Welcome to the Monday DFS Slate slate and a happy early New Year to everyone. I hope your resolutions include some bigger wins within DFS and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid 10-game slate tonight, so there are plenty of options across the board. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $13,000
- FanDuel: $12,900
If Nikola Jokic is on a slate, it’s hard not to consider him and tonight he makes for a deadly play. The Nuggets-Heat is borderline highest total on the slate so expect some fireworks tonight with the high pacing. The Nuggets big man has scored 106.5 (!!!) and 83 DK points in his last two outings so he’ll likely be owned by about a quarter of contestants tonight, which is pretty high considering how big this slate is. However, because there are 10-games, you should be able to find plenty pay down options to reason going overboard on Jokic.
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $9,400
New York plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA and this game is still at a 246 total. That’s how bad the New Orleans Pelicans are. Their defense is fourth worst in the league, obviously it’s a pace-up spot, and Brunson is going to get a lot of run tonight. Without Josh Hart or Miles McBride, we’ve seen Brunson’s minutes and usage climb in the last two weeks of play while his price tag has been steady. We’ve only seen two games where the former Villanova guard has gone over 60 fantasy points so I prefer him in cash but given the matchup I’ll sprinkle him across the board.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,800
For another high game total I’m in on, we have the Chicago Bulls taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home in the United Center. Despite what it might say for “oprk” next to Edwards’ name, the Bulls have allowed the third most fantasy points to opponents this season. They are second in pace of play and rank 23rd defensively while that gets worse over their last 10 games. Ant has gone over 55 points in four of his last five games but his price tag hasn’t been adjusted for inflation yet. I expect another 50-plus point outing tonight and am surprised at how low owned he is.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,500
If Nikola Jokic is the steak entree, Jamal Murray is the mashed potatoes you have on the side. Nothing flashy, but still a great combination you shouldn’t go without. Like I said before, Miami will increase the pace and offer ample opportunity for points. Murray has only gone under 30 fantasy points once all season and rarely goes below 40. He’s due for the mid 40s this time round and will likely be high owned along with Jokic. Still, his high floor doesn’t break the bank and offers flexibility with your roster elsewhere.
Collin Gillespie (PG/SG – PHO)
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,700
You’ll see a lot of Phoenix options tonight as they take on the Washington Wizards who have allowed the single most fantasy points a game among any NBA team. The Phoenix guard is playing 30-plus minutes a night and is about a fantasy point per minute guy. Even with a decent usage rate, he’s still gone over 35 DK points in five straight outings and is projected to cover that again tonight. He’ll be around 25 percent owned but is well worth it at his price tag. Devin Booker is in a similar boat but obviously a bit more expensive.
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $7,500
To go with the Miami-Denver love, I’ll throw in Norman Powell as another solid cash play. His duel guard-forward eligibility makes it easy to find a roster spot for him while staying at the low price of $7000 on DK. He’ll keep above his floor of 30 fantasy points and tonight I project him closer to 37 against Denver. Powell will continue to see a 27 percent usage rate and 31 minutes without Tyler Herro in the fold which are great numbers to get you on your way to a double up cash.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,300
- FanDuel: $10,900
Despite some disappointing efforts in his last three games, I’m buying a low-owned bounce back out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. Atlanta is one of the friendliest fantasy options in the league, allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing point guards all season. The Thunder are still banged up with Ajay Mitchell questionable tonight so you should see even additional run for the already prolific SGA. The Thunder guard sees a 33 percent usage rate and should play 34 minutes tonight. He’s due for improvement in a big way and at sub-double digit ownership, I will be very overweight on him this slate.
Donovan Mitchell (SG/PG – CLE)
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: $9,500
For another guard option who is under owned, we have Donovan Mitchell. The Cleveland guard has gone up and down recently, scoring below 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games but that third outing he went for 61. He played well against the Spurs in his last outing and Victor Wembanyama is still on a minutes restriction despite returning to starting lineup which can only help Mitchell’s ceiling. Any time someone with a ceiling of 60 plus fantasy points is less than 10 percent owned, they generally make for an ideal GPP play. This game also finishes out the night with a handful of others so there is plenty of room for late swapping to keep your lineups dynamic.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,300
You could put a lot of Phoenix players in this value category including Ryan Dunn, and Jordan Goodwin but I’m riding with Oso Ighodaro tonight against the Washington Wizards. Washington has been the worst defensive team in the league this year while playing at a top 10 rate. They allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers and Ighodaro is seeing additional play of late, averaging over 25 minutes a night in his last five games now that he’s starting. I don’t expect too high a ceiling from his lower usage rate so he sits more as a cash option. But the opportunity will be there for a high floor against the Wizards.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $4,800
For another starter sub-$5k we have Tari Eason taking on the Indiana Pacers. He’s started the last two games and should again tonight while seeing about 26 minutes on the court. Despite the low total, Indiana is a big pace-up spot here while owning a bottom 10 defensive unit with their 6-26 record. After being injured most of the year we haven’t seen much of Eason but he’s already put up a 40 point game and four 30 point outings on DraftKings. I project him right around that tonight to give 6X value, making for a solid cash or GPP play.
- DraftKings: $3,300
- FanDuel: $3,700
If you’re looking for a clear punt play tonight, Asa Newell is your guy. With Jalen Johnson out, Newell slots into the starting lineup for Atlanta. He’ll play around 25 minutes and has decent usage when he’s on the court. The only issue is the opponent. Oklahoma City is deadly defensively and even with all the injuries they’re dealing with still rank second as a unit in their last 10 games. The risk is high for a Newell or Mouhamed Gueye who will also see additional run but man are htye both incredibly cheap GPP plays.
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