Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. We’ve started the year off strong and have reached a valuable point in the NBA season where we’ve gotten enough data to make some big stands on plays, while still being ahead of market adjustments. The Pistons have been a fun surprise and would be a fun team to continue their winning ways, while the Western Conference has been pretty straightforward at the top.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a seven- or eight-game slate tonight, which is the perfect level of games in my opinion. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $11,800
- FanDuel: $12,300
Do you really need much convincing on Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight? The Bucks are 6.5-point underdogs against Cleveland with a game total sitting at 236.5 points, which means this should be competitive and high-scoring.
Antetokounmpo’s usage is through the roof, and he’s playing heavy minutes every night. We’ve already seen multiple 80-point outings from him this year. It’s hard to say Antetokounmpo doesn’t have the highest floor and ceiling on the entire slate, especially on DraftKings without Nikola Jokic. If you can afford him, you build around Antetokounmpo. Simple as that.
- DraftKings: $10,800
- FanDuel: $11,400
This honestly might be the first time I’ve been hesitant to put Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a core play. First time for everything. Not because I doubt him. Given the fact that this game might be over before halftime with the Thunder as a 17.5-point favorite and with a 224 total, there’s an avenue Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t pay off. Still, I don’t expect that to be the case.
The Thunder guard is the king of consistency. Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to score fewer than 40 DraftKings points in a game this season, and you can’t even say that about Antetokounmpo. In the many blowouts Oklahoma City has caused, Gilgeous-Alexander still plays a major role and plays around 30 minutes on average in those matchups. His usage rate is absurd, and there aren’t many top-tier options I really love at the point guard spot. I’m keeping it safe and sticking with a healthy handful of Gilgeous-Alexander.
- DraftKings: $9,500
- FanDuel: $9,500
With no Jalen Brunson, the offense is going to run through Karl-Anthony Towns tonight, and you can’t exactly ask for a better matchup. Miami runs at the fastest pace in the league with a subpar offense. The improved possession rate and projected usage rate make it clear why Towns comes in as one of the higher rostered options tonight, especially with the Heat banged up.
This game features a one-possession spread, so Towns could see additional late-game minutes and usage to put him over his 55-point projection. I understand I already covered Antetokounmpo as my favorite play, but Towns is close behind, and there’s a path to roster both options with the value options on today’s slate.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,800
- FanDuel: $8,900
I’ll be getting to Cleveland a fair amount here, as I also like Donovan Mitchell on this slate, but value other Cleveland choices enough that I haven’t covered him here. Evan Mobley is severely underpriced on DraftKings, and that might make him the best pure value play on the slate tonight, despite a near $8,000 price tag on DraftKings.
Mobley is averaging 43 DraftKings points and is very capable of getting over 50, as he did against Memphis on Saturday. Rostership is still early, but the Cavs frontcourt piece will likely be one of the higher-rostered players on today’s slate. On FanDuel, he still makes for a solid GPP play.
- DraftKings: $8,100
- FanDuel: $9,100
Of course, Julius Randle is a friendlier choice on DraftKings today with the $1,000 discount, but he should perform on either site. He’s only had one game all season where he’s produced fewer than 42 DraftKings points, and he’s gone for more than 46 points in seven of his last eight matchups.
Minnesota is heavily favored, and it’s a pace-up spot, so I don’t exactly imagine Randle to be limited at all while maintaining his 27% usage rate. He won’t get the bulk of rostership I expect a usual cash option to get, but he hasn’t shown that ceiling yet to justify a GPP play. Randle will get you your needed 40 points, and you can move on to other things, making him the ideal cash choice.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,800
I can’t say I love the cash choices on today’s slate, but with Toronto holding the highest implied team total, it’s hard to avoid the Raptors tonight against Charlotte. Scottie Barnes has only dipped below 40 DraftKings points three times all season, and he posted 65 against Cleveland last week.
The Hornets’ defense ranks in the bottom five in the league. This isn’t my favorite cash game suggestion I’ve ever made, but given the matchup, it’s hard to pass up.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,100
Again, rostership is still coming in early today, but as of now, it’s looking like Norman Powell will have low rostership. On Friday, he posted 50 DraftKings points against these same Knicks, and he’s been playing consistently with the current look Heat. Of course, Miami plays at a breakneck pace, and the Heat are near the top with a projected team total on today’s slate of 122 points.
Powell has shown his ceiling potential and is averaging a nearly 30% usage rate during his 31 minutes a game. Those are really good numbers for someone who is priced below $7,500 on both sites. I see myself going over the field on Powell tonight against the Knicks at home, especially considering he just posted what he did against them.
Miles McBride, on the other side of this matchup, is also not getting much rosterhship, despite projecting well. His status is still questionable, and he’s super cheap, so I didn’t want to give him his own section, but I had to at least throw him out there as one of the better value plays on the slate today.
- DraftKings: $9,800
- FanDuel: $9,200
It’s not the friendliest of fantasy matchups to have a ceiling output against Toronto, but that’s exactly why LaMelo Ball’s rostership is so low today. He makes for such a great pivot on today’s slate. Ball already has an 85 DraftKings point outing, and that is my shining star reason for putting him in this category. Ball is finally off the injury report for his ankle injury, which has basically kept him sidelined all November. Assuming health, Ball should see the court for 32-34 minutes, and it’s not like the Toronto defense is a brick wall. Charlotte will be playing from behind, and it might just be a “let’s see what you can do, Ball” type game today.
Another option I’ll throw in here is Cade Cunningham for similar reasons with his potential ceiling. His injury status concerns me a bit more with him coming off two missed games, and it’s not exactly like Detroit needs him tonight. Throw Anthony Edwards in here as well. The top-priced guards that aren’t garnering much rostership all have reasons to be in any of your GPP lineups.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $6,200
I’m not exactly sure what DraftKings is doing over here with pricing on Cleveland because there looks to be a handful of solid plays from a value perspective. De’Andre Hunter has been over $6,000 for a while now, and he had a subpar game last time out, but he is still averaging over 30 fantasy points a game. It’s not like they’re even in a crazy difficult matchup or have a big change in their rotation to justify the near $2,000 price drop.
Milwaukee has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing forwards, and Hunter has seen a near 25% usage rate during his near 30 minutes a game he’s averaging. He will be quite the popular play, but Hunter is someone I’m hammering tonight. While we’re at it, if you’re really looking to save money, Sam Merrill is another good value as he should be starting his fourth straight game and play around 25 minutes. Hunter is the preferred play, however.
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $4,400
For a clear punt play, it’s looking like Bogdan Bogdanovic might be your best bet. The Clippers are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and it’s still early, so there’s still a lot up in the air about what this rotation is going to end up being. Still, Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., Bradley Beal and Jordan Miller are all out.
Bogdanovic has played 37 and 34 minutes in his last two games and should get the start tonight. While he may not get that much playing time tonight, he’s likely to get around 30, as he’s averaged 26 minutes a night this season. Bogdanovic will likely be highly rostered based on current projections, but even with a baseline of 20 DraftKings points he’s averaging, that is a fine jumping-off point. I project him closer to 25 points, even in a game against Philadelphia with a low total.
- DraftKings: $5,400
- FanDuel: $5,700
If you’re looking for a punt option at center tonight, may I offer Daniel Gafford? It’s certainly not the sexiest option, but with no Anthony Davis, Gafford is in line for plenty of play. He was dealing with an ankle ailment, so I remind you to review injury news before locking anyone into your lineup.
It’s taken a bit of time with no Davis for Gafford to really find himself, but he’s coming off a near 40 DraftKings points performance against Portland, and Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been the same as it once was, allowing the ninth-most points to opposing centers. Rudy Gobert is on the other side here, which is never something to write off, and I actually like Gobert tonight. Given the pricing, Gafford is a decent value play tonight.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
