Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- LAR -6.5, O/U 49.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1/2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | Out |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2/3 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB2/3 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | WR1 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | WR4 |
| Tez Johnson | WR | WR3/4 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR4/5 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1/2 |
Rams Players & Weekly Rankings
| Matthew Stafford | QB | QB1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Blake Corum | RB | RB3 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | WR1 |
| Davante Adams | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Whittington | WR | WR5 |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
N/A
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Baker Mayfield came through as the QB7 for the week, and he could flirt with QB1 production again this week. Mayfield is the QB13 in fantasy points per game this season. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 15th in passing yards per game, tenth in passing touchdowns (tied), 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. He faces a Rams’ pass defense that has been tough since Week 7, giving up the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating and passing touchdowns (tied), and ranked 15th in CPOE. The matchup with the Rams isn’t easy, but across their last four games, they have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so Mayfield should have time in the pocket this week. He’ll be forced to keep pace with the Rams’ high-octane offense.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Last week, Rachaad White still led the Buccaneers’ backfield with a 58.8% snap rate and 48.5% route share. He had 12 touches and 62 total yards while Sean Tucker stole the show. White had only one red zone rushing attempt. I expect a more split backfield this week, with the team stating that Sean Tucker will get more work. Among 54 qualifying backs, White ranks 23rd in missed tackle rate and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. He has a horrible matchup this week. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, and the seventh-lowest rushing success rate. White is a snooze-worthy flex play that will disappoint if he doesn’t score a touchdown.
Sean Tucker exploded last week with 21 touches, 140 total yards, and three touchdowns as the RB2 for the week. The matchup was wonderful, and the Bucs decided to run the ball down the Bills’ throats. Tucker played 45.6% of the snaps with only an 18.2% route share and a 7.1% target share. He led the way with four red zone rushing attempts last week. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tucker will likely split the work with White this week and probably grab a higher route share. Tucker is a touchdown-dependent flex this week with a horrible matchup. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, and the seventh-lowest rushing success rate.
Since Week 6, Johnson has been the WR32 in fantasy points per game with a 14.3% target share, 38.8 receiving yards per game, 1.29 yards per route run, and a 13.9% first-read share. In those five games, he has four touchdowns, five red zone targets, and four deep targets. The touchdown hot streak has propped up his fantasy value. Johnson isn’t a bet for immense volume, so he’ll need to score a touchdown to pay off this week. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, but they have also held the position to zero scores and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target. It’s tough to bet on Johnson to make the most of limited volume this week, but if he does get into the end zone, he will be a decent flex play. He’s a coin flip in Week 12. I lean more towards sitting him this week, but it depends on your fantasy options. I also worry that Johnson could see his route share dip with Chris Godwin back this week. Godwin will cut into Johnson or Sterling Shepard’s route share (or possibly both).
Chris Godwin opened this week with a limited practice (fibula). He upgraded to a full session on Thursday before having only a limited practice on Friday. Godwin looks on track to return to the field this week. I can’t plug him into a lineup, though. I think Tampa Bay might have learned its lesson in Week 4 by letting Godwin play 80.3% of snaps in his first game back. I expect them to play him in a part-time role this week, which means he can’t be trusted for fantasy.
Since Week 5, Otton has been the TE14 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly performances (TE11, TE6). He has been a decent bet for volume and borderline TE1 production when the matchup has been right. I don’t think that this is the week to stream Otton. Since Week 5, Otton has had 20.9% target share, 57.8 receiving yards per game, 1.99 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. During this six-game stretch, he has only one red zone target and zero deep targets or touchdowns. His chances of scoring a touchdown aren’t great weekly, as he isn’t getting the high-leverage usage to increase those odds. The Rams are 15th in receiving yards per game and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. They have also yielded the third-fewest yards per reception, so don’t expect Otton to be efficient with his volume this week.
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bryce Young | QB | QB1/2 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | RB4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | WR1/2 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | TBD |
| Jalen Coker | WR | TBD |
| Ja’Tavion Sanders | TE | TE2/3 |
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Brock Purdy | QB | QB1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | RB1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | RB3 |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR | WR2/3 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | WR2/3 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | WR5 |
| George Kittle | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week, Bryce Yong went legend mode as the QB2 in fantasy behind only Josh Allen. Take a second and let that sink in. Yeah, I don’t think anyone saw that coming, but it happened. Last week, Carolina was 14th in pass rate over expectation, which was only the second game this season where they finished with a positive value in that department (first time since Week 2). Last week was only the second time this season that Young has surpassed 7.0 yards per attempt and 200 passing yards in a game. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 28th in passing yards per game, 38th in highly accurate throw rate, and 29th in catchable target rate. I worry that this could be a one-off outlier performance for Young, but he has another nice matchup this week against a struggling 49ers’ pass defense. We’ll see if he can build off last week’s monster game. Since Week 7, San Francisco has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest CPOE.
Last week, Brock Purdy made his triumphant return to the huddle as the QB5 for the week. Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, eighth in CPOE, and 15th in catchable target rate. Purdy is a strong QB1 again this week with a middle-of-the-road matchup against Carolina. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 20th in CPOE and success rate per dropback.
Finally, Tetairoa McMillan got the passing volume and level of quarterback play to show what he can really do. After last week, McMillan is the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying wide receivers, he is 16th in target share (24.2%) and yards per route run (2.10), fifth in air-yard share (42.7%), 13th in receiving yards per game (68), 15th in first-read share (29.6%), and eighth in first downs per route run (0.123). Among the same sample of wide receivers, McMillan is fourth in red zone targets and tied for 21st in deep targets. This week, he faces a 49ers’ defense that, since Week 5, has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (56.2%). Against single high, McMillan has a team-leading 26% target per route run rate and 2.27 yards per route run. McMillan should have another strong game this week.. Since Week 7, the 49ers have allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Ricky Pearsall had a dud game in his first action since his knee injury. If you read last week’s Primer, you weren’t surprised by this and should have sat him. Last week, Pearsall had a 77.8% route share, only a 7.7% target share, one reception, zero first reads, and zero receiving yards. This week is a wonderful opportunity and a matchup setup for Pearsall to bounce back. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the 11th-highest rate (56%). This matters immensely because Pearsall’s coverage splits have been massive. Against single high, he leads the team with a 23.6% target share, 3.87 yards per route run, and a 31.9% first-read share. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, so the matchup won’t be easy for Pearsall this week, but I think he can overcome it.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Since Week 7, Jennings has been the WR38 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, 48.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 33% first-read share. During those five games, Jennings had ranked second in red zone targets (five) and led the team with five deep targets. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single high at the 11th-highest rate (56%). Since Week 7, against single high, Jennings has had a 21.9% target share, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 31.1% first-read share. Overall, against single high, Jennings has had a 21.7% target share, 1.66 yards per route run, and a 30.6% first-read share. Jennings could have a solid week, but I expect Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle to lead the way for the San Francisco passing attack. Since Week 7, Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Xavier Legette practiced in full all week (hip) and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 12. Legette is the WR56 in fantasy points per game, who has had some spike weeks with two top-15 weekly finishes this season. On the other side of that coin is that he has six weeks as the WR50 or lower. Legette has a 14.8% target share with 1.04 yards per route run and a 20.1% first-read share. He is second on the team with ten red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a 49ers’ secondary that has utilized single high at the ninth-highest rate (54.8%). Against single high, Legette’s numbers have suffered witha 14.1% target share and 0.88 yards per route run. Maybe the corner matchup can help him this week, but he’s likely still just a low-end flex play. Since Week 7, the 49ers have allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 8, Jalen Coker has had a 75.8% route share, a 10.5% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.18 yards per route run, and a 12.5% first-read share. The Panthers have been force-feeding volume to Xavier Legette all season, which has been head-scratching at best. In his last four games, Coker has zero red zone targets and one deep target. This week, he faces a 49ers’ secondary that has utilized single high at the ninth-highest rate (54.8%). Since Week 8, against single high, Coker’s yards per route run has jumped to 1.69 with a 16.2% first-read share. Those aren’t overwhelmingly positive numbers, but they aren’t horrible either. Coker is a solid flex play this week. If I were debating between Xavier Legette or Jalen Coker for a flex spot this week, it would be Coker. The bump versus single high is encouraging. Also, since Week 7, the 49ers have been even worse at defending the slot. Since Week 7, they have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and PPR points per target to the slot.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
N/A
BUF vs. HOU | NYJ vs. BAL | NYG vs. DET | PIT vs. CHI | NE vs. CIN | MIN vs. GB | IND vs. KC | SEA vs. TEN | JAC vs. ARI | CLE vs. LV | PHI vs. DAL | ATL vs. NO | TB vs. LAR | CAR vs. SF
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
