Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
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NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From A.J. Brown‘s 198 air yards all the way down to Gage Larvadin’s 35 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share, and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 14. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.
Week 14 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data
Top Takeaways From Week 14 Air Yards Data
A.J. Brown Getting His Targets
A.J. Brown complained about not getting his targets and involvement in the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing game, and it has worked. For him. Brown has 46 targets in his last four games and three straight 100-yard games. His 198 air yards in Week 14 led the NFL, and with some more accuracy from Jalen Hurts, he could have had a much bigger day. However, the Eagles are now 1-3 in that span because they have gotten out of the offense that works best for them.
Jalen Hurts is 20th in clean pocket completion percentage this season, according to Player Profiler. He is not the best downfield passer, so when he is prioritizing Brown 10-13 times per game, that takes away from their strength of running the ball. Brown getting almost 200 air yards, a 34% target share, and a 51% air yards share is great for him and for his fantasy managers. But bad for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brian Thomas Jr. Sighting
After three missed games due to injury and three games with under 60 receiving yards, we finally got to witness Brian Thomas Jr. do something positive in 2025. Thomas caught three passes for 87 yards, and while he didn’t set the fantasy world on fire, it was at least a positive first step. Granted, this was with Travis Hunter and Parker Washington not in the lineup in Week 14, but the points count all the same.
Still, what’s most encouraging is how Thomas was used. His six targets (the lowest of anyone in the top seven in air yards) turned into 153 air yards, or a 25.5 average depth of target (aDOT). That number was the fifth-highest in the league and trailed only Ladd McConkey as players with that many air yards with more than five targets. If Thomas is going to get used that way the rest of the season, we may see a dip in catch rate, but the big plays just might make up for it.
Don’t Give Up On Emeka Egbuka
Emeka Egbuka is certainly going through it. After dominating the league in his first five weeks and then reappearing for one massive game in Week 10, it’s been all downhill for Egbuka since then. Egbuka was top ten in air yards and had nine targets on Sunday, but finished with just two catches for 15 yards. He has had some brutal drops and hasn’t gotten any favors from Baker Mayfield lately, but Emeka Egbuka’s usage remains elite, indicating things have to turn around soon.
Egbuka doesn’t have more than 42 yards in each of the last four weeks and has not scored in that span. However, he has 47 targets in the last five games, so he is still getting fed plenty of looks every game. He also leads all wide receivers and tight ends on his team in red zone opportunities in 2025. The same player who made difficult catches look easy early in the season didn’t just suddenly forget how to catch. The Buccaneers have some favorable games ahead, and Egbuka should get back on track.
Justin Jefferson Rock Bottom
If you sort the table above by lowest market share of air yards to highest market share of air yards, you are going to see Justin Jefferson’s name at the top of the list. That’s because with J.J. McCarthy under center on Sunday, Jefferson had four targets for just 40 air yards. Those 40 air yards were just over 8% of his team’s total, which caused Jefferson to finish with a lowly 11 yards.
This is officially rock bottom. In a game where McCarthy actually performed well, and the Vikings played a terrible defense (Washington), Jefferson was still awful. Jefferson is above 50 yards receiving in just one of his last six games, and he hasn’t scored since Week 9. For a player who was once one of the most explosive deep threats in fantasy football, it’s been difficult to watch the team waste another one of his prime years.
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