Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Hunter Henry is set up to crush this week with one of the best defensive matchups for a tight end. Henry is the TE20 in fantasy points per game with a 15.5% target share, 38.4 receiving yards per game, 1.46 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets this season and five deep targets. The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dallas Goedert is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.8% target share with 39.6 receiving yards per game with 1.50 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Goedert is second on the team with seven red zone targets and has also seen six deep targets. In Week 1, Dallas utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps, which I expect them to have a similar defensive game plan in Week 12. In Week 1, Goedert secured all seven of his targets with 44 scoreless receiving yards (TE14 for the week). He should be busy this week again. Against two high, he is second on the team with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.69 yards per route run. Dallas has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Jake Ferguson is the TE4 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.1% target share with 40 receiving yards per game, 1.35 yards per route run, and a 22.3% first-read share. He leads Dallas with 16 red zone targets and has three deep targets. Expect Ferguson to be a big part of Dallas’s passing game this week with the coverage matchup. Philly utilized two high in Week 1 with 57.1% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Ferguson is tied for the team lead with CeeDee Lamb with a 25% target per route run rate and is second with 1.51 yards per route run. I don’t expect Ferguson to be efficient this week, but he should see a heavy workload. Philly has limited tight ends to the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.
Kyle Pitts is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with an 18.9% target share, 43.4 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. He has five red zone targets and four deep targets. The Saints have the fifth-highest single high rate (59.2%). Against single-high, Pitts is second on the team with a 24% target per route run rate with 1.53 yards per route run. Pitts should operate as the clear second option in the passing attack this week. The Saints are a middle-of-the-road team against tight ends, ranking 16th in receiving yards per game and 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed. Pitts could easily be a TE1 again this week.
In Tyler Shough‘s two starts, Juwan Johnson has had a 15.1% target share, 61.5 receiving yards per game, 3.00 yards per route run, and an 11.8% first-read share. He was the TE9 and TE3 in fantasy scoring in those weeks, seeing two red-zone targets and a deep target. Johnson should flirt with TE1 value again this week. The Falcons haven’t given up much to tight ends this season because they have faced the second-fewest tight end targets per game, but they have given up the fourth-highest yards per reception to the position.
Since Week 10, Barner has had a 72.4% route share, a 17.9% target share, 35 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and a 10.3% first-read share. The Titans’ defense has the third-highest two-high rate (57.5%). Across their last two games, Barner has had a 33% target per route run rate and 2.24 yards per route run against two high. Across the last five games, Tennessee has ranked 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Barner is a viable streaming option at tight end this week.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
Mark Andrews has been boom or bust this season, but he’s currently riding a hot streak with three consecutive TE1 weekly finishes (TE5, TE9, TE5). Across his last three games, he has four touchdowns, which have helped immensely as he hasn’t had more than 32 receiving yards in any of these games. Andrews leads the team with nine red zone targets. He has a 16.4% target share with 27.6 receiving yards per game, 1.43 yards per route run, and a 21.7% first-read share. Andrews will need a touchdown to pay off again this week, but he might get it. The Jets have allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the eighth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends, but they have also surrendered the third-most receiving touchdowns per game.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 37.6 receiving yards per game, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In those eight games, he has seven red zone targets, two deep targets, and five touchdowns. Johnson has four TE1 weekly finishes this season. Johnson is a middling streaming option at tight end this season. If he scores a touchdown, he likely flirts with low-end TE1 production, but if he doesn’t, he’ll be a locked-in TE2. Detroit has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 15th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
Since Week 5, Otton has been the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly performances (TE11, TE6). He has been a decent bet for volume and borderline TE1 production when the matchup has been right. I don’t think that this is the week to stream Otton. Since Week 5, Otton has had 20.9% target share, 57.8 receiving yards per game, 1.99 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. During this six-game stretch, he has only one red zone target and zero deep targets or touchdowns. His chances of scoring a touchdown aren’t great weekly, as he isn’t getting the high-leverage usage to increase those odds. The Rams are 15th in receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. They have also yielded the third-fewest yards per reception, so don’t expect Otton to be efficient with his volume this week.
T.J. Hockenson has had a disappointing season as the TE26 in fantasy points per game. In his five games with J.J. McCarthy, he has had a 12.9% target share, 17 receiving yards per game, 0.68 yards per route run, and a 13.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and zero TE1 weekly finishes. Green Bay has allowed the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends. Sit Hockenson this week.
Last week, Musgrave had only a 34.5% route share and a 7.7% target share. Anyone hoping that he was going to assume the “Tucker Kraft” role in this passing offense is kidding themselves at this point. Musgrave isn’t fantasy viable and droppable.
Since Week 4, Taylor has been the TE24 in fantasy points per game with a 74.3% route share, a 19.5% target share, 33.3 receiving yards per game, 1.26 yards per route run, and a 20.5% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had seven red zone targets and one touchdown. Taylor is best left on the bench this week. Baltimore ranks 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends while also giving up the tenth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game.
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