Hitting on studs, breakouts, and players who simply deliver fair value for their average draft position (ADP) is one critical component of winning a fantasy baseball championship. That said, avoiding busts and duds is huge, too. The following three pitchers are unappealing selections at their ADPs.
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Fantasy Baseball Pitchers to Avoid
George Kirby (SP – SEA) | 65.8 ADP/P23
George Kirby was the 82nd-ranked pitcher in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric last season. His ADP is approximately 66, as the 23rd-ranked pitcher.
Clearly, gamers are forgiving Kirby for his worst season since debuting in the Majors in 2022. Seattle’s righty’s 4.21 ERA was, admittedly, higher than all of his ERA estimators last season. According to FanGraphs, Kirby had a 3.88 xERA, 3.25 xFIP, and 3.39 SIERA.
The 28-year-old pitcher is a positive regression candidate based on his ERA estimators. Nevertheless, Kirby had a career-low 23 starts and career-low 126 innings pitched last season after opening the 2025 campaign on the injured list (IL) with right-shoulder inflammation. He didn’t make his 2025 season debut for the Mariners until May 22, and while a shaky few turns after being activated hurt his numbers, Kirby also had some ugly starts at the end of the year, too.
After dumping Kirby’s first two starts off the IL, his ERA in 2025 dipped to 3.68. At the same time, the righty closed the year with a 4.33 ERA in his final 10 starts. In other words, cherry picking can go both ways.
Circling back to Kirby’s full-season numbers in 2025, he had a career-high 5.5 BB%, a career-high 33.9% hard-hit rate allowed, and his 98 stuff+ was a notable dip from his 104 stuff+ in 2023 and 2024.
Kirby’s road numbers are also a concern for his fantasy outlook. He had a 5.16 ERA in 11 starts spanning 59.1 innings in 2025. Kirby also has a 4.08 ERA in 60 career road starts, totaling 324 innings.
Kirby is a quality pitcher who should bounce back from last year’s ERA north of 4.00. Still, between Kirby coming off a down year, a career low in innings, and requiring sitting him on the road to maximize his ERA and WHIP or eating his less appetizing road splits to get as many wins and strikeouts as possible from him, Kirby is too expensive.
Blake Snell (SP – LAD) | 96.4 ADP/P34
Blake Snell started 11 games spanning 61.1 innings in the regular season last year and another six appearances (five starts) totaling 34 innings in the playoffs. Even including Snell’s 13.2 innings in the minors on a rehab assignment, his 2025 total was only 109 innings.
The veteran lefty doesn’t stay healthy and pile up innings. He threw a career-high 180.2 innings in the regular season all the way back in 2018, and he threw 180 for the Padres in 2023. They were the only two instances Snell cleared 130 innings in the Majors in a regular season.
Snell’s checkered injury history would make him a good bet to miss time this year if he entered the season healthy. He’s not even entering the year healthy. After spending time on the IL last season because of shoulder inflammation, Snell has taken things slowly in the offseason because of lingering discomfort in his throwing shoulder.
Snell threw his first bullpen session on Thursday. It will be at least six weeks before he fully ramps up, and he could be sidelined into May. Of course, that’s if he doesn’t have any setbacks as he increases his intensity.
Snell is unquestionably a talented pitcher, and he dominated for the Dodgers last year. He can’t help fantasy baseball teams from the IL, though. Furthermore, there’s always some risk that Snell’s performance will suffer from his shoulder issue. Snell’s sparkling numbers in only 61.1 innings last year resulted in finishing as the 173rd-ranked pitcher in VBR. Quality is one input for fantasy value, but quantity is another, and Snell’s innings outlook is always low based on his track record. It’s even lower when he opens the year for multiple weeks on the IL. A top-100 pick is an absurd price to pay for Snell. Let someone else deal with the injury headache.
Carlos Estevez (RP – KC) | 116.6 ADP/P44
Carlos Estevez led MLB in saves last year with 42. He was the 40th-ranked pitcher in VBR last year. The veteran reliever’s P44 ADP is only a few spots lower than his finish last year, in the best-case scenario of pacing MLB in saves.
Estevez’s finish last year also required a 2.45 ERA that drastically outkicked his 3.69 xERA, 4.95 xFIP, and 4.43 SIERA. The 33-year-old righty’s 20.1 K% was a career-low mark, and his 8.2 BB% was mediocre.
Estevez also had a career-low 25.0 GB% last season. His fly-ball-centric approach worked at homer-suppressing Kauffman Stadium last year. Kauffman Stadium has the eighth-lowest park factor for home runs (0.913) according to our three-year park factors.
The righty’s batted-ball profile is unlikely to serve him well at home this year after Kansas City renovated Kauffman Stadium, moving in the fences and lowering them to increase homers.
Estevez’s underlying data was a red flag before accounting for the ballpark renovations, and the park changes further damage Estevez’s outlook.
Finally, his fastball velocity has plummeted in Spring Training. His heater averaged 95.9 mph last year, and his slider averaged 87.3 mph. In two appearances this spring, his fastball’s average velocity was 89 mph, and his slider’s was 81 mph. Estevez’s early spring showing is another reason to fade him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
