Derek Brown
FantasyPros
Twitter: @dbro_ffb
Website: https://www.fantasypros.com/
Player Note on Jayden Daniels (QB - WAS)
Jayden Daniels will be back this week. He is the QB10 in fantasy points per game this season, averaging nine rushing attempts and 43.7 rushing yards per game with two rushing scores in his six games played. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, 30th in catchable target rate, and 22nd in hero throw rate. Daniels should have success this week. Since Week 9, Minnesota's pass defense has improved, allowing the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-lowest passer rating, but the coverage matchup works in Daniels' favor. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high this season, Daniels ranks first in passer rating, seventh in yards per attempt, and first in CPOE. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate. Against the blitz, Daniels has ranked 16th in passer rating and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Daniels should have a strong return to the lineup.
Player Note on Aaron Jones Sr. (RB - MIN)
Aaron Jones left last week's game with a shoulder injury. He practiced on a limited basis all week and doesn't carry an injury designation into this week. In Weeks 10-12, Jones averaged 14.3 touches and 68.3 total yards per game with a 68.3% snap rate as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. Jones is a volume play with a nice matchup. Jones' per-touch numbers have been horrible this season, with a 3% explosive run rate, a 4% missed tackle rate, and 1.78 yards after contact per attempt. Washington's run defense has been porous, so Jones should be able to take advantage this week. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on Parker Washington (WR - JAC)
Parker Washington sustained a hip injury last week. He opened this week with a DNP. Washington managed limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable for Week 14. Since Week 7, Washington has been the WR30 in fantasy points per game with a 19% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 22.1% first-read share. In those six games, he has had six red zone targets and six deep targets. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%). Since Week 7, against single high, Washington has had a 19.4% target share with 2.12 yards per route run and a 21.9% first-read share. Washington could pay off as a flex play this week, but he has a tough matchup incoming. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target and the third-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Player Note on Jakobi Meyers (WR - JAC)
Last week, Meyers led the team with a 22.2% target share, 90 receiving yards, 3.10 yards per route run, and a 35.3% first-read share. He had one red zone target and one deep target as the WR11 for the week. Since Week 11, he has had a 22.8% first-read share, 68 receiving yards per game, 2.65 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had four red zone targets and one deep target. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%). Since Week 11, against single high, Meyers has had a 23.1% target share, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. Meyers should lead the Jaguars' passing attack this week. Indy has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the 13th-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Player Note on Sam Darnold (QB - SEA)
Since Week 7, Sam Darnold has fallen off some. He has been a QB1 twice in weekly scoring but QB24 or lower in four other games. Since Week 7, among 42 qualifying passers, he has ranked third in yards per attempt, fourth in hero throw rate, and third in highly accurate throw rate, but he has also been 29th in catchable target rate and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. This could be the Darnold bounce-back spot. The Falcons' pass defense has had serious issues in recent weeks. Since Week 9, they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback. Darnold's success against the blitz will also be pivotal this week. Atlanta has the second-highest blitz rate. I do have faith that Darnold can destroy it. Among 31 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt and tenth in adjusted completion rate against the blitz.
Player Note on Ashton Jeanty (RB - LV)
Ashton Jeanty is the RB11 in fantasy points per game with 18.7 touches and 73.8 total yards per game. His offensive line has crushed his rushing output, but his passing game usage has been saving him weekly. Jeanty has eight targets in each of his last three games. Since Week 9, he has had an 18.3% target share with 33 receiving yards per game, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 12.8% first-read share. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty will have to lean on volume and his receiving prowess again this week. Since Week 9, Denver has remained a nasty run defense, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Bucky Irving (RB - TB)
Last week, Bucky Irving returned and immediately cemented himself as the clear lead back again. He played 54.4% of the snaps with a 24.2% route share, 17 of 21 running back carries, and all three of the team's red zone rushing attempts. Irving finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB15 for the week. I expect his snap count to rise further this week with some more passing game involvement. Last week, Irving didn't break any explosive runs and had only 1.59 yards after contact per attempt, but he did have a 41% missed tackle rate (WOW!), so I expect his efficiency numbers to climb moving forward. Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on Oronde Gadsden II (TE - LAC)
Since Week 6, Gadsden has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 17.2% target share, 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had ten red zone targets and six deep targets. Since Week 7, Philly has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (56.3%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden has had an 18.6% target share with 2.37 yards per route run and a 20.6% first-read share. He'll face an uphill climb this week against a defense that has shut down tight ends. Philly has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Player Note on Mason Taylor (TE - NYJ)
Mason Taylor has seen his role in the passing game dwindle in recent weeks. He hasn't managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 8. That was also the last game that he had a red zone target. Mason Taylor is the TE31 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season. Since Week 11, he has had a 14.8% target share with 24 receiving yards per game, 1.06 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share. Taylor is on the streaming radar this week, though. The matchup is wonderful. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Player Note on Colston Loveland (TE - CHI)
Since Week 10, Loveland has had one TE1 weekly finish (TE3). During his last four games, Loveland has had a 54.8% route share with a 13.7% target share, 43 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Green Bay has held tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game. Loveland is a streaming option best left on the bench this week.
Player Note on Jayden Daniels (QB - WAS)
Jayden Daniels will be back this week. He is the QB10 in fantasy points per game this season, averaging nine rushing attempts and 43.7 rushing yards per game with two rushing scores in his six games played. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, 30th in catchable target rate, and 22nd in hero throw rate. Daniels should have success this week. Since Week 9, Minnesota's pass defense has improved, allowing the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-lowest passer rating, but the coverage matchup works in Daniels' favor. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against two high this season, Daniels ranks first in passer rating, seventh in yards per attempt, and first in CPOE. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate. Against the blitz, Daniels has ranked 16th in passer rating and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Daniels should have a strong return to the lineup.
Player Note on Aaron Jones Sr. (RB - MIN)
Aaron Jones left last week's game with a shoulder injury. He practiced on a limited basis all week and doesn't carry an injury designation into this week. In Weeks 10-12, Jones averaged 14.3 touches and 68.3 total yards per game with a 68.3% snap rate as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. Jones is a volume play with a nice matchup. Jones' per-touch numbers have been horrible this season, with a 3% explosive run rate, a 4% missed tackle rate, and 1.78 yards after contact per attempt. Washington's run defense has been porous, so Jones should be able to take advantage this week. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the second-most yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on Parker Washington (WR - JAC)
Parker Washington sustained a hip injury last week. He opened this week with a DNP. Washington managed limited practice sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable for Week 14. Since Week 7, Washington has been the WR30 in fantasy points per game with a 19% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 22.1% first-read share. In those six games, he has had six red zone targets and six deep targets. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%). Since Week 7, against single high, Washington has had a 19.4% target share with 2.12 yards per route run and a 21.9% first-read share. Washington could pay off as a flex play this week, but he has a tough matchup incoming. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target and the third-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Player Note on Jakobi Meyers (WR - JAC)
Last week, Meyers led the team with a 22.2% target share, 90 receiving yards, 3.10 yards per route run, and a 35.3% first-read share. He had one red zone target and one deep target as the WR11 for the week. Since Week 11, he has had a 22.8% first-read share, 68 receiving yards per game, 2.65 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had four red zone targets and one deep target. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%). Since Week 11, against single high, Meyers has had a 23.1% target share, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. Meyers should lead the Jaguars' passing attack this week. Indy has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while also giving up the 13th-most receiving yards per game to the position.
Player Note on Sam Darnold (QB - SEA)
Since Week 7, Sam Darnold has fallen off some. He has been a QB1 twice in weekly scoring but QB24 or lower in four other games. Since Week 7, among 42 qualifying passers, he has ranked third in yards per attempt, fourth in hero throw rate, and third in highly accurate throw rate, but he has also been 29th in catchable target rate and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. This could be the Darnold bounce-back spot. The Falcons' pass defense has had serious issues in recent weeks. Since Week 9, they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per attempt, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback. Darnold's success against the blitz will also be pivotal this week. Atlanta has the second-highest blitz rate. I do have faith that Darnold can destroy it. Among 31 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt and tenth in adjusted completion rate against the blitz.
Player Note on Ashton Jeanty (RB - LV)
Ashton Jeanty is the RB11 in fantasy points per game with 18.7 touches and 73.8 total yards per game. His offensive line has crushed his rushing output, but his passing game usage has been saving him weekly. Jeanty has eight targets in each of his last three games. Since Week 9, he has had an 18.3% target share with 33 receiving yards per game, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 12.8% first-read share. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty will have to lean on volume and his receiving prowess again this week. Since Week 9, Denver has remained a nasty run defense, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Player Note on Bucky Irving (RB - TB)
Last week, Bucky Irving returned and immediately cemented himself as the clear lead back again. He played 54.4% of the snaps with a 24.2% route share, 17 of 21 running back carries, and all three of the team's red zone rushing attempts. Irving finished with 19 touches and 81 total yards as the RB15 for the week. I expect his snap count to rise further this week with some more passing game involvement. Last week, Irving didn't break any explosive runs and had only 1.59 yards after contact per attempt, but he did have a 41% missed tackle rate (WOW!), so I expect his efficiency numbers to climb moving forward. Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Player Note on Oronde Gadsden II (TE - LAC)
Since Week 6, Gadsden has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 17.2% target share, 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had ten red zone targets and six deep targets. Since Week 7, Philly has utilized two high at the fourth-highest rate (56.3%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden has had an 18.6% target share with 2.37 yards per route run and a 20.6% first-read share. He'll face an uphill climb this week against a defense that has shut down tight ends. Philly has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Player Note on Mason Taylor (TE - NYJ)
Mason Taylor has seen his role in the passing game dwindle in recent weeks. He hasn't managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 8. That was also the last game that he had a red zone target. Mason Taylor is the TE31 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 outings this season. Since Week 11, he has had a 14.8% target share with 24 receiving yards per game, 1.06 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share. Taylor is on the streaming radar this week, though. The matchup is wonderful. The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Player Note on Colston Loveland (TE - CHI)
Since Week 10, Loveland has had one TE1 weekly finish (TE3). During his last four games, Loveland has had a 54.8% route share with a 13.7% target share, 43 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Green Bay has held tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game. Loveland is a streaming option best left on the bench this week.
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