5 Fantasy Baseball Fallers (2026)

It’s time to take another look at risers and fallers in the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. The following five fallers each have an average draft position (ADP) in the top 90 picks.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)

ADP on 2/13: 6.6 | ADP on 2/25: 12.6

The good news for Corbin Carroll is that he’s on the mend and could be ready for or shortly after Opening Day.

#Dbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll continues to rehab from a broken hand. Recently saw video of him taking one-handed swings in the cages…. So will he be ready for #OpeningDay? pic.twitter.com/G4ZvBlqrLT

— Cameron Cox (@CamCox12) February 24, 2026

Carroll is recovering from surgery to remove the hamate bone in his hand. Traditionally, a loss of power has been expected in the immediate aftermath of surgery to remove the hamate bone. Lately, the stats, albeit in a minuscule sample, haven’t supported the power outage.

Of course, recovery from surgery isn’t the same for everyone. As Anthony Castrovince noted in an article about hamate bone injuries, a 2020 study on the outcomes of surgery in the American Journal of Sports Medicine included 261 professional baseball players, and 81% of them returned at the same or a higher level. Mike Trout is a recent example of an outlier who didn’t make a seamless transition back to the diamond.

Carroll was the 12th-ranked hitter in VBR in 2025, and he’s the 10th-ranked hitter by ADP, despite uncertainty about his availability for Opening Day. Carroll will have rust to shake off when he returns after missing all of spring training. He could also be in the minority of players who don’t make a seamless return from hamate bone surgery.

The cost is still too expensive for Carroll. The middle to the end of the second round is a more appropriate range for Carroll. The talent going around him is too good to pass up for an already-hurt player.

Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)

ADP on 2/13: 16.2 | ADP on 2/25: 20.4

Francisco Lindor is in a similar boat to Corbin Carroll. New York’s do-it-all shortstop also had surgery to remove his hamate bone. Like Carroll, Lindor’s return will likely be around Opening Day.

Lindor was the 10th-ranked hitter in VBR last season, and he’s the 18th-ranked hitter in ADP. The gap is more palatable than Carroll, as Lindor has some wiggle room to have a sluggish start and break even or slightly outproduce his ADP. Still, Lindor carries the same risk of a slow start or complications from the surgery that Carroll has, and I’d need a more significant discount to roll the dice on Lindor.

I believe veteran fantasy scribe Scott Pianowski is the first person I saw succinctly caution gamers to avoid drafting injuries since they’ll find you anyway. In the middle and later rounds of drafts, it’s much easier to stomach taking a chance on injured players. The second round is a completely different story.

Hunter Brown (SP – HOU)

ADP on 2/13: 32.6 | ADP on 2/25: 35.2

Hunter Brown had a brilliant 2025 season, finishing as the 10th-ranked pitcher by our VBR metric. He was sharp in 2024 and kicked it up a notch in 2025, improving both his surface stats and underlying data. Brown’s 2.43 ERA in 2025 outkicked his 3.15 xERA, 3.19 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA. Still, the top pitchers often need a little luck and to outperform their ERA estimators to finish as the best fantasy options.

Brown was also a workhorse, logging 185.1 innings. He was 13th in innings last season. Among the 53 pitchers who tallied at least 160 innings in 2025, Brown ranked:

Third in ERA (2.43)
Seventh in xERA (3.15)
Eighth in xFIP (3.19)
11th in SIERA (3.39),
Tied for seventh in WHIP (1.03)
Seventh in strikeout rate (28.3%)
Tied for 11th in stuff+ (107)

Brown also had a 28.3 CSW%, 95 location+ and 103 pitching+. He is an outstanding anchor for fantasy baseball rotations. He was a stellar pick at his previous ADP and an even more appealing one at his new one.

Roman Anthony (OF – BOS)

ADP on 2/13: 50.2 | ADP on 2/25: 53.8

Roman Anthony finished his work in the minors last year in spectacular fashion, lighting up Triple-A before acquitting himself well in the Majors. In 303 plate appearances and 71 games for the Red Sox last year, Anthony had the following stats:

48 runs
8 home runs
32 RBI
4 stolen bases
13.2% walk rate
27.7% strikeout rate
.292 batting average
.258 xBA
.396 OBP
.463 slugging rate
.484 xSLG

Anthony had only a 20.3% strikeout rate in 434 career plate appearances in Triple-A. He also had a 10.7% SwStr% for the Red Sox last year, lower than the 2025 league average of 11% SwStr%. Anthony should drastically improve his strikeout rate this year, which can help him offset some batting average regression to his xBA, even if his batted-ball quality doesn’t improve.

In addition, according to Baseball Savant, Anthony was the second-most unluckiest hitter for home runs, with 12 expected homers compared to eight actual dingers, a -4.0 gap, trailing only Salvador Perez‘s -4.1 gap.

Anthony will have an opportunity to maximize his plate appearances and counting stats in 2026 since manager Alex Cora intends to keep him in the leadoff spot. Anthony’s Zeile consensus projections aren’t befitting a player worth his previous or current ADP.

Projections are largely a median expectation for a player, and Anthony has the tools and potential to leave his projections in the dust. Gamers shouldn’t go overboard chasing players who must exceed their projections to be a value at their ADP, but Anthony is a worthwhile gamble, especially for gamers who will offset picking Anthony with more surefire selections.

Shea Langeliers (C – ATH)

ADP on 2/13: 61.9 | ADP on 2/25: 69.0

Shea Langeliers entered the 2025 season as the prototypical power-over-average catcher. He crushed 22 homers with a .205 batting average in 490 plate appearances in 2023 and 29 home runs with a .224 batting average in 534 plate appearances in 2024.

Langeliers made his MLB debut in 2022, and he had a 29% strikeout rate in his first 1,177 plate appearances in The Show. He also had a 15.2% SwStr% during that span. Langeliers made measurable strides to become more than a slugger with a low batting average in 2025.

In 523 plate appearances last season, Langeliers recorded the following stats:

73 runs
31 home runs
72 RBI
7 stolen bases
6.9% walk rate
19.7% strikeout rate
.277 batting average
.251 xBA
.325 OBP
.536 slugging rate
.461 xSLG
11.9% SwStr%

Langeliers enjoyed some good fortune on his batted balls, but even his .251 xBA was rock-solid for a power-hitting catcher. Among players who primarily played catcher last year, Langeliers was tied for second in homers.

Hunter Goodman was the only other player whose primary position was catcher who hit at least 30 homers with a batting average over .250. Only one other primary catcher cleared 25 homers with a batting average above .250, and just four reached at least 20 homers and cleared a .250 batting average.

Langeliers’ improved swinging-strike rate bodes well for him retaining his reduced strikeout rate and some of his gains in batting average. He’ll also benefit from the A’s playing all but six home games in 2026 at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.

Langeliers was the 50th-ranked hitter by VBR last year, and he’s the 56th-ranked hitter by ADP. His previous ADP was probably a smidge too early, but his new one is appropriate.