Fantasy Football Championship Week is upon us, and there is plenty going on in the FantasyPros Discord server. First and foremost, if you are competing for a championship, congratulations to all on a job well done! I just wanted to thank everyone who has submitted questions and read this column throughout the season. Hopefully, some of this advice has been helpful to you along the way. I know I’ve had some misses, but I would also like to think I’ve had enough hits to make up for it. Anyway, since it is Championship Week, we’ll keep this limited to start/sit questions.
Full disclosure – I just got home from vacation late Monday night. As I am going through the questions, I am making sure I didn’t miss anything major with regard to injuries and the like. All my answers below are based on my initial leans heading into Week 17. I usually run my projections on Tuesday night and upload my rankings to the FantasyPros’ Expert Platform on Wednesday morning. I would advise circling back to ensure that my early reads match up with my projections. Now let’s get to the questions and take that final step towards a championship!
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Waiver Wire & Lineup Advice
Michael Carter, Kyle Monangai, Blake Corum. Pick 2
Kyle Monangai and Blake Corum are quite similar to me. They are both “1B” type backs in their respective backfields. Both players get more volume than typical backup running backs. They also both have a knack for finding the end zone. However, their volume is somewhat capped, and they do very little in the receiving game. Monangai and Corum have combined for 21 receptions in 30 games. Michael Carter has 28 catches in 11 games. He is also likely to get a more sizeable workload as his team’s starting running back. Given that and a very favorable matchup against Cincinnati, Carter is the first one I am starting.
The decision between Corum and Monangai feels very much like a toss-up. The Rams and Bears both rank top three in adjusted line yards on offense. Both Atlanta and San Francisco rank bottom six in adjusted line yards defensively. The Falcons and 49ers have both allowed nine rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. I am giving Monangai the slight edge because I think he is more likely to help you if he doesn’t score a touchdown. Monangai has finished as a top 30 fantasy back in Half-PPR leagues in each of the past three weeks, even though he has failed to score in all three games. Corum’s best weekly finish all season in a game in which he didn’t score was RB33. I also think Atlanta’s red zone defense is slightly stouter than San Francisco’s.
Who do I start for my Fantasy Super Bowl? Jalen Hurts vs. Buffalo or Caleb Williams vs. San Francisco
Am I crazy for preferring Hurts? Even though Caleb Williams has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games, he only has one top 12 weekly finish to show for it. We do not think of Hurts as a huge volume passer, but he only averages about 19 fewer passing yards per game than Williams. Hurts also has one more touchdown pass than Williams does this season. Factor in the potential for a “tush push” touchdown, and I give Hurts the slight nod over Williams.
I will say this – the early weather report for Buffalo this weekend is not good. There is potential for snow and high wind, but I would not go overboard factoring that into my calculus. We have seen countless quarterbacks put up numbers in bad weather. Hurts had 70 rushing yards and a touchdown in the snow in last year’s playoffs. Josh Allen‘s famous touchdown pass to himself last year occurred in the snow. So, unless we are talking about a major blizzard or wind speeds that wreak havoc on the passing game, I would still lean towards Hurts. I just wanted to mention that.
Ladd McConkey, Blake Corum, or Luther Burden III if he plays. I have Monangai in right now, PPR. Also, Matthew Stafford or Brock Purdy. Thanks to you folks in the championship week
Well, now I feel better about choosing Monangai over Corum earlier. So, thank you for that. Onto your questions. As of right now, I am choosing Ladd McConkey over both Blake Corum and Luther Burden III this week. I realize the volume from McConkey has been anything but ideal, especially recently. However, in a PPR league, I’m taking him over Corum, who contributes nothing in the passing game. McConkey has caught at least four passes in 11-of-15 games, giving him a higher floor than Corum. Burden is certainly interesting if he can play this week, especially if Rome Odunze continues to sit. I am not opposed to starting Burden over McConkey in that scenario. Burden’s matchup is much more favorable versus San Francisco than McConkey’s against Houston.
Week 17 QB championship Aaron Rodgers @ Cle, Marcus Mariota vs. Dal, or Kirk Cousins vs. LAR
My early read is that Marcus Mariota is not playing in Week 17. The Washington Commanders play on Thursday, and the early game at that. Mariota did not practice on Monday, and Washington basically has nothing to play for. Therefore, I am removing him from the equation. Even if he plays, there is a risk for reinjury, and it is just not worth it in my opinion.
Between the two grizzled veterans, I am leaning towards Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers. The main reason is that I am not sure Pittsburgh will rely upon Rodgers to do much in this game. The Cleveland Browns are 1-6 in their last seven games and have averaged 19 points per game in that span. They have also sprung major leaks in their run defense in recent weeks. Cleveland has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in four consecutive games. Rodgers is more likely to play game manager than superhero on Sunday. Meanwhile, Cousins will almost certainly have to air it out for Atlanta to remain competitive against the Rams. Los Angeles has quietly allowed four straight quarterbacks to post top 12 weekly finishes against them. Even if Cousins doesn’t finish that high, I expect him to surpass Rodgers this week.
Jaxon Dart or Tyler Shough for the Ship!?!?!
How appropriate is it that we end this column with this question? This is such a testament to the beauty of fantasy football and to the importance of continuing to grind throughout the year. Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough were complete and total afterthoughts during draft season. Both went largely undrafted outside of SuperFlex and Best Ball leagues. And now here we are, deciding between the two for a chance at a fantasy football championship. Kudos to you for landing both quarterbacks and for making it this far.
I mentioned earlier that I just got home from vacation. I was in New Orleans, and I was at the Saints game. Granted, the New York Jets have an abysmal defense, but Shough looks like a viable NFL quarterback from what I saw. More importantly, Kellen Moore seems to trust him. The Saints were playing with an incredible amount of pace. They threw the ball 50 times in a game that they led most of the way. On the flip side, it is hard to ignore the way the New York Giants have utilized Dart recently. Since his return three weeks ago, New York has been a much more run-heavy offense. Dart has just 15 rushing attempts in his last three games after having 55 in his first seven starts. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary have both earned double-digit carries in four of New York’s last five games.
Both Dart and Shough look to have favorable matchups in Week 17. Dart faces the Las Vegas Raiders, who are 2-13 and rank 22nd in defensive DVOA against the pass. Shough goes up against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is 3-12 and ranks 27th in defensive DVOA versus the pass. I am going to pick Shough based on his recent play and a slightly better matchup. I believe that the Saints are more likely to lean on Shough’s playmaking ability than the Giants are to lean on Dart’s. New Orleans is thinner at running back, and I’m not sure we’ll see Alvin Kamara again this year. Give me Shough and good luck taking home that trophy!
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