Josh Shepardson | Mon, Jul 20th 2026, 6:16am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Monday (7/20)

Monday’s MLB DFS main slate features 14 games, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The pick’em selections are also from those 14 games.

Monday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Monday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/20)

Jacob Misiorowski (SP – MIL) vs. New York Mets

Jacob Misiorowski has been arguably the best pitcher in the Majors this season. According to FanGraphs, the flame-throwing righty has the following rankings among 58 qualified pitchers in 2026:

First in ERA (1.62)
First in xERA (2.06)
First in xFIP (2.10)
First in SIERA (2.20)
First in WHIP (0.76)
First in strikeout rate (39.6%)
Tied for third in wins (10)
Tied for sixth in quality starts (12)
Tied for 23rd in innings pitched (111)
First in swinging-strike rate (17.2%)
First in called-plus-swinging-strike rate (34.8%)
First in stuff+ (127)
Tied for 41st in location+ (101)
First in pitching+ (128)

Misiorowski has a tasty matchup and betting info tonight. The Mets are tied for 26th in wRC+ (91) with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus righties and 28th in wRC+ (83) with a 22.5% strikeout rate on the road in 2026.

New York is also tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 21.9% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Brewers are -190 favorites, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.

Payton Tolle (SP – BOS) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Payton Tolle is spinning it this year after getting a cup of coffee in the Majors last season. In 15 starts spanning 84 innings this season, the 23-year-old lefty has recorded the following numbers:

5 wins
8 quality starts
3.11 ERA
3.02 xERA
4.02 xFIP
3.82 SIERA
1.07 WHIP
7.3% walk rate
25.5% strikeout rate
12.6% SwStr%
26.7% CSW%
114 stuff+
98 location+
110 pitching+

Tolle has a favorable matchup and rock-solid betting info tonight. The Orioles are tied for 18th in wRC+ (94) with a 25.5% strikeout rate versus lefties and are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (90) with a 26.4% strikeout rate on the road this year.

Baltimore is also tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 25.9% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Red Sox are -140 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.

Ryan Weathers (SP – NYY) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Weathers has an interesting matchup tonight. On the negative side for the lefty, the Pirates are first in wRC+ (128) with a 24.9% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. However, Pittsburgh is 17th in wRC+ (95) with a 25.6% strikeout rate versus lefties and is tied for 11th in wRC+ (100) with a 25.5% strikeout rate on the road this season.

Funny enough, Weathers’ stats are also mixed. In 18 starts spanning 97.2 innings, the lefty has a 4.15 ERA, 4.40 xERA and 1.24 WHIP this season, which are underwhelming numbers. Having said that, Weathers’ 3.28 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, 6.6% walk rate and 26.9% strikeout rate are more impressive marks. Finally, the Yankees are -120 favorites, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Home (Truist Park )
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ATL -150

JP Sears, after getting rocked in Triple-A, hasn’t found his footing in the Majors, as evidenced by his 5.03 ERA, 5.39 xERA, 4.47 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA in four starts for the Padres.

Sears has held 18 left-handed batters to a .240 wOBA this year. However, he surrendered a .354 wOBA to 96 lefties last season. In addition, 68 righties have lit Sears up for a .359 wOBA in 2026 after 487 righties rattled off a .351 wOBA against him in 2025.

Road (Kauffman Stadium)
Game Total/Moneyline: 10.5 Runs/SF -105

The Giants will get a breather from their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. According to Baseball Savant’s 2026 park factors, renovated Kauffman Stadium has an 114 park factor for runs and a 98 park factor for homers.

Michael Wacha is also a ho-hum matchup, with a 3.77 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 4.30 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA in 19 starts this season. The 35-year-old righty has also allowed a .301 wOBA to 282 lefties and a .325 wOBA to 205 righties, putting all of San Francisco’s hitters in play as stacking options.

Core Studs

Kyle Schwarber has crushed 33 home runs with 59 runs, 61 RBI, two stolen bases, a .368 on-base percentage (OBP), .308 ISO, .395 wOBA and 150 wRC+ in 427 plate appearances this season.
Ozzie Albies has hit 14 homers with a .309 OBP, .170 ISO, .327 wOBA and 107 wRC+ in 472 plate appearances against lefties since 2024.
Bryce Eldridge has launched 10 long balls with 30 runs, 23 RBI, one stolen base, a .368 OBP, .215 ISO, .372 wOBA and 138 wRC+ in 231 plate appearances this year.

Value Plays/Punts

Kyle Karros has one homer with a .361 OBP, .179 ISO, .366 wOBA and 106 wRC+ in 61 career plate appearances against lefties at home.
Josh Lowe has belted three bombs with nine runs, eight RBI, two stolen bases, a .296 OBP, .216 ISO, .331 wOBA, .345 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 110 wRC+ in 54 plate appearances from June 24th through July 17th. He reached base once in three plate appearances on Sunday via a walk.
Joey Bart has drilled nine dingers with a .365 OBP, .182 ISO, .360 wOBA and 129 wRC+ in 208 plate appearances against lefties since 2024.

Monday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU): 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Yordan Alvarez is having a massive season at the dish. In 434 plate appearances, Alvarez has recorded 115 hits, including 31 homers, with 65 runs, 73 RBI, a .319 batting average, .429 OBP, .314 ISO, .440 wOBA and 187 wRC+.

Matt Olson (1B – ATL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Matt Olson has amassed 103 hits, including 26 home runs, with 67 runs, 59 RBI, a .269 batting average, .343 OBP, .269 ISO, .374 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in 431 plate appearances this year.

Moreover, Olson has hit 25 homers with a .271 batting average, .329 OBP, .215 ISO, .349 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 589 plate appearances against southpaws since 2024.

Freddy Peralta (SP – NYM): 5.5 Strikeouts — Lower

Freddy Peralta has struck out precisely six batters in back-to-back turns. However, he has failed to clear his strikeout line in his five previous starts and in 10 of his 20 starts 0verall.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are ninth in strikeout rate (21.2%) versus righties and tied for 14th in strikeout rate (21.3%) at home this season. Finally, Milwaukee is tied for 13th in strikeout rate (21.9%) in the previous 30 days.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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