Happy New Year! Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins within, and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the game, and I know a big cash prize is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent four-game main slate tonight, so we might have to do some digging for value. Nevertheless, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Happy New Year! Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins within, and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the game, and I know a big cash prize is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent four-game main slate tonight, so we might have to do some digging for value. Nevertheless, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: N/A
It’s a bit of a weird slate tonight with neither site featuring all of today’s five games, but overlapping a different set of four. If you’re a FanDuel truther, you can skip down, but on DraftKings, I expect Clippers stars to be heavily rostered tonight. Whether it’s James Harden or Kawhi Leonard, both make for great plays.
Leonard is more of a GPP play, while Harden is a cash game play simply because of his small price savings and consistency. Either way, they’re playing the Utah Jazz, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing teams so far this season. Both players project for over 50 fantasy points, and both project to be in about a third of lineups across the board tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,500
I can’t say I expected to recommend Joel Embiid for any DFS slate this year, but tonight he’s lining up to be a solid play. Of course, he’s dealing with an ankle sprain, so make sure he doesn’t get benched for injury management. Assuming he plays, Embiid is in line for around 47 fantasy points.
It does seem the 76ers center is building back up to his true form after a 64-fantasy point effort on Tuesday. When he’s on the court, Embiid is more than capable of a slate-defining performance, and it should be a good matchup against Dallas. The Mavericks are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Can’t say I expected a game where both Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid would play full minutes, but it’s a new year, so anything is possible.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $8,100
Despite coming off a nearly 60-fantasy point effort and averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points a game for Boston, Derrick White has stayed relatively cheap for his production. His usage rate is up to 25% while he’s played 35 minutes a night across his last two weeks. He’s going to be highly rostered, around 30%, but it makes sense.
White only dipped below 30 fantasy points once in December, and tonight I project him for just above 40 fantasy points, making for a solid return on investment (ROI) in your cash lineups. Teammate Payton Pritchard is in a similar boat, and might as well throw in Neemias Queta as a spend-down option if you’re looking for that.
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,300
Jalen Duren might not have the consistency you look for in a cash game option, but he certainly has the price tag that makes him accessible. With the high-flying Heat opposing Detroit tonight, this game has the highest total tonight at 236 points.
Bam Adebayo might be back in the lineup for Miami to help their defensive efforts, but he’s still dealing with a lower back issue, so I don’t expect him to play full minutes, helping Duren’s floor and ceiling. The Pistons center should see around 30 minutes tonight. With the increased possession rate, that positions him for around 40 fantasy points against Miami.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,200
- FanDuel: $10,500
Considering Miami is the fastest-paced team in the league, I’m surprised Cade Cunningham is coming in around 15% projected rostership on a four-game slate. Of course, he is the most expensive player on the slate. With the smaller slate, it makes it a bit difficult to find clear value options to counter-balance your spending, but the Detroit guard will be under-rostered.
We’ve seen a 96 DraftKings point outing, a couple of 70-burgers and Cunningham is consistently over 50 fantasy points. The Heat allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing guards, and with his high ceiling and low rostership, Cunningham is a clear GPP play.
- DraftKings: $7,400
- FanDuel: $8,900
The price discrepancy is a little insane on Cooper Flagg across the platforms, but it’s even more surprising that he is expected to have around 16% rostership on DraftKings. The rookie has been climbing in price over the last month of play, averaging over 46 fantasy points per game in his last eight outings, with multiple 60+ fantasy point performances.
That kind of effort is exactly what we’re looking for tonight. Flagg is playing around 37 minutes a night over the last two weeks of play with a 28% usage rate. It’s hard to say the 76ers offer a fantasy boost, but given his price tag, ceiling and low rostership, it’s the perfect storm for a GPP roster option.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: N/A
For the best value play of the slate, we have Brice Sensabaugh. The Jazz guard-forward has gotten a bit of a price bump given the rotation, but is still under $5,000. He should be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate.
It helps that Sensabaugh is projected for over 30 minutes with Ace Bailey and Jusuf Nurkic out. Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen are questionable, too, so there may be even more room to grow here. The Clippers aren’t exactly a friendly fantasy matchup, but considering he’ll be on the court for around 28-30 minutes tonight, it’s clear to see where the value is coming from.
- DraftKings: $4,400
- FanDuel: $5,300
The price difference in platforms makes Brandon Williams a clearly better play on DraftKings, but either way, the Dallas guard is a value on tonight’s slate. He may not be a starter, but Williams has still played over 30 minutes in each of his last two games, managing over 30 fantasy points in each matchup.
Williams’ floor is a little low, but with only four games to choose from, it’s a little hard to be picky. I don’t expect him to get over 30 fantasy points again tonight, but a comfortable 25 is a solid outcome for the Dallas guard tonight.
