Josh Shepardson | Thu, Apr 2nd 2026, 9:57am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (4/2)

It’s a light MLB DFS slate, featuring three games at DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate starts at 2:10 p.m. ET, with the Royals hosting the Twins, but the remaining two games start at 9:40 p.m. ET and 9:45 p.m. ET. The pick ’em selections at Underdog are also from Thursday’s three contests.

Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/2)

David Peterson (SP – NYM) at San Francisco Giants

David Peterson and the Mets are -125 favorites on Thursday night, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The context is outstanding for Peterson.

The lefty’s matchup is also superb. Seven of San Francisco’s projected starters have had a sub-100 wRC+ against lefties since 2024, and Heliot Ramos (151 wRC+) is the only projected starter with a wRC+ north of 110.

Peterson is an adequate starting pitcher, which is not too shabby on this particular slate. According to FanGraphs, the 30-year-old lefty had a 4.22 ERA in 30 starts last year, lower than his 4.59 xERA, but higher than his 3.72 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA.

Peterson navigated traffic in his first start of the year, allowing six hits and two walks in 5.1 innings against the Pirates. Still, he held Pittsburgh scoreless. Peterson isn’t an exciting selection, but he’s the best pitching selection on the MLB DFS slate and has a palatable salary.

Robbie Ray (SP – SF) vs. New York Mets

Robbie Ray is opposing Peterson and the Mets, and while the Giants are slight underdogs (+105), the game’s total of 7.5 runs is also favorable for Ray. There’s potential for the game in San Francisco to be a left-handed pitching duel.

Among Thursday’s probable starters, Ray had the second-lowest ERA (3.65), the second-lowest xERA (3.70), the third-lowest WHIP (1.21), and the second-highest strikeout rate (24.6 K%) in 2025. Ray is arguably the most talented pitcher on today’s small and pitching-poor slate.

However, Ray’s matchup is challenging. Seven of New York’s projected starters have had at least a 105 wRC+ against lefties since 2024, and four have posted at least a 120 wRC+. The mathcup isn’t ideal, but Ray is talented enough to provide DFS value if he’s sharp.

Taj Bradley (SP – MIN) at Kansas City Royals

Taj Bradley is a wildcard tailor-made for GPPs. The 25-year-old righty’s 5.05 ERA in 27 starts last season was ugly, but his 4.09 xERA, 4.37 xFIP, and 4.45 SIERA weren’t as ugly. Bradley has some Ricky Nolasco to the relationship between his ERA and his ERA estimators, as he’s underachieved them annually.

Regardless, Bradley has massive strikeout potential thanks to his bat-missing stuff. He had a 21.0 K% last year, but he has a 25.2 K% for his career. Bradley also punched out nine Orioles in his first start this season. Bradley had a 128 stuff+ for his pitches in his first start this year. He’s posted 108 stuff+, 109 stuff+, and 102 stuff+ in his first three years in the Majors, too.

Bradley is capable of a meltdown. Having said that, he can also pile up strikeouts in bunches when he’s cooking or at least effectively wild. Chasing his strikeout potential in GPPs is viable on today’s three-game slate.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Road (Chase Field)
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ATL -125

Ryne Nelson is the reverse of Bradley. Nelson’s 3.39 ERA in 33 appearances (23 starts) in 2025 was markedly better than his 3.93 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.07 SIERA. The 28-year-old righty’s 2.71 ERA in 86.1 innings at home last year was also considerably better than his 3.67 xFIP.

Nelson got off to a rough start this year, too. He allowed four runs on two hits (both homers) and three walks with four strikeouts in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers. Atlanta’s projected lineup against Nelson has six players with at least a 107 wRC+ against righties since 2024, and four have logged at least a 120 wRC+. The Braves have a talented offense that can rough up a lucky hurler coming off an ugly start to his 2026 campaign.

Home (Chase Field)
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ARI +104

Reynaldo Lopez made one start last March before he missed the season while recovering from arthroscopic surgery to clean up his shoulder. He allowed only one run in his 2026 debut. However, Lopez allowed two hits (one homer) and issued two walks with only three strikeouts in six innings.

His fastball velocity averaged 94.4 mph in his first start this year after averaging 95.5 mph in 2024 and 95.6 mph in his only start last year. Lopez’s pitch modeling was also dreadful in his first start. He generated 90 stuff+, 85 location+, and 78 pitching+ in his first start this season. Maybe Lopez will take a step forward, but the Diamondbacks can tee off if he doesn’t.

Core Studs

Ronald Acuna has smashed 19 homers with a .390 OBP, .188 ISO, .374 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ in 472 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Austin Riley has hit 26 homers with a .310 OBP, .183 ISO, .323 wOBA, and 107 wRC+ in 710 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Ketel Marte has launched 38 long-balls with a .365 OBP, .227 ISO, .369 wOBA, and 137 wRC+ in 762 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Geraldo Perdomo is coming off a breakout age-25 season in which he scored 98 runs with 20 homers, 100 RBI, 27 stolen bases, a .389 OBP, .173 ISO, .370 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, and 138 wRC+ in 720 plate appearances.

Value Plays/Punts

Gabriel Moreno has hit 12 homers with a .349 OBP, .138 ISO, .331 wOBA, and 112 wRC+ in 476 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Jordan Lawlar was one of MLB’s top prospects, oozing tools. However, he hasn’t enjoyed much success in his cups of coffee in The Show. Lawlar is off to a somewhat encouraging start to this season, though. In 17 plate appearances in 2026, he has two runs, one RBI, one stolen base, a .353 OBP, .063 ISO, .329 wOBA, and 110 wRC+.

Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL): 15.5 Pitching Outs — Lower (0.80x Payout)

Lopez recorded 18 outs in his first start of the year, but he required good luck to allow only one run, and a little less good fortune tonight will make it difficult for him to clear 15.5 pitching outs. He’ll also need to be efficient after throwing only 77 pitches in his season debut, and reaching as high as just 80 pitches in Spring Training. The Diamondbacks should chase him before he records 16 outs.

Taj Bradley (SP – MIN): 4.5 Strikeouts — Higher (0.88x Payout)

Bradley struck out nine batters and posted a blistering 17.4 SwStr% in his season debut in Baltimore. Furthermore, Bradley has struck out at least five batters in 17 of 28 starts since last season.

Ketel Marte (2B – ARI): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher (0.93x Payout)

Marte stuffed the box score last year. In 126 games and 556 plate appearances last season, he had 136 hits, 87 runs, 72 RBI, a .283 batting average, .285 expected batting average, and .376 OBP. He should give Lopez fits and can also succeed against Atlanta’s bullpen if he doesn’t clear 1.5 hits plus runs and RBI before Lopez exits the contest.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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