Fantasy Football NFL Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways (Week 16)

Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Mike Evans‘ 181 air yards all the way down to DeVonta Smith‘s 43 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 15. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.

Week 15 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Top Takeaways From Week 15 Air Yards Data

Mike Evans Wastes No Time

In his first game back from injury since Week 3 (he briefly tried to come back in Week 7, but was re-injured), Mike Evans was the co-leader in NFL air yards for Week 15. In terms of involvement and usage in the game, Evans jumped right back into elite status. His 12 targets were the third-most among all wide receivers this week, and he finished with 132 receiving yards to go along with his 181 air yards. But the scary thing is, this could have been so, so much better if Evans were a full-go in this game.

Evans only played 55% of snaps last Thursday night. So all of those targets and production came with Evans playing just over half the game. Imagine a scenario where Evans is out there for 80% of snaps and is in a tight game, such as their contest this week against Carolina for the division lead. With a 37.5% target share and a 49.2% air yards share, there is no hesitation in playing Evans anymore, as it’s clear he jumped right back into being Baker Mayfield‘s favorite downfield weapon.

Start Zay Flowers

At first glance, Zay Flowers‘ 89 air yards on five targets doesn’t seem that impressive. But remember the context of this game. The Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals 24-0. Lamar Jackson only threw 12 passes and completed just eight of them. The Ravens didn’t need to throw the ball for most of the second half, as the Bengals consistently beat themselves and failed to show up on offense. Flowers, considering the environment of the game, had about as dominant a game as anyone can have with five targets.

Flowers had a 41.7% target share and a league-leading 69% air yards share. He caught a touchdown from Jackson and was as involved in the passing game as he has been in any game this season. Flowers’ season has been defined by plenty of games with big yards, but light on the touchdowns. As the Ravens try to make their last push to get into the playoffs with three games remaining, look for Flowers to keep being used heavily, especially against New England on Sunday night when the Ravens are going to have to score a lot of points.

Is Matthew Golden Ready?

In a game where Christian Watson left early with an injury, it was Matthew Golden for the Green Bay Packers who led the team in air yards and receiving yards against the Denver Broncos. This is the same Matthew Golden who caught zero passes in Week 14 and caught one pass in Week 11. In fact, Golden has six games this year with three or fewer catches. If Christian Watson misses time with a chest injury, is Golden ready to step up and be the wide receiver they thought they were getting when they took him in the first round last spring?

Golden only had an 11% target share and a 17.4% air yards share, but those will have to increase if Watson is out. His 17.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was one of the highest on the week. If Green Bay takes some long shots his way on Saturday, he could pull down some big receptions and possibly a touchdown.

Back-to-Back for Mack Hollins

Despite only finishing with 41 receiving yards, wide receiver Mack Hollins had an elite day in terms of air yards for New England. His 136 were top 15 in the league, and he also had an elite 56.4% air yards share and 36.4% target share. This is a process over results outcome for Hollins, who was only able to catch four balls from Drake Maye on Sunday. But it looks even better when you consider that this is now two straight games that Mack Hollins has led the Patriots in air yards.

Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte have been relegated to lower in the pecking order, as Drake Maye seems to be focusing on targets for Hollins, Hunter Henry, and TreVeyon Henderson. Hollins might be available in a lot of fantasy leagues right now (he is available in 97% of Yahoo leagues as of Wednesday afternoon). The box score doesn’t tell the whole story here, and the Patriots are likely in for a shootout Sunday night against Baltimore.