Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. The NBA playoffs are on the horizon. A lot of playoff odds have shaken up recently with injuries and players returning, but things are getting tight as teams jockey for position. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a small four-game slate on DraftKings (five on FanDuel) tonight, so you might have to get a little creative with your roster construction and NBA DFS picks. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. The NBA playoffs are on the horizon. A lot of playoff odds have shaken up recently with injuries and players returning, but things are getting tight as teams jockey for position. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a small four-game slate on DraftKings (five on FanDuel) tonight, so you might have to get a little creative with your roster construction and NBA DFS picks. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $11,500
- FanDuel: $13,100
With a small slate, points are going to come at a premium. It’s hard to find anyone with a higher ceiling than Victor Wembanyama, and I’m willing to eat the chalk here, especially on DraftKings, where you don’t have the Nikola Jokic option.
The Spurs big man has been on a heater, scoring over 76 fantasy points in three straight games. While Philadelphia is getting healthier, I still expect Joel Embiid to have a tough time stopping Wembanyama down low, and the 237 total is the highest on the slate on DraftKings. He is obviously a bit pricey, but if you can afford him, there’s no reason not to roster Wembanyama tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,300
- FanDuel: $8,500
That’s right, two frontcourt pieces back-to-back in my core plays. Cleveland is lining up for major rostership tonight, depending on how things shake out. They are playing in the second game of a back-to-back (Evan Mobley rested yesterday), so there’s a good chance they rest both James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
Jarrett Allen is questionable to go along with it, so assuming Mobley starts, he might be the main focal point of the offense in a friendly matchup. Memphis has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing big men over their last 30. It feels like the Grizzlies, along with half the league, have already thrown in the towel. Again, monitor injury news, but Mobley went for 68 points three games ago to showcase his ceiling potential, and I expect another boom performance for Mobley here tonight.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,500
- FanDuel: $8,000
Stephon Castle has steadily crept up in price all season, and I’m here for it. He hasn’t gone below 30 fantasy points in seven straight games and more recently has gotten to 38 in three of his last four outings. His minutes have jumped to 32 a night over the last two weeks, while his usage has stayed steady at 25% when he’s on the court.
We’ve seen him play more in closer games (or obviously in overtime matches), and I can see the 76ers keeping this one close, considering they have a full roster now. Castle looks to be 27% rostered in early projections right now. Against the 18th-ranked defense since the All-Star break, who also ranks seventh in pace of play, there will be plenty of opportunities for Castle to get there. De’Aaron Fox is someone I don’t hate in this spot either, or Jalen Suggs of Orlando, if we’re talking guards.
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $7,400
On paper, this seems like a riskier play with the “1st” in the opponent rank column next to Onyeka Okongwu’s name on DraftKings. But you can tell by the price difference on the two sites how much of a value you’re getting on the Atlanta big man here.
Okongwu has covered 34 fantasy points in three straight games and projects for around 33 tonight with Jock Landale still out. With no backup center, Okongwu will be leaned on more and see a bump in minutes more than he already has. Of course, it’s a pace-down spot with the lowest total of the slate, but it’s still a play I’m comfortable with.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $10,500
More recently, Jalen Johnson has moved into the GPP category. It hasn’t been great. Winning GPPs requires risk and a long-term strategy, so don’t get frustrated when things don’t work out for a week or two. In his last six games, we’ve seen Johnson go over 50 fantasy points in four of them, but he hasn’t gone over 55, which we need for a GPP bink.
Considering the matchup against New York, the third-slowest team in the league right now, Johnson will be under-rostered here. Which is exactly where I want him. Further down, we’ve seen the Atlanta power forward go over 70 fantasy points, and he had a consistent stretch covering 60. It’s well within reason that the Hawks star is leaned on more here as they try to lock up the No. 5 seed.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,200
Another player who hasn’t won me a lot of money this year that I’m going back to the well on is Paolo Banchero. He’s coming off a 57-point effort yesterday and coming home to host Detroit. I don’t think it’s crazy to see him go over 50 again. It’s for sure a top 10th percentile outcome, but it’s also just nice to see.
Despite their high-ranking defense, Detroit has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in their last 10 games, which isn’t tanking territory but still a bit alarming for what should be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is still only one game back from being able to play out of the NBA Play-In Tournament, so I have to imagine they’re pulling out all the stops while the Pistons are locked into the No. 1 seed.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,500
Honestly, if you’re looking for a value play, you could probably throw a dart at any Cleveland or Memphis player, and it would be a good pick. Again, monitor injury news for updates. Set an alarm on your phone. Assuming Dennis Schroder starts tonight, he might be the highest-rostered player on the slate, projecting for over 30 fantasy points.
Sam Merrill might also get the start at sub-$5,000, and even Keon Ellis is a solid option. On the other side, you have Cam Spencer as a clear value play along with Javon Small. Memphis has six different players with some injury designation tonight, so a lot can change, but value will rise to the top without a doubt.
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $5,800
If you’re looking for a punt play at center tonight, look no further than Paul Reed. Again, you can see the pricing difference showcases the value you’re getting on DraftKings simply because he’s so cheap.
Reed has gone over 23 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including a 47-point effort. Tobias Harris is questionable tonight. If he sits, there’s a good chance Paul Reed becomes the best value play on the slate. Even with Harris in the lineup, Reed projects well.
