While the 2026 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to start preparing for redraft leagues. Many factors go into fantasy players winning their redraft league every year. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
- Fantasy Football Research & Advice
- Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFFC
Let’s look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.
Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 70.97 | QB6
Williams finished last year as the QB5, averaging 1.6 passing touchdowns and 18.7 fantasy points per game. However, he was the QB7 on a points-per-game basis, averaging less than Matthew Stafford (20.6) and Brock Purdy (19.7). Yet, fantasy players can draft both NFC West quarterbacks two rounds later than Williams. While fantasy players shouldn’t have an issue with drafting the former USC star, he is overpriced at his current ADP. Furthermore, Jayden Daniels’ ADP is only three picks higher than Williams’, even though he offers significantly more fantasy upside.
Saquon Barkley (PHI) – ADP 18.28 | RB10
Many had concerns about Barkley last year after the superstar had 482 touches in 2024, including the playoffs. The former Penn State star averaged 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game last season, his lowest mark since 2021. Furthermore, he averaged 4.1 yards per rushing attempt and had 13 breakaway runs last year. By comparison, Barkley averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and had 25 breakaway runs during his 2024 fantasy MVP season. After finishing last year as the RB14, fantasy players should avoid drafting Barkley as a top-10 running back.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – ADP 47.57 | RB20
While fantasy players had high hopes for Henderson as a rookie, he was unstartable for most of the year, finishing as the RB21. His 12.1 PPR fantasy points per game average was lower than Kenneth Gainwell‘s (13) and Rhamondre Stevenson‘s (12.8). More importantly, Henderson averaged 11.3 touches and 9.5 fantasy points per game in the regular season with Stevenson healthy. By comparison, he averaged 19 touches and 24.3 fantasy points per game without the veteran playing. Neither Patriots running back should get drafted as more than a flex option.
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) – ADP 35.68 | WR14
The Panthers’ passing attack lacks significant upside with Bryce Young under center. Last season, McMillan finished as the WR22 in PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis (12.4), posting a lower average than DK Metcalf (12.5). Yet, according to Fantasy Points Data, he had the 11th-highest receiving yards market share (30.7%) among players with at least 30 targets last year. While I like McMillan, he is overvalued as the WR14 in ADP. I would rather draft DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, and Emeka Egbuka despite their later ADP than McMillan.
Jameson Williams (DET) – ADP 51.96 | WR24
Last season, Williams quietly finished as the WR12, showing what a down year it was at the wide receiver position. His 12.9 PPR fantasy points per game average ranked 19th on a points-per-game basis, ranking behind Wan’Dale Robinson (13.6) and Christian Watson (13.2). Furthermore, Williams was hard to trust every week, scoring 6.6 or fewer fantasy points in 41.2% of the games, including zero twice. Fantasy players should avoid drafting the former Alabama star at his current fifth-round and WR24 ADP and target a pass catcher with less volatility.
Jake Ferguson (DAL) – ADP 117.43 | TE9
Unfortunately, Ferguson’s fantasy upside is limited because of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Last year, he finished as the TE10 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 11.1 PPR fantasy points per contest. However, the veteran was significantly better when Lamb left the game early or was sidelined with an injury. Ferguson averaged 8.3 targets, a touchdown, and 18.6 fantasy points per game in those four contests during the fantasy season. By comparison, he averaged 5.6 targets, 0.3 touchdowns, and 9.4 fantasy points in the 12 contests with Lamb playing healthy.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
