The NFL Week 18 DFS main slate has 13 games. It’s a large slate, and it’s unusual. Motivation will be all over the map for teams. Some teams will play hard for seeding; others will give young players a look; and some might start their starters for part of the game before pulling them early to rest them before the playoffs. It’s a tricky week to navigate, and trying to do so this early only adds another layer of difficulty.
Still, the two games suggested below are my favorites to stack. The player suggestions may change from those games by the end of the week. Thus, readers should also check out this week’s DFS cheat sheet.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 18
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Falcons vs. Saints
Spread/Total: ATL -3.0/45.0 Points
The Falcons are in a spoiler position if the Buccaneers win. Regardless, Atlanta isn’t playing out the string, as evidenced by its Monday Night Football upset of the Rams. Atlanta’s do-it-all stud will be featured among the studs below.
Tyler Shough‘s matchup isn’t a layup, as the Falcons have given quality quarterbacks trouble. Nevertheless, they’ve allowed the 15th-most DraftKings points per game (19) and the 15th-most FanDuel points per game (19) to quarterbacks since Week 13.
Shough is in good form and doing his best to prove he’s an NFL starting quarterback. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, in his previous three games, he’s had the following stats.
- 304.3 passing yards per game
- 72.2% completion rate
- 8.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A)
- Four passing touchdowns
- Zero interceptions
- 14 carries
- 15.3 rushing yards per game
- 20 DraftKings points per game
- 20 FanDuel points per game
The DFS lineup optimizer projects Shough as the QB9 this week, with the QB5 value score (points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings. Shough is an enticing GPP option.
His top stacking partner is listed below in the core studs. However, Juwan Johnson and Kevin Austin are also intriguing stacking options with Shough. Johnson has had the following stats in Shough’s eight starts.
- 68.9% route participation rate
- 7.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 15.5% air yards share
- 16.5% target share
- 0.21 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 17.7% first-read rate
- 44 targets (5.5 per game)
- 38 receptions (4.8 per game)
- 460 receiving yards (57.5 per game)
- 2.19 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- Two touchdowns
- 12.4 DraftKings points per game
- 10 FanDuel points per game
Johnson is projected as the TE4 this week, with the TE5 value score at DraftKings and the TE1 value score at FanDuel.
Austin is a riskier punt-priced stacking option with Shough. Austin has the second-highest route participation rate (66.9%) for the Saints in the previous three weeks, and he had a nifty showing in Week 17, with an 83.9% route participation rate, 21.1% air yards share, 18.5% target share, five targets, four receptions, 52 receiving yards, 2.00 Y/RR and one touchdown.
He has a plus matchup this week. The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points allowed per game (38.3) and are tied for the eighth-most FanDuel points allowed per game (31.2) to wide receivers since Week 13.
Game: Bears vs. Lions
Spread/Total: CHI -3.0/50.5 Points
The Bears can secure the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a win or a loss by the Eagles. They’ll have ample motivation on Sunday. Chicago also has a juicy implied total of 27 points. Caleb Williams is having a breakout sophomore campaign, even if he’s been uneven.
Williams’ accuracy leaves something to be desired. Nonetheless, he can make big plays, and he can add fantasy value with his legs. Williams has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games and five of his past six, and he’s had at least 13 rushing yards in 10 straight contests. Williams carved up San Francisco’s injury-depleted defense for 330 passing yards and two touchdowns in Week 17, and he faces another injury-ravaged defense in a plus matchup this week.
From Week 12 through Week 16, the Lions allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (24) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (23.9) to quarterbacks. Detroit’s recent numbers against quarterbacks would look much better if they included Week 17, but they faced Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who isn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback. Williams can have another ceiling performance this week if the Lions push the Bears.
Luther Burden hurt his quad at the end of the Sunday Night Football shootout. However, the injury isn’t considered serious. Burden barbecued the 49ers on Sunday night, setting season highs for targets (nine), receptions (eight), receiving yards (138) and scoring a touchdown for the second time. The dynamic rookie is closing the regular season on a high note, logging the following numbers in his last three games.
- 56.4% route participation rate
- 8.8-yard aDOT
- 24.6% air yards share
- 21% target share
- 0.33 TPRR
- 30.9% first-read rate
- 22 targets (7.3 per game)
- 18 receptions (6.0 per game)
- 289 receiving yards (96.3 per game)
- 4.38 Y/RR
- One touchdown
- 18.7 DraftKings points per game
- 15.7 FanDuel points per game
Burden has a high ceiling, as evidenced by Week 17, and he’s underpriced relative to his recent play, even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling this week. However, gamers must track Chicago’s injury report this week to ensure he’ll suit up.
The favored Bears could lean heavily on D’Andre Swift in a neutral or positive game script. Chicago is 22nd in pass rate over expectations (-1.2% PROE) this season and 20th in PROE (-2.4%) since Week 13. Swift has had at least 12 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in five straight games, logging 79, 70, 96, 82 and 138 scrimmage yards in those games, scoring five touchdowns during that period, and reaching paydirt in three of those games.
Swift can stay productive in a desirable matchup. The Lions have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (28.2) and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (26.6) to running backs since Week 13.
Jahmyr Gibbs bottomed out last week. He had 64 scoreless scrimmage yards and only two receptions. He’s gone under 45 rushing yards in four straight games. However, Gibbs at least partially offset his lackluster rushing during that period with receiving work. Gibbs gashed the Bears for 104 scrimmage yards, one touchdown and three receptions in Week 2. He’s strictly a ceiling-chasing GPP selection. Fortunately, the DFS lineup optimizer projects him as the RB2 at both DFS outlets, with the RB2 value score at DraftKings.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is day-to-day with a knee injury. The Sun God would like to play, but that doesn’t mean he will in a meaningless Week 18 contest. Furthermore, ARSB could be limited if he suits up.
Jameson Williams is a stellar play even if St. Brown is active, and he’s even more enticing if Detroit’s No. 1 wideout is inactive. Since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10, Williams has recorded the following numbers.
- 89% route participation rate
- 12.6-yard aDOT
- 34.4% air yards share
- 18.4% target share
- 0.19 TPRR
- 20.8% first-read rate
- 55 targets (6.9 per game)
- 38 receptions (4.8 per game)
- 688 receiving yards (86 per game)
- 2.43 Y/RR
- Four touchdowns
- 16.9 DraftKings points per game
- 14.5 FanDuel points per game
Williams has had more DFS-friendly showings than duds since Campbell took over the play-calling, but he’s coming off a stinker. The speedster also had zero receptions against the Giants in Week 12. In addition, if St. Brown is out, there’s a risk the offense could stumble. Regardless, Williams’ ceiling is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson is the RB1 this week, with the RB3 value score at DraftKings and FanDuel. Atlanta’s do-it-all running back leads the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,255), and he’s reached at least 100 in six of his last seven games, including going over 165 scrimmage yards in three straight and four of his last five. Robinson has also scored in each of the last three games, splashing paydirt four times.
- Chris Olave is projected as the WR4 in Week 18, with the WR3 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FanDuel. In eight games with Shough as New Orleans’ starting quarterback, Olave has ripped off a 47.3% air yards share, 26.7% target share, 0.27 TPRR, 48 receptions (6.0 per game), 660 receiving yards (82.5 per game), 2.48 Y/RR, six receiving touchdowns, 19.1 DraftKings points per game and 16.1 FanDuel points per game.
- Trevor Lawrence is this week’s QB2, with the QB1 value score at DraftKings and the QB2 value score at FanDuel. T-Law is on a nuclear heater. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks since Week 12, Lawrence is seventh in passing yards per game (266.8), third in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.03 ANY/A), tied for first in passing touchdowns (15), first in DraftKings points per game (28) and first in FanDuel points per game (27.8). Lawrence also ran during that period, averaging 28.2 rushing yards per game with two rushing touchdowns in those five games. He has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Titans have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game (23.5) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (23.3) to quarterbacks since Week 13.
Value Plays/Punts
- Colston Loveland is the TE5, with the TE1 value score at DraftKings and the TE2 value score at FanDuel. He’s flashed his potential at times, and the rookie tight end is coming off a massive effort with tasty underlying data in Week 17. Loveland had an 80.4% route participation rate, 10.9-yard aDOT, 36.8% air yards share, 23.8% target share, 0.27 TPRR, 10 targets, six receptions, 94 receiving yards, 2.54 Y/RR and a receiving touchdown last week. He’s secured at least three receptions in 11 straight games, and he’s had at least 40 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.
- Isaac TeSlaa has reached the end zone in back-to-back games and four of his last five. He can score a touchdown to backdoor DFS value at worst. However, TeSlaa would have an expanded role if St. Brown were inactive or limited on Sunday. He’s also already seen an uptick in usage lately. In Detroit’s last two games, TeSlaa had a 58.2% route participation rate, 12.3-yard aDOT, 25.6% air yards share, 13.3% target share, 0.21 TPRR, 19% first-read rate, 11 targets (5.5 per game), seven receptions (3.5 per game), 101 receiving yards (50.5 per game), 1.91 Y/RR and two touchdowns.
- Parker Washington flashed his potential earlier this year, but he’s emerged as Jacksonville’s top pass-catching weapon in the past two games. Washington has reached at least 115 receiving yards in back-to-back games. He’s had a 79.1% route participation rate, 12.3-yard aDOT, 38.3% air yards share, 27.4% target share, 29.8% first-read rate, 20 targets (10 per game), 14 receptions (7.0 per game), 260 receiving yards (130 per game), 3.82 Y/RR and one receiving touchdown since Week 16. Washington has been Jacksonville’s top wideout in the last two weeks, and he was tied with Jakobi Meyers for the highest route participation rate (93%) in Week 17. Washington’s salary hasn’t caught up to his recent usage, making him an excellent selection in all game types at both DFS providers.
Week 18 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
C.J. Stroud: 224.5 Passing Yards – Higher
C.J. Stroud’s passing has been inconsistent this year. Still, he’s exceeded 224.5 passing yards in three of his last five games. Stroud also has a plus matchup this week. The Colts have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (270.4 per game) to quarterbacks since Week 13. We project Stroud to pass for 225.3 yards against the Colts this week.
Caleb Williams: 227.5 Passing Yards – Higher
Williams has surpassed 227.5 passing yards in three straight games and four of his last six. Williams also has a sweet matchup. The Lions have allowed quarterbacks to best 227.5 passing yards in five of their last six games, and Brosmer was the outlier during that period. We project Williams to pass for 232.2 yards against the Lions this week.
Jared Goff: 256.5 Passing Yards – Lower
Jared Goff is much better at home than on the road, and he’s markedly better indoors than outdoors. Goff is on the road and outdoors this week. According to Pro Football Reference, Goff has averaged 249.8 passing yards per game in eight games on the road and 243.8 passing yards per game in six games outdoors this season. Goff has gone under 256.5 passing yards in five of eight road contests and four of six outdoor games. Add in St. Brown’s knee injury, and Goff’s passing outlook isn’t bright this week.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
