4 MLB Spring Training Fallers (Fantasy Baseball)

Spring training stats are mostly meaningless, but playing time, usage and lineup spots can be useful information. Players who are buzzy and end up with tremendous or terrible springs are also hard to ignore. Every player seems to be in the best shape of their life or on track to come back from an injury. But how do we separate fact from fiction? This piece will look at players who are trending down heading into 2026 based on where they finished their fantasy baseball season in 2025. The average draft position (ADP) data referenced below is courtesy of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

Rafael Devers (1B – SF) | NFBC ADP: 54.4

Rafael Devers moved from Fenway Park (normally strong for left-handed power) to Oracle Park, which heavily depresses offense. His strikeout rate rose to 29.4% following the trade, well above his career average. In addition, Devers is losing third base eligibility in many fantasy leagues for 2026, significantly lowering his relative value. If Devers isn’t an ultra-elite power-hitting first baseman, is he worth a top-55 pick?

Devers’ spot has fallen five total picks in seven days, meaning he has lost 10% of his draft capital over the last week. I prefer Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino, who both go later, and I’m looking more at the elite pitchers in this range instead of Devers.

Carlos Estevez (RP – KC) | NFBC ADP: 98.3

How can someone who led all of Major League Baseball with 42 saves in 2025 find themselves outside the top 100 in early ADP? Saves are such a precious commodity that someone capable of 40+ should be going in the earlier rounds, right?

Carlos Estevez even had a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2025. What’s not to love? Well, the 20% strikeout rate, for starters. That is very uncharacteristic for a closer, who typically might be up around 30%. His expected ERA in 2025 was all the way up to 3.69, a long way from his actual number, and a warning sign of what’s to come.

Estevez gave up a lot of hard contact, didn’t generate a lot of ground balls and generally got outs in the air during his career year. That is not a recipe for success at Kauffman Stadium, as the team has decided to move in the fences for 2026, which should greatly benefit opposing batters.

We can probably pencil Estevez in for 20-25 saves, but it won’t come with the same sparkling ratios he had in 2025. Most projection systems give Estevez an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range for 2026, and the projections are all a long way from 40 saves.

Josh Hader (RP – HOU) | NFBC ADP: 81.7

Josh Hader’s stock is tumbling and getting closer and closer to pick 100 due to left biceps inflammation that has kept him off the mound this spring. The injury is particularly worrisome because it follows a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 season prematurely last August.

Hader and the team insist these two things are unrelated, but it’s hard not to tie them together when a pitcher who throws as hard as Hader does succumbs to multiple arm injuries. He hasn’t done more than throw on flat ground this spring.

Hader is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and why would Houston rush their five-year investment when they have fireballer Bryan Abreu waiting in the wings for the ninth inning until Hader can return?

At this point, it’s safe to say Hader will pitch in 2026, probably even early in 2026. But the Astros have been mysterious with injuries the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this turned into a long absence. Drafters beware.

Chandler Simpson (OF – TB) | NFBC ADP: 164.2

Is one mega-elite offensive skill worth the downside that comes with other parts of a player’s profile? That’s the question drafter must answer before they select Chandler Simpson this spring.

Simpson could offer 40+ steals, after he stole 44 bases last year and 70+ steals in three minor league seasons. But he has two total home runs in four years of his professional career. Simpson has also never had more than 31 RBI in any season.

Almost all projection systems slot Simpson in for zero home runs, 30 RBI and between 40 and 50 steals. If you load up on power in your roster early and can withstand a literal zero, Simpson can be a late-round target, but these zero-category producers are often left behind.

Simpson’s draft stock has fallen more than 60 spots due to those concerns, plus a minor hamstring injury that has sprung up.