NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Thursday (4/30)

Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. The playoffs are here, and the series’ have been a lot more interesting than I would have expected. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a little bit less important on a three-game playoff slate, but it’s still necessary because any edge is helpful for late swaps. Aaron Gordon and Bones Hyland are both questionable, and being able to late swap after their injury information releases is quite valuable. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Jayson Tatum (PF/SF – BOS)

DraftKings: $9,500
FanDuel: $10,000

Thought I was going to start with Nikola Jokic again, didn’t you? Not this time! Besides Jokic, Tatum is projects the highest on the slate by a healthy margin. He’s also the second-most expensive, but he’s shown how he can get to over 53 fantasy points in four of his five games, nearly breaking 60 last time out with a sub-par offensive performance. I’m buying all the Celtics stock I can right now because they are due for a major bounce back, even on the road. The 76ers have put up a good fight, and I expect this game to be competitive, but this feels like it’s going to wrap nicely with Boston around seven point favorites here.

Ayo Dosunmu (PG/SG – MIN)

DraftKings: $6,600
FanDuel: $7,200

After scoring just 30 fantasy points last time out, Ayo Dosunmu is due for a pendulum swing back towards a 50-plus fantasy point type performance he had in Game 4. I’m not sure if he is capable of getting to that level of production again, but he is still very capable of performing to a high enough level that makes him likely to be an optimal play here. When I say likely, I mean about 30 percent, but that’s the expected ownership number on him here, so if that rises, I’ll be a little bit less on him than consensus. Right now, however, he’s an easy plug-and-play option in the highest game total on the slate.

Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK)

DraftKings: $8,200
FanDuel: $8,500

DraftKings has done a solid job this slate with pricing to make a lot of stars viable fantasy options. Brunson was $8k in Game 5, and after going off for 55 fantasy points, they adjusted a bit, but he’s still relatively cheap compared to his seasonal average. Of course, it’s because of the smaller slate, but seeing how he’s played at minimum 34 minutes a night, I expect the Knicks to lean more on their star guard in their attempt to eliminate Atlanta. His two games on the road in these playoffs haven’t been the best, but across a larger sample size in the season, we haven’t seen any major road splits that make me fearful for Brunson’s ability for a ceiling performance.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

OG Anunoby (PF/SF – NYK)

DraftKings: $6,500
FanDuel: $7,400

It feels like half the slate today is priced as tempting cash offers tonight. No one leads the pack more than Anunoby. The Knicks forward has scored no fewer than 30 fantasy points in every game this series and has shown a ceiling of 52 in game three. He’s consistently on the floor, playing around 37 minutes a night over these five games, and he’s still being worked into the offense enough to trust his projection around 34 fantasy points. Josh Hart slots in as a clear cash play too with his guard-forward status, but Anunoby has been a bit more consistent, and doesn’t enter today with a Q-tag like Hart.

Julius Randle (PF – MIN)

DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $8,300

Without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo, most of the Minnesota team has become quite viable in the fantasy streets. Pricing has been adjusted a bit to counter that, but on DraftKings, it still feels a bit soft, which makes it easy to mix and match different Timberwolves players, Randle being one of them. Jaden McDaniels also slots in well here at a bit cheaper price, but we saw a 32 percent usage rate out of Randle in the first full game with the new look Wolves and a 47 fantasy point performance. I expect more of that tonight, where Minnesota will need Randle to perform if they expect to send Denver home.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Joel Embiid (C – PHI)

DraftKings: $8,600
FanDuel: $9,800

At $8,600 on DraftKings, Embiid almost feels like the sirens calling you in with their beautiful songs just to eat you alive. After having the appendectomy, the 76ers’ big man has been back just two games but has hit the ground running, scoring over 50 in both of them. Now with Philly returning home and having a bit more time to recover, there’s a chance he gets even more playing time and higher usage. It feels risky simply because his name is Joel Embiid and he appears to be the walking wounded, but on DraftKings, I’d be surprised if his ownership doesn’t continue creeping up throughout the day. VJ Edgecombe for Philly also lines up nicely in the GPP streets.

Of course, the other center discussion for a GPP play is Nikola Jokic. While I do like him tonight in a bubble, it’s just tough to find a lot of pure value options tonight to go with him. There are so many $6k-$8k players I love tonight that it’s hard to see Jokic being optimal tonight unless he goes for 75 fantasy points. Of course, that is viable, and I’ll find him in my GPP lineups, but I’m going to be under-owned across the slate today.

Jalen Johnson (PF/SF – ATL)

DraftKings: $8,600
FanDuel: $8,800

After starting the series at $9,400, Johnson’s price has continued to fall, and he’s now majorly discounted. Of course, that’s the case because he’s only gone over 50 fantasy points once in the five-game series, but now feels like the right time to buy back stock on the Hawks forward. Even projecting him below his seasonal average of around 45 fantasy points still gives him 5.30X value, which is his median outcome. We know he’s capable of more, and with their backs against the wall at home, there’s no better opportunity to reach a ceiling performance than tonight.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Bones Hyland (PG/SG – MIN)

DraftKings: $4,500
FanDuel: $4,500

I mentioned with my Jokic blurb that there aren’t many pure value plays I love to make spending up a clear option. Even Bones Hyland, who projects well, is questionable tonight with a left knee injury. In the last two games, Hyland has played more than 20 minutes and has put up about 1.0 FPPM. Of course, he’s now $1k more expensive, but he still is in the most friendly environment for fantasy among any of the three games and has a clear path to reaching 25 fantasy points.

Bruce Brown (PG/SG/SF – DEN)

DraftKings: $3,600
FanDuel: $3,900

Your punt play of the night, on the other side of the ball, is Bruce Brown. We saw to open the series how he’s capable of scoring over 30 fantasy points any given night, and that obviously would be an ideal outcome. He’s been consistently playing over 20 minutes, so the opportunity should be there, especially if Aaron Gordon ends up out.