Every fantasy baseball season comes with a handful of draft picks we’d like to have back.
Sometimes it’s bad luck. Sometimes it’s injuries. And sometimes it’s a reminder that our draft process needs to evolve.
In a recent FantasyPros discussion, Joe Orrico and Chris Towers looked back at the biggest draft-day regrets from the first half of the season. Rather than simply labeling players as busts, they focused on identifying where the evaluation process went wrong and what fantasy managers should learn before next year’s drafts.
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Fantasy Baseball Draft Regrets: What the Biggest Busts of 2026 Can Teach Us for Next Season
The result was less about individual players and more about becoming a better fantasy manager.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Was a Lesson in Chasing the Ceiling
No player sparked more discussion than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Chris Towers argued that Guerrero may have been the clearest example of poor draft process. The conversation centered on fantasy managers focusing too heavily on his best seasons while overlooking the larger body of work.
The appeal was obvious. Guerrero has flashed MVP-level production before, and his postseason performance only fueled optimism entering draft season.
The problem, according to the panel, was assuming that ceiling represented his most likely outcome.
Even during a disappointing season, Guerrero has remained a useful fantasy player. He’s still contributing in batting average and run production, but he hasn’t delivered the elite power expected from a first-round selection.
The discussion repeatedly returned to one issue: his inability to consistently elevate the baseball.
The talent hasn’t disappeared.
The elite fantasy ceiling simply hasn’t shown up often enough to justify paying first-round prices.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Deserves More Patience
Unlike Guerrero, the panel didn’t believe Fernando Tatis Jr. was a mistake in process.
Instead, they viewed his disappointing start as difficult to predict.
Chris Towers pointed out that Tatis has looked much more like himself since making adjustments to his batting stance late in May. While the home run totals haven’t completely rebounded, his batting average, stolen bases, and extra-base production have begun trending in the right direction.
The takeaway wasn’t that fantasy managers missed obvious warning signs.
It was that sometimes even elite players experience stretches that are nearly impossible to forecast.
Gunnar Henderson May Have Been Overvalued After One Historic Stretch
The conversation around Gunnar Henderson centered on expectations.
Both analysts questioned whether fantasy managers allowed one dominant stretch during the first half of a previous season to redefine his overall profile.
Henderson remains an excellent fantasy player.
The concern is whether he was ever truly the elite power bat many managers drafted him to be.
Chris Towers suggested Henderson may ultimately profile more as a top-20 hitter than a perennial top-five fantasy asset. Joey P echoed that sentiment, pointing to declining quality-of-contact metrics and a slight change in offensive approach compared to earlier seasons.
That doesn’t make Henderson a disappointment.
It simply means fantasy managers may have drafted him closer to his absolute ceiling than his most likely outcome.
Kyle Tucker Was Nearly Impossible to Predict
If there was one player both analysts struggled to explain, it was Kyle Tucker.
Unlike Guerrero or Henderson, they couldn’t identify an obvious flaw in the preseason evaluation.
Tucker had consistently produced across every fantasy category while entering an ideal offensive environment.
Instead, the discussion centered on how dramatically his underlying production has declined despite remaining in a favorable lineup.
Joey P acknowledged that Tucker became one of his biggest draft regrets, while Chris Towers maintained optimism that his long-term talent should eventually win out.
Sometimes the process is sound.
The results simply don’t follow.
Don’t Automatically Fade Popular Players
One of the most valuable parts of the discussion came when the conversation shifted away from disappointments and toward players many analysts avoided entering the season.
The biggest example was Yordan Alvarez.
Chris Towers admitted he aggressively targeted Alvarez because his evaluation was simple.
If he stayed healthy, everything else would likely take care of itself.
The discussion emphasized that elite hitters with only one major variable, health, can sometimes be worth the gamble, particularly in leagues with injured list spots where replacement-level production is readily available.
The panel also reflected on fading young breakout candidates like Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood.
Both analysts acknowledged they placed too much weight on disappointing second-half performances from the previous season while failing to account for natural development from young players still growing into their talent.
That became one of the biggest lessons of the entire episode.
Don’t assume a 23-year-old player has already reached his ceiling.
Be Careful Paying for Spring Training Hype
The discussion eventually turned toward pitching, where another common mistake emerged.
Fantasy managers often fall in love with rising spring-training arms.
Players like Kyle Bradish, Eury Perez, and Emmet Sheehan generated significant helium during draft season, but the panel questioned whether those rising prices were supported by meaningful new information.
Chris Towers argued that fantasy managers should always ask one question:
Why is this player’s price rising?
If the answer is simply that everyone else has started drafting him earlier, that’s not enough.
Spring training hype should be backed by tangible reasons, not simply momentum.
That same philosophy applies across every position.
Process Matters More Than Results
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the conversation was that fantasy managers shouldn’t obsess over individual misses.
Instead, they should evaluate the reasoning behind those decisions.
Sometimes the process is flawed.
Other times the process is correct and baseball simply refuses to cooperate.
Understanding the difference is what separates better fantasy players from everyone else.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may have been drafted too aggressively based on his highest-end outcomes rather than his most likely production.
- Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s slow start was viewed more as bad luck than poor preseason evaluation.
- Gunnar Henderson‘s draft cost may have reflected one exceptional stretch rather than his overall offensive profile.
- Kyle Tucker remains one of the toughest disappointments to explain because the preseason process still appeared sound.
- Elite talents like Yordan Alvarez become much easier to draft when health is the only major variable.
- Don’t overreact to disappointing second-half performances from young players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood.
- Player development doesn’t stop at age 23 or 24, and draft evaluations should leave room for growth.
- Be skeptical of spring-training ADP risers unless there’s concrete evidence supporting the price increase.
- Reviewing your draft process is often more valuable than dwelling on the results.
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