Here are a few dynasty rookie draft picks to avoid in fantasy football leagues based on 2026 NFL Draft landing spots and outlook.
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Fantasy Football | 9 Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Avoid
Ty Simpson (QB – LAR)
Simpson has the arm strength to make every throw required of an NFL quarterback. His ball placement and accuracy are erratic. Simpson will be locked in for a few throws and then sail or dirt an easy checkdown or toss a pass behind a receiver on a crossing route. His accuracy also suffers when he’s on the move. With his accuracy issues on the move and his statue-esque mobility, Simpson isn’t an off-script artist. He’s at his best when he can hit his three or five-step drop and fire the ball to a receiver when the back foot hits the ground. Many of Simpson’s second-level throws are on a line. He’ll need to improve with layering his passes to the second-level. There are some examples of this on film, but it’s not done with nearly enough regularity. Simpson will get stuck in his progressions. He’ll hang on his first read too long, way too often. He’ll miss wide receivers running wide open that are later in the progression. Simpson feels a tick behind on many plays because of his propensity to linger on his first read, but also because he operates as an extreme “see it throw it” quarterback. Receivers will snap off the top of their stem and flash open, and Simpson will then fire the ball in their direction. This won’t do on any level in the NFL with both of these tendencies holding him back. This will become even more pronounced with the speed and spacing of the NFL game. Simpson’s play against pressure is variable. He’ll step up in the pocket with composure at times or hang in the pocket and deliver an accurate ball when absorbing a big hit, but he also has concerning plays. Simpson will get happy feet versus pressure and bail workable pockets or rush his mechanics. He’ll need to become more of a steadying presence versus pressure to make it in the NFL with his lack of off-script artistry. Butter fingers impacted Simpson’s counting stats from his receiver depth chart last season. He dealt with the third-most drops among FBS signal callers (8.9% drop rate, 35th per PFF). Dynasty Outlook: Yes, it’s true. I’m not a big believer in Ty Simpson, but it seems like the Rams are after selecting him with the 13th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Simpson will be Matthew Stafford‘s understudy for the remainder of Stafford’s career. Sean McVay was very clear in post-draft pressers that this remains Stafford’s team. The Rams have been rumored to be working on an extension with Stafford, so it remains to be seen when we’ll likely see Simpson taking regular-season snaps for the Rams. This is a Michael Penix situation that could take longer to develop with a better quarterback in front of the rookie. If Stafford stays healthy, I doubt we’ll see Simpson play in 2026 or maybe even 2027. If you’re selecting Simpson in rookie drafts, you’re going to have to be patient with him. Even though I’m not a Simpson believer with first-round draft capital attached to his name, he should be a late first-round/early second-round selection in Superflex rookie drafts simply based on draft capital attached to his name. This feels like another Kenny Pickett/Mac Jones/Michael Penix type of situation to figure out for dynasty.
Germie Bernard (WR – PIT)
Bernard has played on the perimeter and in the slot during his collegiate career. In his final collegiate season, he ran 62.2% of his routes from the perimeter. Bernard will likely see a move back to the slot in the NFL. He has a strong understanding of attacking zone coverage and route pacing, with the knack of finding the holes in zone. Bernard’s raw speed is lacking. He doesn’t have the raw juice to threaten NFL corners as a downfield receiver. He lacks explosive movements off the line at the top of his route stem. He gains late separation in his routes and can fight through physical corners with his solid upper body strength. Bernard also displays a decent understanding of leverage and setting up corners. Unfortunately, it won’t get him far in the NFL with his athleticism limitations. He’s able to make some things happen with the ball in his hands thanks to his upper body strength and his tackle-breaking ability. Bernard ranked 21st among wide receivers in 2025 in missed tackles forced. Bernard has a dependable set of hands with only a 2.5% drop rate in college and one drop in his final season. Dynasty Outlook: Yes, I know I’m a fabled Germie Bernard hater. I think he’ll be a solid NFL player, but I question his upside. His collegiate production profile is middling at best. He has a 33rd percentile college dominator and a 21st percentile breakout age. Over the last two years, he has ranked 175th and 73rd in yards per route run. I’m not taking a risk on him any earlier than the early third round of rookie drafts. In many cases, he’ll already be off the board. I’m ok with missing the Bernard boat in rookie dynasty drafts.
Brenen Thompson (WR – LAC)
Elite speed. Thompson can hit the gas and run by corners. He has electric acceleration and regains top speed effortlessly as a double move demon. Thompson has crisp footwork and route running, but if physical corners can run with him and get their hands on him, it’s not tough to press him into oblivion. Thompson has a quick gear down on comebacks with the added advantage of an extra cushion. Corners will play off him more as they protect against his speed and getting burned downfield. Thompson can track deep balls with the best of them. I don’t foresee him being a high-volume receiver in the NFL because of his size, but he can easily be a situational deep threat with some manufactured touch usage. Last year, 29.9% of his target volume came via deep targets, and 45.3% of his receiving yardage was from deep passing (five of his six touchdowns). Thompson can break a defense with his speed and vision in the open field, but he won’t offer much YAC if a defender can get their hands on him. He is brought down easily once contacted. With his size, he absorbs some massive hits. Dynasty Outlook: Thompson was selected by the Bolts in the beginning of the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He profiles as a low-volume field stretcher in the NFL. His speed is amazing, but his size will limit his volume and his red zone usage. In previous seasons, I have gravitated to this archetype with Xavier Worthy and KJ Hamler, but this year I’ll use those lessons learned and avoid Thompson. If you’re taking the plunge on the speedster, I wouldn’t do it until the early fourth round of dynasty rookie drafts.
Zachariah Branch (WR – ATL)
Branch is a manufactured touch and an underneath target option for an NFL offense. He finishes college with a 5.2 aDOT (3.6 in 2025) and a 77.9% slot rate. Branch has a compact, muscular build that lends itself to after-the-catch production. In 2025, 77.4% of his targets were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage or behind it. 49.4% of his target volume was via screens as he ranked second in screens among all FBS wide receivers. Branch has immediate and palpable speed. He looks shot out of a cannon as soon as the ball is in his hands. In 2025, he ranked 16th in yards after the catch per reception (ninth in 2024) and 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Branch has the raw speed and after the catch ability to take any low aDOT target to the house. Branch has underrated route-running chops when he was able to flash them in 2025. He sets up corners well with subtle jab steps while displaying a solid grasp of manipulating a corner’s leverage. There is upside here that he could be a more diverse player than his collegiate usage foretells. It’s just a projection, though. Many times, NFL teams don’t draft players of this archetype for who they can become, but target them for who they are, what they bring to the table skillset-wise as a prospect. Dynasty Outlook: Branch was selected by the Atlanta Falcons in the third round of the NFL Draft. I’ll be avoiding him in rookie drafts. In college, he was a screen merchant. We have seen this archetype of wide receiver fail time and time again in the NFL (Rondale Moore and Malachi Corley). I’m trying to learn from past mistakes here. If you want to take the chance on Branch, I wouldn’t do it any earlier than the mid-to-late third round of rookie drafts. I won’t be following you down that road.
Nicholas Singleton (RB – TEN)
Singleton can be tentative at the line at times. He’ll operate in a gap scheme more efficiently with clear running lanes with the play design (53% gap runs over his final two collegiate seasons). His vision isn’t horrible down-to-down, but it’s an area that could use some cleaning up. Singleton is a linear player who isn’t a violent or explosive mover when changing directions. His steps can get choppy at times as he loses speed in the process. Singleton isn’t a player who will juke you out of your socks. He’s a runner that isn’t going to create a ton of yards on his own. Singleton is a high-cut runner with the necessary upper-body strength to break loose wraps and tacklers that attack him high. The other side of the coin is also true, though. Singleton can be chopped down by tacklers aiming at his waist and below. Singleton has solid pass-pro skills. He works with a strong base. Singleton has plenty of reps where he stands up incoming rushers or redirects them out of the quarterback’s wheelhouse. With 173 collegiate pass blocking snaps, he allowed only three sacks and ten hurries. Singleton is an adequate check-down option in the passing game. He finished top 24 in yards per route run among backs in two of his final three collegiate seasons. He lacks the change of direction ability and explosive short area agility to become a true pass game weapon with a varied route tree, but he should easily be a trusted option with swings and flat routes. Singleton cleaned up drops in his final season with only one after posting a 7.1% or higher drop rate in each of the previous three seasons. Dynasty Outlook: Nicholas Singleton arrives with the Titans via the fifth round of the NFL Draft. Singleton will start the process as the RB4 on the depth chart, but it wouldn’t shock me if he were Tony Pollard‘s backup by Week 1. Pollard and Tyjae Spears are unrestricted free agents after the 2026 season. I know the odds are slim for a fifth-round pick to walk into the next season as the unquestioned starter for an NFL team, but Singleton could have that run out if everything breaks right for him in 2026. I’m lower on him as a talent, but he’s a decent upside bet that could be made cheaply in dynasty rookie drafts.
Carson Beck (QB – ARI)
Beck’s experience shows up consistently. With five years of collegiate starting experience under his belt, he is strong moving through progressions. He can quickly move from his first to second read and beyond, and flips to his checkdown quickly when necessary. Beck is a rhythm passer with the arm strength to access all three levels of the field. He’s at his best when he’s peppering the short and intermediate with accurate darts. He can layer a second-level throw quite well. Beck’s deep ball can be variable, with some lacking arch for receivers to run under or being short-armed, and receivers are left waiting on it. Beck has a quick release and easy, repeatable mechanics. When he’s locked in, Beck can toss some nice throws downfield, though. He needs to improve the consistency of his deep ball. The biggest worry with Beck is his moxy. He has no fear of ripping some questionable throws into tight windows. At times, these throws can be worrisome considering his arm talent, but I appreciate his willingness to push the envelope. He’ll have to recalibrate this aggression once in the NFL and relearn what he can get away with. Beck’s aggressive nature as a passer will also leave him willing to make some throws that can put his receivers in harm’s way. Beck will thread the needle at times into congested areas of the field with multiple defenders bearing down, only for his receiver to be led into traffic, absorbing a big hit. He’s a pocket passer that won’t add much with his legs to an NFL offense. Beck finished college without surpassing 200 rushing yards in any collegiate season. Dynasty Outlook: Carson Beck lands with the Arizona Cardinals and is vaulted into a wide-open depth chart. His only competition to starting in 2026 is Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. I don’t foresee a long starting career for Beck. At this juncture, he’s a known commodity as a passer. Beck is at his best when he’s getting the ball out on time and peppering the second-level with throws. His deep ball accuracy can be spotty. Beck is worth a dice roll in dynasty rookie drafts, but only as a possible sell candidate to a team in your league if he gets a cup of coffee as the starter in 2026. I don’t foresee him getting a long runway under center for Arizona over multiple years. This is a team that should still firmly be in the market for a quarterback in the 2027 draft class.
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Adam Randall (RB – BAL)
Randall is a former collegiate wide receiver who converted to running back for his final college season. His wide receiver background shows up immediately with his nimble feet for his size and route-running ability. Clemson didn’t really utilize his receiving skills as he was mostly just a checkdown option in the passing game, but he did flash with the occasional slot slant or wheel route. His hands are also questionable, which is concerning, considering his background. He had six drops in his final college season (49 targets). He has average burst as a linear and upright runner. His upright running style can lead to him crumbling like a house of cards at times, especially when he is contacted low. He can break tackles and run through the opposition when he has a head of steam built up in the second level on occasion. Randall isn’t a dynamic player in space. Randall doesn’t convert his size and strength to power in the run game. He runs like a 5’9″ back at times. His tweener skill set makes him a hard player to project at the next level. I could easily see him functioning as an H back in the NFL, but his play strength will need to improve to fill that role. He’s not a pile moving back despite his large frame. He’s more comfortable in space on toss plays or outside zone plays, where he does have a decent feel of flowing laterally before bursting upfield. Randall can be tentative at the line at times, but he was more decisive as a runner later in the 2025 season. Dynasty Outlook: The former collegiate wide receiver was selected in the fifth round of the NFL Draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Randall got some buzz in the predraft process for his former wide receiver designation, but I’m fading that. He runs like a former wide receiver, which isn’t a good thing. The athleticism doesn’t translate to production on the field at this point, and I don’t foresee that changing in the NFL. He’ll have to compete with Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali for the RB2 job for Baltimore behind Derrick Henry. Hill is a free agent after this season, so it’s possible that Randall will be the RB2 entering 2027 if Baltimore doesn’t add more bodies to the backfield next year. I’ll let others chase the Randall hype and avoid him in most drafts.
Demond Claiborne (RB – MIN)
The backbone of Claiborne’s game is his raw speed (4.37 40 time). He’s a linear runner that can stomp the gas and manage explosive runs with this speed. Claiborne isn’t a twitchy player, though. Especially for a smaller back, he struggles with change of direction and has to utilize choppy steps to do so. Claiborne’s vision isn’t great. He lacks the patience at times to allow running lanes and blocks to develop in front of him. He routinely misses cutback lanes. He should be tasked with gap runs in the NFL that give him a well-defined running lane and allow him to get upfield quickly. He was just utilized as a checkdown option in college. He was mainly tasked with dump-offs and flat routes. He doesn’t have a trusty set of hands. In his final collegiate season, he had five fumbles and six drops. Claiborne struggles as a blocker. In pass pro, Claiborne’s size and lack of play strength show up. He’s unable to anchor or move incoming rushers out of the pocket. If he’s on the field in the NFL in passing down situations, he’ll be best deployed by running routes. Last year, with 42 pass blocking snaps, he allowed four hurries and four pressures. Dynasty Outlook: The slender speedster was selected in the sixth round of the NFL Draft by the Vikings. He enters a depth chart led by Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. Jones hasn’t been the picture of health over the last few years in the NFL, so it’s possible at some point that Claiborne could be operating as Mason’s complement at some point in the 2026 NFL season. I’m not high on Claiborne as a player. The speed is real, but he’s not an illustrious tackle breaker, and the size will limit his volume even if he is active and garnering touches at some point this season. He’s a fourth-round/final-round selection in rookie drafts that can be easily stashed on a taxi squad.
Drew Allar (QB – PIT)
Drew Allar sustained a fractured ankle in 2025, which ended his season. Even before this injury, he didn’t project to be a rushing threat in the NFL. In 2023-2024, Allar averaged 254 rushing yards with 3.0 yards per carry. He has the size to be a goal-line option, but I don’t see him being an option with the designed quarterback run game. Allar is a developmental quarterback prospect with the raw tools as a passer that could entice an NFL team to take the leap. He needs a lot of refinement on a down-to-down basis to develop into a legit starting NFL quarterback option. Allar has an NFL arm in terms of raw strength and velocity, but the accuracy is a problem. His ball placement can be erratic at all three levels. Most of his passes are on a line and lack touch and layering. Wide receivers are left waiting on his deep ball at times. His footwork can lapse at times, which impacts his accuracy and his timing on deeper dropbacks. He’ll drift in the pocket on some plays. His trigger can be variable. Allar will get the ball out on time with some passing plays, but he’ll also hold the ball and get behind the play as well with some reps. He doesn’t trust his eyes at times and will pat the ball like he’s burping a newborn baby. When his first read isn’t there at times, he’ll immediately drop his eyes and look to take off and run. Allar can access his second and third reads at times, but it’s not consistent. His pacing through progressions is erratic, as he’ll also fly through his first read at times early in a play. Allar doesn’t deal with pressure well. He’ll bail pockets at the first sniff of pressure with some plays or hang in with antsy feet and a frantic approach to make a play. Dynasty Outlook: Well, we have arrived at one of the most head-scratching picks of the draft. I wasn’t in on Allar as a prospect pre-draft, and I won’t be drafting him after landing with the Steelers in the third round of the NFL Draft. I didn’t like his tape, and the analytics back up my disdain. Over the last two years, Allar has ranked outside the top 50 FBS passers in adjusted completion rate, outside the top 120 passers in deep ball rate, and outside the top 80 in aDOT. His pocket presence is erratic, as is his processing. I will be avoiding him in rookie drafts.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
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