Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a good start to the season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
There are five games tonight within an hour of one another, so you have to be on top of late swapping. It’s not the most exciting bunch of games, but it’s still basketball. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $9,600
I’m not sure if anyone has closely followed the New Orleans Pelicans this season, and if you have, I’m sorry. Honestly, if anyone has followed closely, they might not even watch basketball anywhere. The Pelicans are a concerning 3-19, and their defense reflects it, ranking only better than the Wizards on the season.
Their pacing is basically identical to Minnesota, and while positions don’t really mean anything in the NBA anymore, no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than the Pelicans. It helps that Anthony Edwards gets additional positional viability on FanDuel, and his ceiling might be the highest on the slate. He’s been playing well with three 59+ DraftKings point efforts in his last six games. We might see another such performance tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,400
I generally try to avoid typing up LeBron James on these DFS streets just because it always feels like he’s perpetually over-rostered. But tonight, he sets up especially well. The first variable is no Luka Doncic. It’s a limited sample size this season, but without Doncic, James’ usage rate climbs 7%, with his DraftKings +/- differentials climbing by 10.
This should be a close game against Toronto, and the Raptors are actually a pace-up spot for the Lakers. James has only played in five games this season, but we’ve yet to see a classic ceiling performance from him. I’m going to continue believing it’s in him until the day he retires. His floor is raised with the current lineup, and his ceiling is never going away. At a discounted price, he’s a great anchor to your lineups.
- DraftKings: $7,500
- FanDuel: $7,800
It’s not the flashiest of names or the most exciting player, but Derrick White might be the most rostered player tonight with the way things are going. Not only is Boston expecting to be without Jaylen Brown, but they face the Washington Wizards. I know I ragged on the Pelicans earlier, but if you are a consistent Wizards fan, I feel truly bad for you.
There is no defense in Washington, as they rank dead last in the league, but they are still a top-five team when it comes to pace. I mean, think of all that’s missing for Boston here, on the road, mind you, and the Celtics are still double-digit favorites. I prefer White in cash lineups because we haven’t really seen a “got to have it” performance yet, but he still makes for a solid play across the board.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,800
- FanDuel: $6,800
I usually like to ensure a floor with my cash selections, and with Payton Pritchard, it’s not exactly like it’s there. He’s had his fair share of dud performances, but the situation is too good to pass up. Besides Jalen Brown, no Celtics player has played more minutes than the Oregon product this year.
Without Brown in the lineup, Pritchard gets quite the bump, projection-wise, with a 6% increase in his usage rate across the 151 minutes he’s seen on the court sans Brown. Pritchard will see the court for more than 30 minutes. Against this defense, I’m comfortable with him putting up at least 30 fantasy points.
- DraftKings: $8,300
- FanDuel: $8,900
I feel like there’s going to be a good amount of stacking with the highlighted games tonight, and Los Angeles is one of those teams without Luka Doncic on the slate. I mentioned LeBron James’ boost in usage without Doncic on the court, but no Laker gets a bigger usage rate bump than Reaves.
Despite continuing to stay at the $8,300 price range on DraftKings, Reaves has gone over 50 fantasy points in three of his last four matchups. I’m comfortable with him in GPPs, but prefer him in cash simply because his rostership will be through the roof on this smaller slate.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,400
- FanDuel: $10,800
It kind of seems like half of both Philadelphia and Golden State is questionable tonight, so rostership and projections are still up in the air. If things land on the more injured side, Tyrese Maxey is going to dominate tonight and is vastly underowned on the smaller slate.
Paul George and Quentin Grimes are both questionable. If neither plays, Maxey’s usage and playing time will increase. The 76ers guard is already playing 40 minutes a night with a 30% usage rate, so there is a clear path to the ceiling beyond help from injuries. Golden State isn’t the friendliest of options, but his percentage of having a ceiling game is higher than his rostership right now, making him a solid GPP option.
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,400
It’s not as if Michael Porter Jr. will be low-rostered today; I just don’t think his rostership will be high enough. Brooklyn faces off against Utah tonight, which is one of the friendlier fantasy options. The Jazz rank fourth in pace of play, have the fourth-worst defense and have allowed the second-most fantasy points overall.
Porter has gone over 50 fantasy points in consecutive games. Yet, his price hasn’t budged. He’s taking more shots per game and can catch fire from deep while managing his usage with this subpar Brooklyn offense. That offense does cap him a bit, but I believe he’s firing away tonight and can easily clear 50 if not going back-to-back with consecutive 60+ point efforts. If you’re still looking for a center spot, Nic Claxton qualifies in this category as well.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,200
For deep-field GPPs, may I suggest Scottie Barnes? There always seems to be a player who falls through the cracks on any given slate. Tonight, it’s Barnes. The Raptors forward has gone over 58 points four times this season, and with Jakob Poeltl out, Barnes will get additional run.
Barnes gets a bump in usage and minutes with no Poeltl and has around a 27% usage rate. He has the ceiling and doesn’t have the rostership — the perfect combination for deep-field GPPs.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,900
- FanDuel: $4,000
I’m writing Sam Hauser up under the assumption Jaylen Brown is out with his current doubtful tag. Make sure to double-check that before lineups lock. I’ve covered Boston already, so I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but a sub-$4,000 starter against the Washington Wizards is like an early Christmas present.
Hauser will be highly rostered, so don’t be surprised when everyone else rosters him in GPPs. This is a clear spend-down option if you want to save some funds. Hauser, Anfernee Simons and Neemias Queta all fit the bill here.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $4,700
Jusuf Nurkic is questionable for tonight, but even projecting him in, Kyle Filipowski looks like one of the better value options on tonight’s slate. He’s sub-$5,000, and even though it’s a big pace down spot, the Brooklyn Nets’ defense is porous.
There are plenty of paths to points, and either way, I expect the Duke product to get additional minutes and usage tonight. The limited possession rates might cap his ceiling, but if you’re looking for a spend-down option, Filipowski is available.
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $4,800
The Toronto big man and name that knocked me out of the sports spelling bee rounds out today’s write-up. With Jakob Poeltl out, Sandro Mamukelashvili slots into the starting lineup tonight against the Lakers. While Los Angeles isn’t the friendliest of matchups, the Raptors frontcourt piece still usually returns over a fantasy point per minute.
Tonight, Mamukelashvili will probably play around 27 to 30 minutes. He does take a bit of a hit with the Lakers being the best defense against opposing centers. Either way, his pricing is simply too good to pass up with the usage and minutes he’ll see tonight.
