7 Fantasy Baseball Busts (2026)

Finding sleepers and avoiding busts is one of the biggest edges you can create on draft day. Anyone can draft the obvious stars, but fantasy championships are usually decided by the managers who uncover value before the rest of the room catches on and avoid paying for production that’s unlikely to repeat.

Every year, a handful of players smash their ADP thanks to changing roles, improved skills, or simply better health. At the same time, some big-name players fail to justify their draft price as regression, declining skills, or playing-time concerns quietly creep in.

To help identify both sides of that equation, we asked our Featured Pros to highlight the sleepers they’re targeting and the busts they’re avoiding in 2026 drafts. Their insights can help you uncover undervalued players who could outperform expectations and steer clear of the landmines that can derail a fantasy roster.

Consensus Fantasy Baseball Busts

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust and why?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)

“I can’t get behind Pete Crow-Armstrong as a Top 30 player. I know, he had a breakout first half and was a league winner in many season-long roto leagues with his 30/30 season. However, he still does NOT hit left-handed pitching (.188 BA/.594 OPS vs LHP last season), and he collapsed in the second half (just 6 HR and a .216 BA and .634 OPS after the break). He’s always struggled against lefties, and I fear the league caught up to him in a big way after his hot start. I would rather have Wyatt Langford or Roman Anthony 20 picks later.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Ben Rice (C, 1B – NYY)

“Ben Rice will be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. People are paying insane prices to reach up and draft Rice when they can shave 5-8 home runs off his total and get the same catching profile 20+ rounds later. Home runs at catcher aren’t exactly the difference maker at the position, so that amount is so negligible. Go out and get Salvador Perez, Ryan Jeffers, Gabriel Moreno, and more for a fraction of the price.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)

Framber Valdez (SP – DET)

“Framber Valdez was solid last year with 13 wins in 192 innings and a 3.66 ERA. Despite the solid year, there were some concerning signs outside of him, crossing up his catcher and struggling to find a deal in free agency. His K% dropped to 23.3%, which was the lowest since 2021. His walk rate rose to 8.5%, also the biggest since 2021, and had an expected ERA higher than his actual ERA. He really struggled in the second half of the season, where his ERA went from a first half of 2.75 to a second half of 5.20. His new home in Detroit has around the same ballpark factor as Houston, according to Baseball Savant. According to the FantasyPros consensus ADP, he is going 78 overall. I don’t know if the floor and ceiling of value matchup for him to be a top-100 pitcher, and there are way too many better deals 30-50 spots lower.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Jose Altuve (2B, OF – HOU)

“Jose Altuve is still being drafted as a consensus top-100 pick based on name recognition, but his time as a top fantasy contributor is over. The speed is almost completely gone, as he stole 10 bases compared to 6 times caught stealing. He hit .265, but his .237 xBA was in the bottom quarter of the league. His saving grace was 26 HR, but it’s a small miracle he managed that based on his poor hard-hit rates and exit velocity. With no home defensively and diminishing returns on offense, Altuve could be in line for fewer PAs, lower counting stats, and a bust of a season.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Oneil Cruz (OF – PIT)

“Oneil Cruz will disappoint once again. You don’t get extra points for hitting the ball hard. He has power and speed, but making consistent contact is a problem. He batted. 200 last season and is a career .233 hitter. He hasn’t hit more than 21 home runs in a season and hasn’t had a strikeout rate of lower than 30.2% in the three seasons he has played at least 87 games. He is a career .172 hitter against left-handers. While the stolen bases are nice, the average is crushing.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)

Luis Robert Jr. (OF – NYM)

“The one player most likely to be the biggest fantasy baseball bust this year is Luis Robert Jr. of the New York Mets. Robert was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Mets in January 2026 in exchange for Luisangel Acuña and pitching prospect Truman Pauley. He has a history of injuries and missed time in multiple seasons. He was limited to 110 games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury. He has recently experienced a decline in production. Last season, he hit .223 with 14 HR, far below his peak in 2023. The move to the Mets actually raises his fantasy draft cost (better lineup, more hype), which can increase bust risk if he doesn’t bounce back.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

Cal Raleigh (C – SEA)

“I determine Bust/Sleeper decisions based on both ADP and production expectations, rather than a black and white, is he going to be truly atrocious in 2026 or not? Cal Raleigh is going to be good enough even when he regresses from what was an insane 2025. Everyone knows this. That’s not why I am projecting him as a bust. Regression is standard. I’m projecting him as a bust because he currently has an ADP of 13.4, while I expect him to swat somewhere between 25-30 home runs and bat .210 to .220 with a smidgeon of stolen bases for flavor. To draft someone at the top of the second round when he very possibly could perform something closer to Austin Wells or Yainer Diaz, who can be selected somewhere around 190 to 210, qualifies as a bust and a deep hole to dig yourself out of after draft day. Raleigh is likely to hit somewhere between 30-35 home runs while batting somewhere around .215-.235. That’s what he has typically been, and that’s what he will go back to being in 2026, with one major concern. Injuries. Catchers are exponentially more susceptible to significant regression than any other position in any other sport. It often happens within the same season, one half to the other, nevermind year-to-year. Raleigh’s going to produce less because of the wear and tear of playing such a physically pounding position, and he is likely, not possibly, but likely to miss games due to injury and fatigue after such a monstrous and grueling 2025. Don’t buy into the consensus trap. “Even if he regresses significantly, he is still going to hit 45 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a .245 batting average.” No No No. Look at his career numbers and HOPE that he can match THAT this year. THEN, think about whether you want to take on the risk of him playing 70-90 games while missing 70-90 while drafting him in the Top 15. If he’s available after Jackson Holliday in the 150s, take the upside risk. Otherwise, let someone else, at minimum, overpay for him and absorb the enormous risk that 2026 becomes a lost season entirely.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)