If you’re reading this, congrats on still being alive (at least theoretically) in one or more fantasy football leagues. At this very late stage of the fantasy season, there’s only one question to ask yourself when making fantasy football waiver wire pickups: Will I ever start this player in Week 16 or Week 17?
To answer this question, you have to consider not just a player’s individual profile but also your current depth at the relevant position, as well as whether they happen to have appealing matchups in either or both of the next two weeks. Keep this in mind as we dive into the top early pickups for Week 16.
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Early Week 16 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
Michael Carter (RB – ARI) | 7.8% Rostered
Zonovan Knight, who has served as the Cardinals’ No. 1 RB for the second half of the season, was carted off the field today. In his absence, Michael Carter stepped up as the Cardinals’ lead back. He totalled 94 all-purpose yards on 14 carries and four receptions.
Emari Demercado was also involved, especially on passing downs, handling a carry and seeing three targets himself. But, in case those numbers don’t make it obvious, Carter was clearly the lead back. Knight is likely done for the season, and Trey Benson was not activated off injured reserve (IR) this week, officially ending his season. Carter should be Arizona’s No. 1 RB the rest of the way, which makes him worth adding in most formats.
Jawhar Jordan (RB – HOU) | 0% Rostered
Nick Chubb was ruled out heading into Week 15 with a rib injury. That left rookie Woody Marks essentially alone in the Texans’ backfield. But then Marks exited early with an ankle injury. Jawhar Jordan, a sixth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, who had yet to even be active for a game in his career, stepped up as the team’s lead rusher.
Jordan carried the ball 15 times for 101 yards as the Texans easily handled the Cardinals. He also caught both of his two targets for 14 receiving yards, although veteran passing-down back Dare Ogunbowale mostly filled that role. If both Marks and Chubb miss time going forward, Jordan is a must-add as the Texans head into another soft matchup with the hapless Raiders in Week 16.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) | 21.8% Rostered
Luther Burden, a second-round pick in this year’s draft, was an intriguing prospect for fantasy. And he has continued to flash upside all season, including posting some impressive per-route efficiency metrics. The issue is that the rookie has never played a full-time role in Chicago’s offense — he only recently passed Olamide Zaccheaus to be the team’s No. 3 WR behind DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
With Odunze out, Burden had a chance to take a step forward today. Unfortunately, that opportunity was cut short, as he exited early with an ankle injury. But before that injury, Burden seemed to be breaking out, catching six of his seven targets for 84 yards.
Of course, failing to finish his breakout game makes Burden a much less exciting pickup than he might have been. But if he himself seems healthy and if Odunze also seems set to miss more time, Burden is an exciting upside pickup for the fantasy playoffs.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WSH) | 41.9% Rostered
Early on, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was one of the most exciting names of the fantasy season, as the seventh-round rookie came from nowhere to be the Commanders’ lead back. But he struggled with efficiency and eventually lost that role to Chris Rodriguez Jr. — with Jeremy McNichols also involved as the lead receiving back, this was an ugly three-way committee.
But Rodriguez was ruled out this morning with a groin injury. That left Croskey-Merritt and McNichols to split all of the work in the Commanders’ backfield. As has been the case all season, Croskey-Merritt wasn’t involved in the passing game, with zero targets. But he made the most of his 18 carries against the Giants’ terrible run defense, finishing with 96 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Going forward, Croskey-Merritt is worth considering as long as Rodriguez remains sidelined. The Commanders face their other two division rivals, Philadelphia and Dallas, to finish out the fantasy playoffs. Neither of those matchups is as soft as this one was, but Croskey-Merritt could still be viable as a deep-league Flex option.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) | 54% Rostered
Trevor Lawrence had the game of his career in Week 15. He was ridiculously efficient through the air, completing 20-of-32 attempts for 330 yards and five touchdowns. Then he added five carries for 51 yards and yet another score on the ground for good measure. I’ll do the math for you: That’s a whopping 44.3 fantasy points.
Unless we see an unprecedented explosion of quarterback scoring in the second wave of games today, this will be Lawrence’s fifth straight finish as a weekly QB1. Before this week, most of those were backend QB1 finishes, but Lawrence clearly has a ceiling to go with his floor.
Although four of Lawrence’s passing touchdowns today happened to go to running backs, his recent performance has had a lot to do with the arrival of wideout Jakobi Meyers, who has been excellent since landing in Jacksonville in a deadline deal trade. Brian Thomas Jr. also seems to be coming back to life, giving Lawrence a dynamic duo of wide receivers on the outside. Unfortunately, he has a tough matchup next week against an elite Denver defense, but he is definitely in play for Week 17 against the Colts.
David Sills V (WR – ATL) | 0.1% Rostered
Obviously, the 2019 undrafted free agent (UDFA) with 27 career catches is only worth considering in super deep leagues. But in super deep leagues, we need to consider any player who is capable of earning 10 targets. That’s what David Sills did against the Buccaneers this week, catching six of them for 78 yards.
With Drake London sidelined, Sills has served as the Falcons’ No. 2 WR, peaking at a 90% route participation rate on Thursday. Kyle Pitts is likely to keep leading Atlanta’s receiving game, but, especially with Darnell Mooney not doing much, Sills may be able to see enough targets to be relevant.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
