The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Wild Card Weekend 18 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (QB – SF) vs. SF | DraftKings: $6,300/FanDuel: $8,200
Don’t let Sam Darnold‘s single-digit fantasy point performance against San Francisco in Week 18 fool you. Robert Saleh has done an admirable job of trying to hold together the 49ers’ defense, but it’s still one of the most advantageous matchups in the playoffs.
Jalen Hurts’ inconsistency has been an issue, but he’s typically taken advantage of struggling defenses, and he offers one of the highest ceilings on the slate. The point total for this game has dropped since opening, but it should hit the over.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) @ JAX | DraftKings: $7,000/FanDuel: $8,700
Buffalo versus Jacksonville is interesting because the matchup features two strong defenses, yet has the highest point total by far of any game on the slate. Their strengths come in very different ways. The Bills have been one of the top pass defenses in the league, while the Jags have excelled against the run.
While James Cook had a fantastic season, this matchup leans towards points coming via Josh Allen. Playing Allen naked is the best route, but it’s possible to stack him with Khalil Shakir, who is very cost-effective on DraftKings.
C.J. Stroud is your pure contrarian play this week. While this game has the lowest point total of the slate, the Steelers have been consistently lit up through the air. Stroud is the third-lowest-priced quarterback on DraftKings, and he has one of the most clear and direct stacks with Nico Collins, who also offers low rostership, being the second-highest-priced receiver on the slate.
Even with T.J. Watt, the Steelers’ pass rush has struggled all season, and the Texans’ line should give Stroud enough time in the pocket.
Additional Considerations
- Jordan Love (QB – GB) @ CHI | DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $7,200
- Note: Monitor the weather in Chicago. Snow, but more importantly, wind could be an issue. If the forecast shifts before the game and winds subside, Jordan Love is a solid contrarian play over Stroud.
Running Backs
*Note: This week’s pool heavily favors running backs over receivers due to projections. Builds favor leaning towards your Flex being a running back or tight end.
Given the defensive matchup, Saquon Barkley is almost a must-play in lineups without Jalen Hurts. As we saw last week with the Seahawks, it doesn’t take much by way of points on the board for running backs to hit against the 49ers. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for over 209 total yards and a touchdown last week against San Francisco.
Barkley comes in with fresh legs off the Week 18 rest, and he’s well priced for his upside on DraftKings.
Buffalo’s run defense has tightened up over the past several weeks. However, some of that was due to weather and circumstance. For the vast majority of the season, the Bills were one of the friendliest matchups for opposing running backs.
With this matchup featuring the highest point total on the slate, Travis Etienne has the potential to be the highest-scoring running back this week if the Jaguars lean heavily on the ground. Add in his contributions through the air, and Etienne is a strong play.
There have been a couple of outlier performances, but Kenneth Gainwell has had an extremely prominent role in the Steelers’ receiving game, and this week’s matchup presents another great opportunity for Gainwell.
Houston has been tough against the run, but running backs have found success in checkdowns against the Texans. Game script hasn’t particularly mattered with Gainwell’s success, and he offers one of the highest ceilings of any running back in the $5,000 range on DraftKings. Scoring favors playing him on DraftKings versus FanDuel, but his FanDuel pricing is unmatched.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) @ CHI | DraftKings: $6,300/FanDuel: $7,800
Chicago has consistently been easier to beat through the air, but Josh Jacobs has had success against Chicago this season. Jacobs was injured and limited in the most recent game. In the first matchup, Jacobs had 83 yards on the ground and a touchdown.
The potential of weather issues could also place a higher focus on the ground game. Jacobs has been playing through an injury since Week 11, but is back at full health after taking Week 18 off. We’ll likely see Jacobs back to his normal workload this week.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) @ CAR | DraftKings: $8,700/FanDuel: $9,700
There’s really no way around the Puka Nacua chalk. No other receiver comes remotely close to his ceiling this week. He may underperform this week, however, as the Panthers are an excellent draw for a win, but they’re a terrible draw for wide receivers. However, fading a player whose ceiling is nearly 50 points is an unnecessary risk. Nacua must be incorporated into lineups this week.
Nico Collins works well this week because, despite having an excellent matchup, his pricing could make him fly under the radar. He’s the second-most expensive receiver this week. However, it’s very possible to play him with Nacua when paired with Stroud because of Stroud’s salary relief.
Other than Chicago, the Steelers are the best matchup for opposing receivers in the playoffs. If Collins hits, he would be a significant difference-maker in your lineup.
The matchup isn’t ideal. The Bills lean far tougher against the pass. However, it’s tough to beat Parker Washington’s pricing for the projections. He may offer a similar ceiling to several players in his price range, but he offers a far higher floor, with a minimum of 19 fantasy points since returning to full health post-injury.
Washington is clearly Trevor Lawrence‘s preferred target. Yet, he is the most “matchup-proof” Jaguars receiver because defenses don’t treat him as the No. 1 WR. He’s a safe play with a very elevated floor. Note that Washington’s pricing heavily favors playing him on DraftKings. He is overpriced on FanDuel
Jalen Coker (WR – CAR) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $4,500/FanDuel: $5,700
Jalen Coker offers a similar ceiling to Parker Washington with a better matchup. The only issue is he has a far lower floor, but he’s worth the risk this week, given we saw this matchup recently and he was the most productive Panthers receiver with 17 fantasy points.
The only issue here is that the weather is a major concern in this matchup. However, Coker has the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) of the Panthers’ starting receivers, so he’s the least likely to be impacted.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz remains an extremely trustworthy option with one of the best values per salary of the entire slate — hence the appeal of flexing tight end this week. The matchup remains key here. The Steelers are friendly against the pass, but it’s not just the receivers benefiting; the Steelers ranked in the top five of fantasy points allowed to tight ends this year.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Houston D/ST @ PIT | DraftKings: $3,300/FanDuel: $4,600
The Texans are the second-highest priced defense on the slate this week. However, the pricing difference between the top half of defenses is somewhat negligible. While they may not offer the best value, the pricing difference is not enough for me to fade what is arguably the safest play with one of the highest ceilings.
The Texans also opted to sit multiple starters on defense last week, so they’re coming in fresh and well prepared to rack up points.
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