Every year, we make our fantasy baseball picks and fade the players we think may bust. However, we often don’t think about the players that we could have taken instead, with virtually the same profiles going much later.
Below is a list of players to fade and who to draft instead with similar profiles but with a lower average draft position (ADP).
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Fantasy Baseball Players to Draft & Fade
Fade Kyle Stowers (OF – MIA)/Draft Owen Caissie (OF – MIA)
Kyle Stowers has a ton of power and a questionable hit tool on a bad team. The bonus to the bad team part is that he will play, even if he struggles. However, Stowers is expensive.
Stowers is going at pick 126, according to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) ADP. A high price to pay for an unproven player. Why draft him there when you can get teammate Owen Caissie over 300 picks later? Caissie has the same power first profile on the same team, but is going at pick 489.
Fade Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)/Draft TJ Friedl (OF – CIN) or Justin Crawford (OF – PHI)
Steven Kwan is the perfect glue player who helps in the batting average category and isn’t a zero in the other categories. However, there are two similar players available later if you’d prefer not to pay up for Kwan, who is going at pick 163.
TJ Friedl is going to lead off in Cincinnati, which is arguably the best park to hit in in baseball. He has a season where he has hit .279 with 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Friedl’s is being drafted at pick 263.
Going even later is Justin Crawford. He hasn’t played in the Majors yet, but the Phillies love him and are going to give him the chance to play every day. He has a ton of speed and has hit .300 pretty much at every stop in the minors. Crawford’s going at pick 332.
Fade Chandler Simpson (OF – TB)/Draft Victor Scott (OF – STL) or Jacob Young (OF – WSH)
Do you need speed? Well, Chandler Simpson could be a God in that department, but there is a lot of risk. He is already dealing with a hamstring injury in spring training, and he is a bad defender, which the Rays care about. He is also going at pick 162, which isn’t free. However, there are two players much cheaper, and they can also run.
Victor Scott (pick 361) was a top prospect, and he will get a full run in St. Louis as the Cardinals rebuild. Jacob Young is even cheaper (pick 691). He isn’t a great hitter, but he does have a ton of speed and is going to play every day because his defense is exceptional.
Fade Matt Chapman (3B – SF)/Draft Max Muncy (3B – LAD)
Do you like older players who can hit 25-ish home runs and walk? Well, Matt Chapman is one such popular player. However, he’s going at pick 164. Why not draft Max Muncy at pick 251 instead?
Muncy missed time with an injury last year, but his ADP is criminally low. He is a good bet for 25-30 home runs and is elite at taking walks. Not to mention that he plays on a much better team.
Fade Jonathan Aranda (1B – TB)/Draft Andrew Vaughn (1B – MIL)
Jonathan Aranda is an industry favorite as a former top prospect with middling power and a good hit tool who finally broke out. Unfortunately, with the Rays moving back to Tropicana Field, the power probably regresses some. He is being drafted at pick 182, which is not super enticing when there are a lot of interesting first basemen.
You know what price is more enticing? Pick 303, which is the price of Andrew Vaughn, who was amazing after coming over from the White Sox. After joining the Brewers, Vaughn hit nine home runs and knocked in 46 RBI with a .308/.375/.493 triple slash in 254 plate appearances. He should be the everyday first baseman in Milwaukee.
Fade Brandon Lowe (2B – PIT)/Draft Nolan Gorman (2B, 3B, DH – STL)
Want a powerful second baseman in a bad lineup for a low price? Well, Brandon Lowe is a player you could take at pick 172. Not a terrible draft day cost, but he is always hurt and goes through prolonged slumps.
You can get the same profile way cheaper. Nolan Gorman has a good amount of pop and should play every day in St. Louis as they rebuild. He is currently going at pick 521.
Fade Xavier Edwards (2B, SS – MIA)/Draft Nasim Nunez (2B, SS – WSH)
Xavier Edwards is a speedy second baseman with a reasonable draft cost (pick 176). However, you can get a very similar player on a better offense and in a better park way later. One of my favorite sleeper picks this year is Nasim Nunez at pick 546.
Nunez has a ton of speed and stole 45 bases between AAA and the Majors last season in just 324 plate appearances. There isn’t much power to speak of, but he will play regularly and steal a ton of bases.
Fade Chase Burns (SP – CIN)/Draft Jacob Misiorowski (SP – MIL) or Connelly Early (SP – BOS)
People are falling in love with Chase Burns (pick 123), and for good reason. His stuff is unreal, and the command and control are effective enough. However, he dealt with elbow issues last season, and I do worry it is too much risk for a pitcher who throws so violently.
If you want to wait a little bit, you can get a very similar prospect in Jacob Misiorowski at pick 134, who was electric in his debut season but struggled some with control. If you want to get even deeper, Connelly Early (pick 246) is battling for a rotation spot in Boston, but has the same upside as Burns and Misiorowski without the big red flags.
You could also stash Jonah Tong (pick 430) or Ian Seymour (pick 359), who will likely not make Opening Day rotations, but have massive upsides and could be up very early in the season.
Fade Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)/Draft Zebby Matthews (SP – MIN)
I love high strikeout, low walk pitchers, but paying the price for Joe Ryan (pick 73) can be a little scary, given his health. Why not take a massive discount on teammate Zebby Matthews at pick 341?
Matthews had a 32% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate in the minors last season and a 25% strikeout rate in the Majors. He has amazing stuff. If healthy, he should be in the Twins’ Opening Day rotation.
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