Investing in young running backs with ample tread left on the tires is often a wise move in fantasy football. However, two sophomore running backs are currently overvalued in Underdog best ball drafts. One is coming off a devastating season-ending injury, and the other was a late-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a solid-but-unspectacular profile.
- Fantasy Football Research & Advice
- Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 2026 NFL Mock Drafts
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Overvalued Fantasy Football Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE) | 51.0 Underdog ADP
The Cleveland Browns selected Quinshon Judkins with the fourth pick of the second round in the 2025 NFL Draft, making him the third running back off the board. He didn’t have a typical offseason after he was accused of striking a woman and remained unsigned by the Browns. However, prosecutors declined to pursue charges.
Ultimately, Judkins and the Browns reached an agreement, and he made his season debut in Week 2. Judkins was Cleveland’s most productive runner. His rushing data wasn’t particularly impressive relative to other running backs, though. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 55 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the 2025 regular season, Judkins was 22nd in rushing yards per game (59.1), tied for 50th in yards per carry (3.60), 51st in yards before contact per attempt (1.36), 29th in yards after contact per attempt (2.23), tied for 42nd in explosive run rate (3.0%), 55th in success rate (40.9%) and 55th in stuff rate (56.5%).
Judkins didn’t shine as a pass-catcher, either. Among 78 running backs with at least 50 routes in 2025, Judkins was 48th in route participation rate (27.3%), 35th in target share (7.3%), tied for 17th in targets per route run (0.23 TPRR), tied for 34th in receptions (26; 1.86 per game), 39th in receiving yards per game (12.2) tied for 34th in yards per route run (1.17) and had zero touchdown receptions.
The Browns have a lousy offense, no franchise quarterback and a cap mess. According to Over the Cap, Cleveland is 23rd in effective cap space. The Browns are unlikely to win many games in 2026, so Judkins probably won’t have many positive game scripts. He’d be a suspect click at his average draft position (ADP) under normal conditions.
Judkins is an entirely unappealing selection given his season-ending injury. The rookie running back dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula against the Bills on December 21st. Judkins underwent successful surgery for his injuries two days later. Tony Pollard had a TightRope procedure at the end of January 2023, after fracturing his fibula and suffering a high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Pollard’s efficiency and explosiveness weren’t the same in 2023, resulting in a career-low four yards per carry.
Isiah Pacheco also had surgery to repair a broken fibula after breaking it late in a Week 2 game in the 2024 season. He hasn’t been the same player since returning from the injury and surgery. Frankly, Judkins shouldn’t be selected until the 70s. Jaylen Warren (73.3 ADP) is a more appealing pick irrespective of ADP. Judkins should be picked in the same range as Bhayshul Tuten (76.4 ADP).
Kyle Monangai (RB – CHI) | 84.7 Underdog ADP
D’Andre Swift has one year left on his contract after leading Chicago’s backfield in 2025. However, according to Over the Cap, the Bears could save approximately $7.5 million with only a $1.3 million dead cap number by cutting Swift before June 1st. Swift’s average per-year contract value is the 16th highest at running back. So, it’s a meaningful amount of salary to save.
Alternatively, Swift played pretty well, and the two sides could also agree to an extension or a restructured deal to keep him in Chicago at a lower base salary. If the Bears move on from Swift, should gamers be encouraged that a player the Bears didn’t feel was worth keeping at his salary was a better option to headline the backfield than Kyle Monangai?
Swift played in 18 games; Monangai played in 19. Yet, the veteran had 255 rush attempts versus 190 for the rookie, and Swift had a 43.7% route participation rate compared to 28.9% for Monangai. If the Bears keep Swift, Monangai would profile as Swift’s change of pace and handcuff in a best-case scenario.
Monangai’s fantasy football ADP seems to bake in the possibility of him leading Chicago’s backfield in 2026. However, if the Bears move on from Swift, they’ll need to add someone to their backfield, either via free agency, a trade, the draft or a combination of those avenues. Depending on Chicago’s level of commitment at the running back position, Monangai could be in a worse spot than if the organization ran it back with Swift as the lead running back. Monangai performed admirably as a seventh-round pick, but he didn’t light the world on fire.
Among 49 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs combined, Monangai was 34th in rushing yards per game (44.5), 22nd in yards per carry (4.45), 20th in yards before contact per attempt (2.16), 22nd in yards after contact per attempt (2.29), 21st in explosive run rate (4.2%), 23rd in success rate (50.0%), 11th in stuff rate (41.6%), tied for 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.10) and tied for 30th in rushing touchdowns (five).
Despite Monangai’s best trait being the ability to avoid getting stuffed, his 36.7% attempt rate inside the 5-yard line was 34th, and Swift was their preferred goal-line option at 60.7%.
The following underwhelming receiving work offsets Monangai’s solid but unspectacular rushing production:
- 28.9% route participation rate
- 0.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 5% target share
- 0.15 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 33 targets (1.7 per game)
- 23 receptions (1.2 per game)
- 222 receiving yards (11.7 per game)
- 1.04 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 0 receiving touchdowns
Monangai doesn’t have a trump card in his deck. He’s a fine member of the backfield, but he doesn’t profile as a workhorse back. Monangai was the RB30 in half-PPR total points (137.7) and the RB29 in standard-scoring total points (128.7). He’s the RB28 in Underdog ADP. Monangai will need to improve on last year’s showing to break even.
That could happen in the same role, but the track record of running backs picked on the third day of the NFL Draft (the fourth round or later) since 2015 with at least 125 standard-scoring points as a rookie has multiple cautionary tales. Jeremy Langford, Elijah Mitchell and Dameon Pierce instantly turned into pumpkins.
The Falcons spent the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Bijan Robinson after Tyler Allgeier‘s encouraging rookie season, and the Giants invested in Cam Skattebo after Tyrone Tracy‘s stellar rookie campaign. Bucky Irving and Jordan Howard might be the best-case scenarios for Monangai, and both were much more productive as rookies than Monangai.
Howard’s rookie season was also his best campaign, which doesn’t provide the warm and fuzzies for Monangai’s outlook, either. Why is Monangai’s ADP approximately three rounds earlier than the ADPs for Woody Marks (118.6 ADP) and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (120.5 ADP)? I have no idea. Monangai belongs in the same range as the other sophomore Day 3 running backs.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.