Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the ups and downs, but I’m positive a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a smaller four-game slate tonight, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the ups and downs, but I’m positive a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a smaller four-game slate tonight, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $10,900
Despite only four games tonight, there are some impressive ceiling opportunities across the slate. Dallas-Utah is at a 240-point total, with another two games at 239 and 238. There might be some 60-70 point fantasy efforts from any given star tonight. Like Anthony Davis. His recent play has been subpar, which has brought this price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel, but Davis should be full go tonight against the Jazz.
Only the Wizards have allowed more fantasy points than the Jazz this year, with the lowest-ranked league defense and a top-10 pace of play to go with Dallas. This game will be run and gun, and the Jazz frontcourt is already banged up with Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love. Davis might be rostered by half the field tonight, but considering his DraftKings price and ceiling, it makes sense.
- DraftKings: $9,500
- FanDuel: $9,500
It’s the Anthony show today. I know it’s a bit of a cop out to go with the two most expensive players on the DraftKings slate, but sometimes that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Anthony Edwards won’t be as highly rostered, so I prefer him as a GPP play. Cleveland and Minnesota both rank in the top 10 of pace of play, and Cleveland’s defense has been underrated of late, ranking in the bottom half of the league over their last 10 games.
Part of that is because of injuries, but the Cavaliers’ season-long numbers aren’t much better. The Timberwolves are also a top-five home offense this year, so I am buying into the home court advantage bump. Cleveland has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in their last 15 games. High floor is written all over Edwards tonight, but his 31% usage rate and high possession rate should lead to fireworks.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,400
Backing one of the worst offenses we’ve seen in a while isn’t exactly the best move for cash contests in DFS, but on a four-game slate, that’s how it goes sometimes. Pascal Siakam’s price is simply too low. Given the frontcourt issues the Pacers face, Siakam has seen a boost in minutes (36 a night) and usage rate (30%) in recent play.
Siakam gone over 35 DraftKings points in six straight games. Against a sub-par Charlotte defense, expect more of that tonight. He’ll end up being rostered in about a third of lineups, but it makes sense, as he doesn’t break the bank and should 5X his price tag.
- DraftKings: $7,500
- FanDuel: $8,400
Consistency isn’t the first word that jumps off the page when discussing Cooper Flagg, but he has surprisingly gone over 30 DraftKings points in 13 straight games and 17 of his last 18. Can’t say it’s a shock that the first overall pick has figured it out. Tonight against Utah, Flagg will continue this run.
Flagg has shown his ceiling, putting up 60+ fantasy point outings, so you can play him in GPPs, but he will be far from a contrarian play with his expected 25% rostership. Flagg should see the court for around 25 minutes. With a 24% usage rate, he will have plenty of chances to get around 40 fantasy points.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,400
Someone I’m shocked who won’t be rostered more is Bam Adebayo. I know he is dealing with a lower back issue that has dipped his minutes below 30 minutes in the last couple of games, but all signs point to him being a full go against the Bulls. Chicago allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season and ranks third in pace of play (the Heat rank first).
When Adebayo is on the court, he has a 23% usage rate, which will give him the chance to go for over 50 fantasy points. Something he’s done three different times already this season. I know that’s not exactly likely, but for a GPP win, you’re looking for the outlier opportunities. At his price tag on both sites, I’ll take those odds to go over the field on his 16% projected rostership.
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,500
On the other side of my love for Dallas tonight, Utah isn’t in a bad spot either. This is a pace-up spot for the Jazz at home against the Mavericks, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing guards over their last 15 games. With Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love both questionable, there’s a good chance George sees more than his already high 28% usage rate to go along with 35 minutes on the court.
The Jazz guard is coming off a 50 fantasy point outing against Oklahoma City, so don’t be shocked to see another 50 burger. At 13% projected rostership, he’s under-rostered and offers great leverage to your Dallas-heavy lineups.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,500
I know this may sound sarcastic, but I am genuinely excited to watch this game. Both teams are trash, but this should be a fun, high-scoring game. Indiana may be 1-16 on the road with the worst offense, but that won’t stop Jay Huff from returning value on this slate.
With no Obi Toppin and Isaiah Jackson, Huff should see around 28 minutes tonight against a Charlotte team that’s consistently ranked in the bottom third of the league defensively. The Pacers’ fast pace will buoy Huff’s floor, and he takes around double-digit shot attempts in any given game. Considering the price tag on both sites, Huff is likely to have the highest return on investment (ROI) of any player tonight.
- DraftKings: $4,700
- FanDuel: $5,900
I apologize to my FanDuel truthers, where Brandon Williams is a significantly less interesting play, but he seems to be a never-ending value play on DraftKings. He averages 23 fantasy points a game, which already is a decent floor for his sub-$5,000 price, but in his last five outings, that number jumps to 31 fantasy points a night.
I project him for a little less than that, but Utah is the team to have a ceiling performance against, as they are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing guards this season. Williams won’t start, and he’s questionable tonight, so monitor the news, but his 25 minutes should be plenty enough time on the court to return value.
