The NFL completes its first half this weekend. It is moving time for fantasy football managers who have fallen behind in the standings. Check out some of the key offense trends at the midseason point below.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency
This series uses expected points added (EPA). For more information on EPA, click here.
Offenses Trending Up
New England Patriots
The Patriots have won five straight. New England has scored more than 30 points in three of those contests. They are 10th in the NFL in total yardage per game (353.1).
Drake Maye has arrived. He is the fantasy QB3 and is responsible for 17 of the Patriots’ 22 touchdowns. He leads the NFL in completion rate (75.2%) and is averaging nine yards per attempt.
New England’s passing game is very efficient. They rank 26th in pass rate, but ninth in passing yardage per game (240.5). This has made for the third-best EPA/pass (0.22) in the league.
Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are both top-30 fantasy receivers. Diggs is a great buy-low candidate. He is smashing his career reception rate, but has only one touchdown this season.
Look for the Patriots to look Diggs’ way in the red zone more down the stretch. They are 19th in red-zone conversion rate, and Diggs has caught six of his eight targets inside the 20-yard line this season.
Boutte is a premier keeper pick. He is on pace for a 1,000-yard season with five touchdowns already. His overall average draft position (ADP) was 306.
Hunter Henry is the fantasy TE7. He is second in targets (34) on the team, but can be shopped in trade packages to fill more significant slots in a lineup. His four touchdowns have been concentrated, with him scoring in three games.
The running game would be the piece of this team to avoid in fantasy lineups. Neither Rhamondre Stevenson nor TreVeyon Henderson has eclipsed 300 yards playing in all eight games.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a top-10 scoring team that leans toward the passing game but also produces on the ground.
Bo Nix has thrown 15 touchdowns, which is tied for third-best in the NFL. Denver is 10th in EPA/pass (0.03) due to a low sack total and the sixth-best red-zone conversion rate in the league (70.4%).
As the fantasy QB5, Nix is an every-week starter who has room to grow. If Nix boosts his completion rate in the middle of drives, his production will jump with his ability to punch it in. He has three rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game.
Courtland Sutton is the fantasy WR13 and produces on lucrative receptions. Sutton is sixth among receivers with at least 45 targets in yards per catch (14.5). He is excellent at making contested catches and has shown consistency with his yardage totals week over week this year.
Troy Franklin jumped in the fantasy receiver rankings thanks to a big game last week. He is going to be more touchdown dependent with a smaller figure in yards per catch (10.8) and a lower reception rate (63.5).
The Denver running game runs heavily to the outside and sees few stacked boxes. J.K. Dobbins is the fantasy RB16, while RJ Harvey is RB26.
Look out for Harvey in the second half of the season. The rookie has five total touchdowns this season versus four for Dobbins. Harvey is an interesting target at the trade deadline at a potentially low cost.
Players Trending Up
- DeVonta Smith: DeVonta Smith is the NFL receiving leader over the last three weeks (267). The Eagles’ pass rate is up 8% from 2024.
- Oronde Gadsden: Oronde Gadsden is 11th overall in fantasy scoring in half-PPR in his last three games. He has an 84.4% reception rate on the season.
- D’Andre Swift: D’Andre Swift has gained nearly 400 total yards in the last three games. He is the fantasy RB11, but has been ruled out for Week 9.
Efficiency Statistics
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | QB Pressure % | Sacks |
| Indianapolis Colts | 33.8 | 385.3 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 68.4% | 8.30 | 34.8% | 9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 26.8 | 378.3 | 0.14 | 0.2 | 0.07 | 70.6% | 7.34 | 22.6% | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | 27.6 | 359.1 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0 | 70.0% | 8.45 | 31.6% | 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | 29.6 | 382.9 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 64.3% | 7.32 | 25.5% | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 30.8 | 384.1 | 0.1 | 0.17 | -0.01 | 64.5% | 7.06 | 30.4% | 10 |
| Detroit Lions | 30.7 | 357.3 | 0.07 | 0.16 | -0.02 | 72.4% | 8.06 | 31.1% | 13 |
| New England Patriots | 26.6 | 353.1 | 0.06 | 0.22 | -0.12 | 55.2% | 8.16 | 39.6% | 28 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 26.0 | 304.4 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 85.0% | 7.49 | 38.9% | 25 |
| Denver Broncos | 25.9 | 356.9 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 70.4% | 6.24 | 23.6% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 25.0 | 360.1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | -0.12 | 56.7% | 8.06 | 28.9% | 11 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 23.5 | 378.5 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 46.4% | 6.34 | 43.1% | 23 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 25.0 | 297.1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 73.7% | 6.82 | 24.7% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24.6 | 323.0 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.04 | 50.0% | 6.88 | 36.3% | 17 |
| Chicago Bears | 24.0 | 350.1 | -0.02 | 0 | -0.05 | 47.8% | 6.63 | 30.6% | 12 |
| Houston Texans | 21.9 | 328.7 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.04 | 42.1% | 5.98 | 31.1% | 15 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 27.6 | 350.6 | -0.03 | 0.11 | -0.17 | 68.0% | 8.42 | 29.7% | 9 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 25.3 | 318.5 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 51.9% | 6.63 | 35.1% | 24 |
| Washington Commanders | 23.4 | 334.4 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.02 | 75.0% | 6.25 | 33.4% | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 21.9 | 310.3 | -0.04 | 0 | -0.1 | 55.6% | 5.33 | 37.2% | 24 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 20.0 | 348.6 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.11 | 52.0% | 6.06 | 34.3% | 16 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20.9 | 334.9 | -0.06 | -0.12 | 0.02 | 50.0% | 5.24 | 30.2% | 20 |
| New York Giants | 21.6 | 325.3 | -0.08 | -0.11 | -0.04 | 48.1% | 5.76 | 40.2% | 25 |
| Miami Dolphins | 20.0 | 291.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.09 | 57.7% | 5.03 | 29.9% | 20 |
| Carolina Panthers | 19.3 | 316.4 | -0.1 | -0.18 | 0 | 58.3% | 5.02 | 38.6% | 19 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 17.1 | 342.7 | -0.1 | -0.14 | -0.06 | 45.0% | 6.18 | 31.0% | 10 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21.8 | 284.9 | -0.11 | -0.17 | 0.01 | 68.2% | 5.10 | 32.4% | 19 |
| New York Jets | 21.0 | 300.1 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.1 | 57.9% | 4.84 | 47.4% | 31 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 22.1 | 296.6 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.17 | 54.5% | 5.02 | 34.6% | 28 |
| New Orleans Saints | 16.0 | 295.0 | -0.17 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 42.9% | 4.70 | 38.1% | 20 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 14.7 | 276.4 | -0.21 | -0.17 | -0.26 | 38.9% | 4.35 | 36.5% | 19 |
| Cleveland Browns | 15.8 | 263.5 | -0.25 | -0.36 | -0.06 | 57.1% | 3.64 | 40.4% | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 13.8 | 248.8 | -0.26 | -0.33 | -0.13 | 50.0% | 3.82 | 38.8% | 34 |
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