There’s no doubt who the elite running backs are, but they’re priced accordingly. Fantasy football gamers who can identify running backs outside of the top 24 at the position who can perform as top-12 running backs will have fantasy gold in 2026. The two forthcoming running backs have an average draft position (ADP) as high-end RB3s but have paths to finishing as RB1s.
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Fantasy Football RB3s With RB1 Potential
David Montgomery (RB – HOU) | Underdog ADP: 71.1/RB26
The Lions traded David Montgomery to the Texans, and the veteran running back is better positioned to handle a massive workload in his new home. Jahmyr Gibbs has been on an ascension since his rookie year, at Montgomery’s expense. The Texans missed Joe Mixon last year, and they’ve since released him after he missed the entire 2025 season with a mysterious foot injury.
Woody Marks was Houston’s top running back in his rookie season, leading the backfield in rushing yards (832; 46.2 per game) and pacing the running back room in route participation rate (34.9%), per the Fantasy Points data suite. He was unimpressive as both a runner and a receiver.
Among 55 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the regular season and postseason, Marks was:
- 48th in yards per carry (3.63)
- Tied for 47th in yards before contact per attempt (1.63)
- 39th in yards after contact per attempt (2.00)
- Tied for 36th in explosive run rate (3.5%)
- Tied for 54th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.06)
- Tied for 44th in success rate (46.7%)
- 40th in stuff rate (48%)
Marks wasn’t elusive, he didn’t gain hard yards and he wasn’t explosive.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Marks was tied for sixth in receptions (47) among FBS running backs in 2024, and he had an eye-popping 78 receptions for Mississippi State in 2021. However, Marks’ 1.13 yards per route run (YPRR) in his career and 1.10 YPRR in his final collegiate season at USC weren’t particularly impressive.
Marks didn’t turn heads with his receiving production as a rookie, either. Among 69 running backs with at least 75 routes last season, Marks was tied for 45th in targets per route run (0.16 TPRR) and tied for 48th in YPRR (0.93).
Montgomery recorded the following stats in 17 games last season:
- 158 rush attempts (9.3 per game)
- 716 rushing yards (42.1 per game)
- 4.53 yards per carry
- 2.08 yards before contact per attempt
- 2.45 yards after contact per attempt
- 3.8% explosive run rate
- 0.14 missed tackles forced per attempt
- 48.1% success rate
- 45.6% stuff rate
- 24.6% route participation rate
- 0.18 TPRR
- 24 receptions (1.4 per game)
- 192 receiving yards (11.3 per game)
- 1.25 YPRR
Montgomery was a markedly better runner, a better target-earner and a more efficient receiver than Marks. Montgomery is Houston’s best running back option in all situations. If he handles the bulk of the rushing work, goal-line duties and passing-game duties, with Marks only mixing in to spell him in empty-calorie situations between the 20s, Montgomery can emerge as an RB1 this year.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) | Underdog ADP: 76.8/RB27
Jaylen Warren was part of a potent two-headed backfield with Kenneth Gainwell last season. Gainwell departed for the Buccaneers in free agency, but the Steelers added Rico Dowdle, a running back whom new head coach Mike McCarthy coached in 2024, to replace Gainwell.
Warren and Dowdle finished back-to-back in half-PPR scoring last year, with Warren closing as the RB16 (197.1) and Dowdle as the RB17 (196.8). Gainwell also had a rock-solid season, finishing as the RB20 (184.8). How will Pittsburgh’s backfield shake out this season, and who will be their quarterback?
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t decided on playing yet, but that possibility is still on the table. Kirk Cousins could also be a consideration if Rodgers decides to hang up his cleats.
It’s equally unclear how McCarthy divvies up touches and opportunities between Warren and Dowdle. However, Warren had better underlying rushing and receiving numbers than Dowdle last year.
While PFF grades are imperfect, Warren had the eighth-highest pass-blocking grade (72.0) among 74 running backs and fullbacks with at least 50 blocking snaps last season, and Dowdle was 70th (24.6).
Warren should be favored to get the bulk of the passing-game work over Dowdle. The incumbent running back also had a higher success rate and lower stuff rate than Dowdle last season, which could bode well for him handling some or most of Pittsburgh’s goal-line work this year.
If Dowdle primarily serves as a between-the-20s grinder and Warren gets most of the high-value touches, he can improve on last year’s RB16 finish and crack the top 12 this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
