RB Over/Under Projections (2026 NFL Season)

We will discuss five running back over/under plays that stand out the most ahead of the 2026 NFL season. The assumption we will make is that all the running backs we analyze will miss at least two games, as expecting (or needing) a player to be healthy for a full 17 games is often wishful thinking. All of the players selected and discussed have proven that they can hit their total in 15 games or less. Let’s dig in.

Derrick Henry Over 999.5 rushing yards (-233)

BettingPros Projection: 1,556.7 rushing yards

Averaged 93.82 rushing yards per game last season; at that clip, only 11 games needed to hit 1k
Averaged 113.00 rushing yards per game in 2024; at that clip, only nine games needed to hit 1k
Averaged 96.12 rushing yards per game in 2022; at that clip, only 11 games needed to hit 1k

Derrick Henry is another ageless wonder like Frank Gore, but is actually still playing at an elite level in his 30s. In fact, over the last two seasons, Henry leads the NFL in combined rushing yards by over 300 yards over Saquon Barkley and 500 yards over Jonathan Taylor. Henry has crossed the 1,000 yard barrier in seven of his last eight seasons and has played all 17 games in three straight seasons. He is the undisputed workhorse in Baltimore and should leave the field less on third downs and late in games under Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle.

Bijan Robinson Over 999.5 rushing yards (-186)

BettingPros Projection: 1,427.4 rushing yards

Averaged 86.94 rushing yards per game last season; at that clip, only 12 games needed to hit 1k

Arguably the most exciting running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson will finally get the workhorse treatment this year. Robinson saw 287 carries last season with Tyler Allgeier still on the roster and should push for a total closer to the 325 mark this season. He will push to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards, and some have even suggested that he may threaten the all-time scrimmage yard record (2,509). Robinson should, by all accounts, hit his total well before his 15th game. And while we do not expect him to contend for the rushing title on a team that will mire him with negative gamescripts, he should be among the league leaders in yards per carry.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 999.5 rushing yards (-213)

BettingPros Projection: 1,382.7 rushing yards

Averaged 71.94 rushing yards per game last season; at that clip, only 14 games needed to hit 1k

Gibbs surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons despite the presence of an effective David Montgomery. With Montgomery now in Houston and Detroit failing to adequately address the depth behind him in settling on Isiah Pacheco, Gibbs is slated to be a true workhorse for the first time in his career. Gibbs has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in his time in the NFL and should emerge as a legitimate rushing title threat this season.

Jonathan Taylor Over 999.5 rushing yards (-245)

BettingPros Projection: 1,508.1 rushing yards

Averaged 93.24 rushing yards per game last season; at that clip, only 11 games needed to hit 1k
Averaged 102.21 rushing yards per game in 2024; at that clip, only 10 games needed to hit 1k

Jonathan Taylor is another near-lock to hit his rushing total this season. He led the NFL in carries last season, and with Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis could become even more reliant on the run. As noted above, Taylor, who played all 17 games last season, would need less than 12 games at his average rushing yards per game to hit 1000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons. While his 93.24 rushing yards per game last year is impressive, that number spiked to 106.83 rushing yards in games that Daniel Jones finished under center. Taylor has guaranteed volume and only needs to play at least 15 games to go well past the 1k mark.

Chase Brown Over 745.5 rushing yards (-170)

BettingPros Projection: 1,039.8 rushing yards

Averaged 59.94 rushing yards per game last season; at that clip, only 13 games needed to hit 746 rushing yards
Averaged 61.88 rushing yards per game in 2024; at that clip, only 13 games needed to hit 746 rushing yards

Chase Brown, at just 745.5 rushing yards, with juice so low compared to some of the others on this list, does give some reason for pause. That said, Brown is not as much of a household name, and thus the more casual bettors are likely ignoring his total altogether, even if it is laden with value. Brown is a workhorse for Cincinnati and will hit this total if he can manage to play at least 15 games. Chase Brown does have his faults as a running back, but he’s guaranteed volume and has enough explosion to hit the home run on almost any play. There would be value on Chase Brown even at a number like 849.5.