We ranked every quarterback by projected season-long fantasy football points to build a “projection rank,” then compared that to each back’s actual expert consensus rank (ECR). These are the quarterbacks where the raw, points-based projection is significantly lower on the player than our experts’ rank.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterbacks Projections Hate
These are not necessarily bad quarterbacks. In most cases they are talented passers whose consensus ranking leans on reputation, draft capital, or a hoped-for leap that the projections simply do not buy.
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
Williams is the headliner on this side. The consensus ranks him QB7, but the projections see the QB12, a five-spot gap that is the widest among startable quarterbacks. The optimism is understandable: Williams took a real step forward in 2025 under new head coach and playcaller Ben Johnson, finishing QB6 in fantasy scoring, setting a franchise passing-yardage record, and slashing his sack rate from 10.8 percent to 4.1 percent. The projections are skeptical the leap fully holds. He completed just 58.1 percent of his throws, remains a notoriously slow starter who can sleepwalk through first halves, and does not run enough to prop up his floor when the passing is inefficient. At a QB7 price, you are paying for the ceiling of the 2025 finish. The projections think you will get something closer to a mid-pack QB1.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Herbert lands at QB8 in consensus but QB13 in the projections, another five-spot gap. The bull case is a bounce-back under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, whose scheme once helped Tua Tagovailoa lead the league in passing yardage, paired with improved pass-catching help. The projections are not convinced. Over Herbert’s last three seasons his passing yardage and touchdown rate have declined meaningfully from his first three, and while the causes have varied, the downturn has been real and persistent. There is genuine upside if the environment finally cooperates, but the projections are pricing the recent track record rather than the best-case scenario, and they want a discount Herbert’s QB8 cost does not offer.
Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
Ward sits at QB25 in consensus but QB28 by projection, at just 232 points. The former number one overall pick struggled for most of his rookie year, averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt over his first 12 starts before flashing late with three straight two-touchdown games. The projections acknowledge the late improvement but weight the full body of work, and a still-thin supporting cast, more heavily. He is a name to monitor for a second-year jump, but the numbers say his current cost already bakes in optimism.
Kyler Murray (QB – MIN)
Murray comes in at QB17 in consensus and QB19 by projection. The modest gap reflects real uncertainty rather than a talent knock. He is on a new team, is coming off a foot injury that ended his 2025 season after five games, and could face at least nominal competition for the job. His per-game fantasy finishes have also grown erratic in recent years. The situation is genuinely good, with Kevin O’Connell calling plays and a strong receiving group, which is why this is a mild fade rather than a hard one. But the projections want to see him healthy and settled before ranking him as a clear starter.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Love is the most interesting case, because the projections’ skepticism is almost philosophical. He ranks QB20 in consensus and QB22 by projection, and the note attached to him captures why: he may simply be a better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback. In 2025 he ranked near the top of the league in expected points added per dropback, DVOA, QBR, and passer rating, yet finished just QB19 in fantasy points per game. The culprit is environment. Green Bay has been run-heavy for two straight seasons, and Love offers almost no rushing production of his own. Efficiency wins real games. Volume wins fantasy ones, and the projections do not see the volume.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Burrow belongs here only in the mildest sense, and the nuance is the point. He ranks QB4 in consensus and QB6 by projection, the smallest gap on this list, and the projections still forecast an elite passing line headlined by more than 33 touchdown passes. This is not a fade. It is a window into how the projections weight the position: because Burrow adds almost nothing on the ground, a couple of dual-threat quarterbacks edge past him even with the best pure-passing profile in the sample. If you draft Burrow, you are getting a genuinely elite passer. Just know that in fantasy terms, the rushing-heavy tier above him is where the model finds its safest points.
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Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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