Having fantasy value at running back is about opportunity above all else. However, when a talented running back with eye-catching underlying data gets an enhanced opportunity, that’s when fantasy football breakouts happen.
The following two running backs are pending free agents. Both running backs have intriguing underlying data, and a bump to their roles in 2026 could be precisely what they need to flourish.
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2026 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)
Kenneth Walker was the RB22 in half-PPR points (171.4) and the RB29 in half-PPR points per game (10.4) in the 2025 season. He was the RB16 in half-PPR total points as a rookie in 2022, the RB19 in 2023 and the RB28 in 2024. Walker’s 14.4 half-PPR points per game in 2024 were the highest mark in his career. He’s hovered in the RB2 range.
However, there are levels to breakouts. Walker could go from middle-tier RB2 or worse to a locked-and-loaded RB1 in 2026.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 49 running backs with at least 100 carries in the regular season, Walker was 19th in rushing yards per game (60.4), 15th in yards per carry (4.65), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.49), 33rd in yards after contact per attempt (2.11), second in explosive run rate (8.1%) and first in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.28). Walker is explosive and elusive.
Unfortunately, he’s not a flawless runner. Walker was 45th in success rate (43.9%), tied for 37th in stuff rate (48.4%) and ranked 43rd in team rush rate inside the 5-yard line (27.6%). There’s a boom-or-bust element to Walker’s running, and Zach Charbonnet‘s presence undercut Walker’s opportunities near the goal line.
Walker somewhat made up for his lack of touchdown equity with adequate receiving work. Among 59 running backs with at least 100 routes in the regular season, Walker was 40th in route participation rate (32.2%), 36th in target share (7.1%), tied for 21st in targets per route run (0.20 TPRR), 30th in receptions (31 at 1.8 per game), tied for 28th in receiving yards per game (16.6) and was eighth in yards per route run (1.68 YPRR).
Walker’s big-play ability as a runner and efficiency as a receiver give him multiple paths to a full-blown breakout in 2026, whether he lands somewhere new or remains with the Seahawks and is treated as a featured running back. He also showcased his upside by gashing the 49ers in the Divisional Round. If Walker’s usage near the goal line, receiving opportunities or both get a lift in 2026, he has a chance to finish as a top-10 fantasy running back.
Keaton Mitchell (RB – BAL)
Keaton Mitchell is a restricted free agent. Derrick Henry signed a two-year contract extension in May. Rasheen Ali is on a rookie deal for the Ravens. According to Over the Cap, the Ravens can save $3.1 million with only a $666,668 dead cap hit by cutting Justice Hill. Baltimore might want to retain Mitchell.
However, they’ll have a new head coach, and running back is far from their most pressing need. The Ravens could extend a right-of-first refusal tender, but a first-round or second-round tender seems unlikely given the terms attached to those tenders. Thus, Mitchell could be on the move, and he reportedly garnered interest around the NFL’s trade deadline.
Teams checked in on Keaton Mitchell around the trade deadline. The #Ravens said no thanks. They weren’t parting with his big-play ability. pic.twitter.com/5XgWx2HOkD
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) December 7, 2025
Mitchell is only 5-foot-8 and 190 pounds. He’s unlikely to be viewed as a workhorse running back. Nevertheless, Mitchell is measurably dynamic, and he had rather comparable rushing numbers to a similarly built explosive running back in De’Von Achane (5-foot-9, 191 pounds). The table below shows their 2025 statistics and ranks among 65 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts, via the Fantasy Points data suite.
Mitchell ran only 46 routes (12.4% route participation rate) in 13 games but logged the following numbers:
- -2.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 12 targets (0.9 per game)
- 0.26 TPRR
- Nine receptions (0.7 per game)
- 63 receiving yards (4.8 per game)
- 1.37 YPRR
Mitchell wasn’t utilized heavily, but he didn’t embarrass himself by securing nine of his 12 targets and logging a 1.37 YPRR.
The diminutive speedster likely doesn’t have a top-12 fantasy running back ceiling. However, Mike McDaniel is generating interest as a head-coaching and offensive-coordinator candidate. If Mitchell could thread the needle of joining McDaniel in the right offense with a path to a 1A or 1B role in a backfield, he could reach an unexpected ceiling. Regardless, Mitchell could break out and perform as a quality fantasy RB2 if things don’t shake out perfectly for him in free agency.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
