Josh Shepardson | Fri, Jul 10th 2026, 7:02am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Friday (7/10)

Friday’s MLB DFS main slate features 12 games on DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Underdog pick’em choices are also from those 12 games.

Friday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/10)

Parker Messick (SP – CLE) at Miami Marlins

Parker Messick is having a sensational sophomore campaign. According to FanGraphs, the lefty has recorded the following stats in 18 starts spanning 106 innings this season:

7 wins
6 quality starts
2.80 ERA
3.22 xERA
3.45 xFIP
3.66 SIERA
1.08 WHIP
7.6% walk rate
25.8% strikeout rate
11.3% SwStr%
26.7% CSW%
96 stuff+
106 location+
104 pitching+

Messick’s matchup is mixed. The Marlins are tied for 13th in wRC+ (99) with a 23.6% strikeout rate versus lefties and 18th in wRC+ (100) with a 21.1% strikeout rate at home in 2026. However, Miami is second in wRC+ (129) with a 19.4% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days.

Nevertheless, the salary discount for using Messick instead of Shohei Ohtani, Chris Sale, Hunter Brown or Nolan McLean at DraftKings is extremely appealing. The betting info is also rock-solid, with the Guardians listed at -105 on the Moneyline, but the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.

Sean Burke (SP – CWS) vs. Athletics

Sean Burke has lately pitched like a player in a video game with their attributes cranked up. In his previous five appearances (four starts), the righty has ripped off the following numbers:

2 wins
2 quality starts
2.79 ERA
3.56 xERA
3.20 xFIP
3.03 SIERA
1.31 WHIP
8.3% walk rate
32.5% strikeout rate
13.6% SwStr%
32.5% CSW%
99 stuff+
102 location+
102 pitching+

Burke has a decent matchup for maintaining his momentum. The Athletics are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus righties and are tied for 26th in wRC+ (84) with a 24.6% strikeout rate on the road this year.

The A’s are also tied for 15th in wRC+ (105) with a 23.4% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The betting info is also sweet, with the White Sox as -170 favorites and a nine-run total.

Robbie Ray (SP – SFG) vs. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are a dream matchup for southpaws, ranking dead last in wRC+ (81) with a 26.2% strikeout rate versus them this season. Colorado is tied for 14th in wRC+ (98) with a 24% strikeout rate on the road, though, and they’re sixth in wRC+ (121) with a 20.7% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. They’re not a risk-free matchup.

Furthermore, Robbie Ray isn’t a risk-free pitcher, either. The lefty has a 3.25 ERA in 146.2 innings at home since last season, but it’s unsupported by his 4.54 xFIP. Ray’s 1.20 WHIP and 22.4% strikeout rate at home since 2025 are also acceptable but not elite, and his 10.3% walk rate warrants pause.

Still, the Giants are -160 favorites, the game’s total is 8.5 runs and Ray’s salary is tantalizing for an SP2 option in GPPs on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Home (Rate Field )
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CWS -170

RosterResource projects Aaron Civale to get the ball as the bulk reliever after Jacob Lopez opens the contest. The veteran righty has been beaten like a drum to the tune of a 5.10 ERA, 5.19 xERA, 5.13 xFIP and 5.00 SIERA in 15 starts.

When a pitcher’s ERA and all of his ERA estimators are 5.00 or higher, they’re an outstanding target to stack against. Moreover, Civale has ceded a .336 wOBA to 135 righties and an eye-popping .417 wOBA to 192 lefties this season.

Lopez is also a plus-matchup for the White Sox. He has a 7.04 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 5.92 xFIP and 5.68 SIERA in 13 appearances (10 starts). The lefty has also surrendered a .347 wOBA to 76 left-handed batters and a .404 wOBA to 181 right-handed batters this season.

Home (Oracle Park)
Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/SF -160

Tanner Gordon toeing the slab is a welcome sight for MLB hitters. He has a 6.95 ERA, 4.88 xERA, 4.20 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA in 11 appearances (four starts), totaling 45.1 innings in 2026. Furthermore, Gordon owns a 7.03 ERA, 5.56 xERA, 4.33 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA in 155 career innings, dating back to 2024.

Thus, any thoughts that his ERA is extremely unlucky are harder to buy when considering the gap between his career ERA and his ERA estimators. Gordon has coughed up a .366 wOBA to 97 right-handed batters and a .454 wOBA to 108 left-handed batters, meaning all of San Francisco’s hitters are in the stacking mix.

Core Studs

The White Sox are expected to activate Munetaka Murakami from the injured list (IL) tonight. He has smashed 20 homers with a .378 on-base percentage (OBP), .320 ISO, .397 wOBA, .379 xwOBA and 156 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances in his first rookie season.
Yordan Alvarez has blasted 29 bombs with 62 runs, 67 RBI, one stolen base, a .416 OBP, .304 ISO, .429 wOBA, .469 xwOBA and 180 wRC+ in 406 plate appearances.
Colson Montgomery has drilled 23 dingers with 42 runs, 53 RBI, one stolen base, a .304 OBP, .258 ISO, .337 wOBA and 115 wRC+ in 368 plate appearances in 2026.

Value Plays/Punts

Kyle Teel has had a sluggish 2026 after opening the season on the IL and debuting on June 22nd. Still, he has hit 10 homers with 43 runs, 46 RBI, three stolen bases, a .359 OBP, .338 wOBA, .332 xwOBA and 117 wRC+ in 349 career plate appearances since reaching the Majors in 2025.
In 31 plate appearances from July 1st through July 8th, Jake Cronenworth rattled off two homers, three runs, six RBI, a .355 OBP, .233 ISO, .396 wOBA and 155 wRC+, albeit with a .308 xwOBA. Sadly, he didn’t reach base last night. Having said that, Cronenworth has hit 27 homers with a .344 OBP, .161 ISO, .330 wOBA and 115 wRC+ in 958 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since 2024.
Heliot Ramos has hit eight homers with 30 runs, 28 RBI, a .314 OBP, .205 ISO, .340 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 223 plate appearances this season.

Friday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Sean Burke (SP, RP – CWS): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Sean Burke is on a strikeout heater. He’s exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in eight straight appearances (six starts). In that stretch, Burke has logged a 2.96 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 3.28 SIERA, 1.23 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.

Parker Messick (SP – CLE): 4.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Parker Messick failed to clear 4.5 strikeouts in his last start, snapping a streak of three straight starts with over 4.5 strikeouts. The sophomore southpaw has surpassed 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 18 starts this season.

Moreover, Messick has a 27.3% strikeout rate in 47.2 innings on the road this season and a 25.6% strikeout rate in 69.1 career road innings.

Jonathan Aranda (1B – TB): 1.5 Total Bases — Higher

Jonathan Aranda is having a stellar season at the dish. He’s amassed 94 hits (67 singles, 14 doubles, 13 homers), a .287 batting average, .448 slugging rate and .162 ISO in 393 plate appearances in 2026.

Conversely, Luis Castillo has allowed 26 singles, 12 doubles, two triples, seven homers, a .255 batting average and a .457 slugging rate to 210 left-handed batters in 2026.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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