Free agency movement in MLB creates fantasy baseball risers and fallers in terms of draft values. The most straightforward players who fall into those camps are players who changed teams. All three winners in this article will play for new teams in 2026, and two of the losers joined new squads. However, an incumbent player is also a loser after an obstacle is now in their path to the field. Here are fantasy baseball risers and fallers from MLB free agency.
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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers
Here are a few fantasy baseball risers and fallers based on MLB free agency.
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Kyle Tucker (OF, DH – LAD): 17 ADP
Kyle Tucker was the 36th-ranked hitter in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric in 2025. The outfielder’s 2025 campaign was a tale of two halves.
Tucker belted 17 bombs with 68 runs, 56 RBI, a .280 batting average, .384 on-base percentage (OBP), 14.2% walk rate, 14.2% strikeout rate and 145 wRC+ in 423 plate appearances in the first half. Sadly, injuries reared their ugly head in the second half, and Tucker’s performance tanked. In 174 plate appearances in the second half, he hit five homers with 23 runs, 17 RBI, three stolen bases, a .231 batting average, .360 OBP, 15.5% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate and 115 wRC+.
The Dodgers are betting on a healthy Tucker playing more like he did in the first half of last season and in previous years than in the second half of last season. The 29-year-old outfielder will be flanked by excellent table-setters ahead of him and top-shelf hitters behind him. As a result, Tucker will have maximum run-production opportunities in his new home. He’s a five-category asset, and his landing spot cranks up his ceiling.
Pete Alonso (1B – BAL): 26 ADP
Pete Alonso will get a huge park-factor boost after leaving the Mets in free agency for the Orioles. Oriole Park at Camden Yards was renovated for the 2025 season and became one of the best hitting environments. According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Oriole Park at Camden Yards was tied for the sixth highest for runs (106) and was second for homers (121). According to our three-year park factors, Citi Field is one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly and homer-depressing venues.
Alonso hit the eighth-most homers (38) in 2025, and he’s slugged the sixth-most dingers (118) since 2023. Power is Alonso’s calling card and his best fantasy contribution. However, he also achieved a career-high batting average of .272 in 2025. The 31-year-old slugger can return to 40+ homers for the first time since 2023, and his improved hitting conditions could help him retain some of his batting average gains last year, too. Alonso is a free-agency winner because of his new home ballpark.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Ranger Suarez (SP – BOS): 178.5 ADP
Ranger Suarez is a rock-solid pitcher, but moving from the Phillies to the Red Sox is a potential double whammy for his fantasy value. The lefty had a 23.2% strikeout rate last year, one tick above average (22.2%). His 9.5% SwStr% in 2025 was below the league average (11%).
Suarez needs a quality defense behind him to maximize his fantasy value. He had a career-low 46.8% groundball rate last season, a 51.9% groundball rate in 2024 and a 52% groundball rate for his career. Infield defense is critical for Suarez’s potential.
Sadly, Fenway Park is slightly more hitter-friendly than Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, he might be downgrading his infield defense based on FanGraphs‘ fielding run values in 2025 for the projected starters in Philadelphia’s and Boston’s infields. The most glaring downgrade is at shortstop. According to Baseball Savant, among 71 qualified shortstops in 2025, Trea Turner was fourth in fielding run value, and Trevor Story was 68th. Yeesh. Suarez is a less appealing fantasy option with the Red Sox than he was with the Phillies.
Matt Shaw (3B – CHC): 238.5 ADP
The Cubs made a splash in the free-agent pool, inking Alex Bregman to a large contract to play the hot corner. The veteran third baseman’s addition pushes Matt Shaw out of the starting lineup. There isn’t a clear path for Shaw in the starting lineup, leaving him in a utility role on the bench.
Shaw will see time in the outfield to increase his versatility. Nevertheless, a bench player coming off a 93 wRC+ in 437 plate appearances as a rookie isn’t the most desirable fantasy option. Shaw needs more at-bats to continue his development in the Majors after dominating at the dish at every level of the Minors before reaching The Show last season. Bregman’s addition crushed Shaw’s fantasy value, but it would bounce back if he were traded or if someone else from the Cubs were traded to open up a starting gig for him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.