Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. We are getting into the home stretch of the regular season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a solid six-game slate (or eight if you’re a FanDuel truther) tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Josh Giddey (PG, SG – CHI)
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,500
No Anfernee Simons. No Isaac Okoro. No Collin Sexton. No Jaden Ivey. The Bulls are 6-point home favorites. Time to load up Josh Giddey. The Bulls guard is going to be massively rostered tonight against a Grizzlies team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing guards over their last 15 games.
Giddey has a 25% usage rate this season and should see the court for extra time tonight — closer to 40 minutes — in a game with a projected total of 243 points. I expect a lot of points to be had in this one, and a good amount of them will be centered around Giddey. On FanDuel, he won’t be as highly rostered with more studs up top and games in general, but he’s still a solid play on both sites.
Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $9,700
With the surprising amount of value on the slate, it seems like people are moving off the higher-priced players, but I love Paolo Banchero tonight. Atlanta’s defense has been a solid unit of late, but it is susceptible in the front court while playing as the second-fastest team in the NBA.
Opportunity alone is propping Banchero up, while his 28% usage rate over the last two weeks of play is only continuing to rise. He doesn’t have to have the most efficient night to end up being optimal, and you don’t have to lock him into every lineup to be over exposed to the Duke product. It’s the first game of the day, but don’t be afraid to be overweight on the Orlando star.
Cooper Flagg (PG, SG, SF – DAL)
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $9,000
With more of a GPP-lean, Cooper Flagg isn’t getting enough love tonight. Dallas is playing in the second leg of a road back-to-back, and with the tank-a-thon going on in this league, I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniel Gafford and some other players end up missing tonight.
I expect this game to be more competitive than it’s shaping up, with New Orleans boasting a top-10 offense and a bottom-10 defense in their last 15 games. Flagg is coming off a 54-point effort against Cleveland, reminding us of his talent and capabilities. This game features one of the highest totals on the slate. With Flagg as the heartbeat of the Mavericks, I’m surprised he isn’t higher rostered with the potential to lead the slate in scoring.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
Dejounte Murray (PG, SG – NOP)
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $7,600
I’ll note up top that Dejounte Murray is battling an illness and that his status isn’t specified for the game, but he should be good to go. It’s interesting how much I’ve trusted the Pelicans of late, but they’ve quietly had a top-11 offense since the All-Star break. Murray hasn’t scored fewer than 30 fantasy points in seven straight games, and we can expect him closer to 40 tonight.
Murray’s pricing will continue rising over the next few weeks, and with the Pelicans as near double-digit favorites with a 240 total, New Orleans is due for a lot of points tonight, guided by Murray and his high rostership. Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy are in the same boat here, but don’t overload on Pelicans in too many lineups; mix and match as you see fit.
Bilal Coulibaly (SF, PF – WSH)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $5,600
Bilal Coulibaly in cash lineups? Trust Coulibaly’s floor tonight. He’s averaging 25 fantasy points this season and has gone over that number in four of his last six games, and the other two had limited minutes from foul trouble. Since the All-Star break, Golden State seems to be all but throwing in the towel. Their defense is a bottom-six unit, and tonight they’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, on the road, with half their team hurt.
De’Anthony Melton, Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Steph Curry are all either hurt or out right now. Golden State has to roster somebody, but with Leaky Black out for Washington on the other side, Coulibaly will get extra run against the Warriors’ B-team. With his pricing and relative consistency, I’m happy being overweight on Coulibaly tonight to open up roster flexibility elsewhere.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Jalen Johnson (PF, SF – ATL)
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $11,200
At the top of the board today, we have Jalen Johnson, who is at below 10% rostership. On a six-game slate, that is a little insane. Orlando is a pace-down spot, and they own a top-five defense right now, but there’s a reason why Johnson’s pricing has continued to rise.
Johnson has gone over 50 fantasy points in four straight games, and with the smaller slate, you’re going to need the pure points. We’ve seen him go over 70 fantasy points while managing a 27% usage clip. This game features a comfortable 230-point total, so Vegas expects some scoring tonight as well. Don’t keep Johnson off your rosters tonight in your GPPs.
Deni Avdija (SF, PF – POR)
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $9,300
Everyone is always scared to roster players going up against Brooklyn, but it’s not like Portland is going up against 2019 Virginia basketball here. Brooklyn’s post-All-Star defense is the third-worst unit in the league, and they’ve actually played quicker of late compared to their baseline season average.
We’ve seen Deni Avdija go over 57 points in three of his last six games while still staying sub-$9,000 on DraftKings. Portland is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, so the Trail Blazers’ lineup might get weird. Always monitor for late swapping and injury news, but with Avdija’s low rostership, he’s lining up to be a great leverage option tonight.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Jalen Smith (C, PF – CHI)
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,700
To go along with the Bulls missing four players, a lot of value rises to the surface. Jalen Smith is that value option at center tonight. The Bulls big man is capable of getting to 30 fantasy points against a sub-five defense.
Memphis is only behind Washington in how many fantasy points they allow to opposing centers over their last 30 games. Smith should see higher usage, higher minutes and better play tonight, earning over 5X return on investment (ROI) on his salary.
Jaylen Wells (SG, SF – MEM)
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $5,100
On the other side of the ball, there’s another Jaylen (different spelling) that’s a solid value as well. The Bulls have also been a sub-par defense post All-Star break while maintaining a top-three pace of play. It appears Ty Jerome and GG Jackson, along with Walter Clayton Jr., appear to be out tonight, which will give Jaylen Wells extra run.
Wells has performed well when being paced up, and the Bulls have allowed the third-most fantasy points across the board over their last 15 games. You can argue that Taylor Hendricks and Cam Spencer are value plays, too. Pay attention to the starting lineup, but Wells is the preferred play.
Quinten Post (C – GSW)
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $4,100
Hate to give you double-center options in the value spot tonight, but you have a lot of options. Yves Missi, Wendell Carter, Tristan Vukcevic and Daniel Gafford are also reasonable choices tonight.
With all the value available, tonight is a solid setup for multi-entering GPPs where you can diversify your portfolio of lineups. I don’t know if I need to go down the well again with how bad Washington is at playing this sport, but Quentin Post is in line for a 6X ROI type game.
