Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Kyle Pitts is the TE15 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 outings this season. Pitts has a 19.8% target share with 46.7 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 17.8% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and four deep targets. Pitts has a wonderful matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He could easily post his fifth TE1 outing this week.
Last week, with Cole Kmet back in the lineup, Loveland led the way with a 51.2% route share, but he only had an 11.1% target share with 55 receiving yards and an 8.7% first-read share. With that type of usage, he’s only a low-end steaming option this week. Loveland is tied for third on the team in red zone targets (four) while also seeing two deep targets. Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Zach Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks this season. Ertz has two deep targets and five red zone targets this season. Ertz has a 17.3% target share with 34.5 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. Ertz is a strong streaming option this week at tight end. Miami has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 5, Theo Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, 41.3 receiving yards per game, 1.39 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. He has run hot with touchdowns with four scores in those six games. In those six games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Johnson is only a low-end streaming option this week at tight end. Green Bay has allowed the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game and the lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Johnson could score again this week and save his fantasy day, though. Green Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
Mark Andrews has finished as a TE1 in each of the last two games, but touchdowns fueled it. Since Week 9, Andrews has been the TE5 and TE9 in weekly scoring with three red zone targets and three scores. Since Week 8, he hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game or finished with more than 34 receiving yards. It has been a tough season for Andrews. We can’t depend on him to score weekly to float his fantasy value. Overall, he is the TE19 in fantasy points per game, with a 16% target share, 27.1 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 21.1% first-read share. The Browns have held tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game. Sit Andrews this week.
Last week, Njoku’s route share dipped to 48.8% with only a 6.3% target share and a 7.4% first-read share. If Njoku’s only a part-time player now, he’s off the fantasy radar. I don’t know if that was a one-week blip or a sign of things to come, but I can’t play him this week until we see if that is the beginning of a usage trend.
Since Week 5, Otton has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 21.4% target share with 63.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. Otton has zero touchdowns in this five-game sample, which isn’t surprising when you consider that he has ZERO red zone targets or deep targets during this stretch. I don’t want to stream Otton this week. You’re just point chasing. Buffalo has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
In his first game as the Packers’ starting tight end this season, Musgrave had a 76.2% route share with an 8.3% target share, 23 receiving yards, and 0.72 yards per route run. Musgrave had a 3.3 aDOT and a 15.8% first-read share. This isn’t the matchup to look to stream Musgrave against. The Giants have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per reception, and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dalton Schultz has been on a heater with TE7 and TE4 weekly scoring finishes in the last two games. Since Week 3, Schultz has had an 18.5% target share, 54.4 receiving yards per game, 1.75 yards per route run, and a 20.2% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had four red zone targets and three deep targets. This isn’t the week to chase points, though. Schultz has a rough matchup this week. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game, the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game, and the eighth-lowest yards per reception.
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