We ranked every quarterback by projected season-long fantasy football points to build a “projection rank,” then compared that to each back’s actual expert consensus rank (ECR). These are the quarterbacks where the raw, points-based projection is significantly higher on the player than our experts’ rank.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterbacks Projections Love
The pattern that emerges is consistent: the projections reward production, and above all they reward rushing. The quarterbacks below are the ones the model believes you can draft at a discount.
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
Dart is the headliner. The consensus ranks him as the QB12, but the projections peg him as a top-seven fantasy quarterback, with 310 projected points (18.3 per game). The gap is almost entirely about his legs. The model forecasts roughly 550 rushing yards and six to seven rushing touchdowns, which accounts for about 30 percent of his projected fantasy scoring. That is elite dual-threat volume, and it is the single most stable source of fantasy points at the position. Dart earned the projection as a rookie, acquitting himself well across 12 starts with a skeleton-crew receiving group after Malik Nabers went down, completing 63.7 percent of his throws while adding 487 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. With Nabers healthy and back in the fold, the supporting cast should be considerably better in 2026. The one caution flag is durability, since Dart was a reckless runner at times last year and absorbed some hard hits. But as a bet on rushing floor at a QB2 price, the projections love him.
Brock Purdy (QB – SF)
Purdy sits at QB11 in consensus but projects as the QB8, at 307 points. The case is simple and durable: Purdy has finished inside QB1 range in fantasy points per game in each of his three full seasons as a starter. A nagging turf toe injury limited him to nine games in 2025, which has dampened enthusiasm, but the projections look past the lost time to the per-game production underneath it. San Francisco’s pass-catching corps will look different, with Mike Evans expected to step in as the new number one receiver, and there is real uncertainty around George Kittle‘s health to open the season. Even so, the model treats Purdy as a set-and-forget mid-range QB1 available at a streaming price.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB – KC)
This is the buy-low the projections are quietly making. Mahomes has slid to QB14 in consensus as his fantasy appeal has cooled and as he rehabs a serious knee injury suffered in December. The projections still see a low-end QB1, ranking him QB11 at 304 points. The bet here is on the floor of an all-time talent whose rushing helped him open 2025 as the QB1 through eight weeks at 25 points per game. The knee introduces genuine mobility risk, and that is the reason for the discount, but if Mahomes is close to himself, his current draft cost will look like a bargain. When the market fades a future Hall of Famer and the projections do not, that disagreement is worth acting on.
Daniel Jones (QB – IND)
Jones is the deep-value name the numbers like, ranked QB24 in consensus but QB20 by projection at 274 points. It is easy to forget that through the first 10 weeks of 2025 Jones looked like an MVP candidate, guiding the Colts to an 8-2 start while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and finishing as QB5 in fantasy over that stretch, with rushing production adding to his passing. A fractured fibula and a later Achilles tear ended the run, but Jones says he expects to be fully ready for Week 1. His mobility is central to his fantasy value, so his health bears watching, but the projections are betting the pre-injury version returns. As a last-round dart or a streaming option, he offers upside the consensus is not pricing in.
Tyler Shough (QB – NO)
Shough draws a modest but real vote of confidence, ranked QB19 in consensus and QB17 by projection at 287 points. The rookie was a pleasant surprise for New Orleans down the stretch, taking over in Week 9 and finishing as QB12 in fantasy points per game the rest of the way, clearing 17 points in each of his final six starts. He enters 2026 as the undisputed starter with a full offseason to build on that momentum. The projections see a usable streamer with a stable floor.
Geno Smith (QB – NYJ)
Smith is the only quarterback here flagged by two independent signals at once: the projections rank him slightly ahead of consensus (QB26 versus QB28), and his ECR-versus-ADP gap is plus-nine, meaning the draft market is fading him even faster than the rankers. Smith is coming off a poor, interception-prone season, so the skepticism is understandable, but he is only two years removed from a 4,320-yard campaign and steps into a Jets offense with a solid line and an interesting young receiving group. He is unlikely to hold weekly fantasy relevance, but as the last quarterback off the board in a stream-friendly build or third QB in a superflex league, he offers more than his cost.
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Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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