Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Sam Darnold might be the QB20 in fantasy points per game, but he has been a QB1 in weekly scoring in three of his last five games (QB10, QB2, QB9). The problem for Darnold hasn’t been his play, but the passing volume of the Seattle offense. He ranks 26th in dropbacks this season despite ranking second in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards per game, second in hero throw rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. Darnold could be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed the second-most yards per attempt, the tenth-highest success rate per dropback, the third-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the sixth-most passing yards per game.
Last week’s monster game from Jordan Love has pushed him up to the QB12 in fantasy points per game, but that was only the third game for the season, with Love surpassing 20 fantasy points and his second QB1 weekly scoring outing. That’s not to say that Love isn’t playing well this season because he is. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing yards per game and CPOE, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. Love should have another solid game this week against a Panthers’ pass defense that, since Week 4, has allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the tenth-highest passer rating.
Jared Goff has been playing amazing football, but it hasn’t translated into fantasy success as the QB17 in fantasy points per game. He has one QB1 weekly scoring outing on his 2025 resume. Among 45 qualifying passers, Goff ranks sixth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing touchdowns, and sixth in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. Goff should rip the Minny pass defense apart. Since Week 4, Minnesota has allowed the highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the third-highest CPOE. During that stretch, they have also given up the highest completion percentage and highest passer rating to downfield passing. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (42%). That won’t save them this week, though, as Goff also has the highest yards per attempt and the second-highest passer rating against the blitz.
Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his storied career as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks third in passing yards per game, first in passing touchdowns and hero throw rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. The Saints’ pass defense is playing better, but I’m not scared of this unit at all. Since Week 4, New Orleans is 16th in yards per attempt, 20th in success rate per dropback, and has allowed the eighth-highest CPOE. Stafford should flirt with strong QB1 production again this week.
Since Week 4, Jaxson Dart has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, his rushing production has dropped off with only 5.5 rushing attempts and 14 rushing yards per game after starting his NFL career with at least 54 rushing yards in each of his first three games. Dart has scored on the ground in four of five games. I don’t see his rushing touchdown equity going away, though. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, ninth in hero throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. Dart should have another strong game in Week 9. The 49ers’ pass defense has been struggling. Since Week 4, they have allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback. During that stretch, San Francisco also ranks dead last in pressure rate, so Dart should have time to deal from the pocket.
Caleb Williams has finished as the QB20 or lower in weekly scoring in three of his past four games. He’s the QB14 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he hasn’t managed more than 25 rushing yards in any game. Among 45 qualifying passers, Williams is one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the league, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, 39th in highly accurate throw rate, 41st in catchable target rate, and having the fifth-highest off-target rate. If the Bears don’t continue winning, don’t be surprised if we see Tyson Bagent this season. Cincy should act as a one-week cologne to cover Caleb Williams‘ smelly play on the football field. Since Week 4, the Bengals have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
Outside of his blowup performance against Kansas City, Trevor Lawrence has had one QB1 outing this season. He is the QB18 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Lawrence should be a serviceable QB2 this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has ranked 16th in passing yards per game, 14th in CPOE, and given up the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
Geno Smith has hit rock bottom as the QB32 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 36th in fantasy points per dropback, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and 26th in yards per attempt. Smith could have an unexpected bounce-back game this week. Jacksonville’s pass defense has struggled since Week 4, giving up the fifth-most yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest CPOE, and the highest success rate per dropback.
Sit’em
The last two games for Bo Nix have dramatically helped his full-season totals as he’s now the QB7 in fantasy points per game. As a passer, his numbers are still rough to look at. Among 45 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in catchable target rate, and he has the 11th-highest off-target rate. I don’t want to play Nix this week unless I’m out of other options. Since Week 4, Houston has been a shutdown pass defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt and CPOE, and the lowest passing yards per game and success rate per dropback. Nix will have to display some 2024 magic this week to overcome this matchup.
C.J. Stroud has had encouraging QB1 outings in two of his last three games (QB1, QB11), but he’s still the QB16 in fantasy points per game, and that’s how he should be viewed this week as a QB2 in fantasy. Among 45 qualifying passers, Stroud ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and he has the seventh-highest off-target rate. Despite losing Patrick Surtain, Denver will still field one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 4, they have held passers to the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback.
Cam Ward is the QB35 in fantasy points per game, with only three games this season with at least 11.2 fantasy points. If we want to look at it as a glass-half-full situation, he has two of those games over the last two weeks, but that’s still a low bar to clear. Among 45 qualifying passers, Ward ranks 37th or lower in yards per attempt, highly accurate throw rate, catchable target rate, and fantasy points per dropback. He faces a tough pass defense that, since Week 4, has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. As usual, this week’s advice is to sit Ward.
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