Derek Brown

Jake Ferguson is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.5% target share, 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 19.7% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second in red zone targets among tight ends while also kicking in four deep targets. Ferguson should provide solid TE1 production this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Geno Smith will be back under center this week for Las Vegas. I don't want to put Geno Smith into fantasy lineups this week. Nope. No way. Not gonna happen. Not with his matchup this week. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Tee Higgins remains in the concussion protocol. He opened the week with limited practices but upgraded to a full session on Friday. I'll update his status on Saturday. 

The last time that we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field with the "new-look" version of Michael Wilson in the first three quarters (before he sustained a heel injury), he had a 25.9% target share, 2.88 yards per route run, and a 38.9% first-read share. Harrison Jr. may step right back in as Trey McBride's running mate and as the clear 1B in the passing attack. It's also possible that he takes a backseat to Wilson. Harrison Jr. stated that his heel is "good enough to go," and his head coach stated that he is "getting his wind back a little bit." It's possible that Harrison Jr. isn't an 80-90% route share player this week or 100% effective. He has a wide range of outcomes this week, but he's absolutely flex-worthy considering the matchup this week. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Ricky Pearsall aggravated his PCL injury last week. I doubt that he will suit up this week, but I'll update his status on Saturday. Persall has logged DNPs all week. 

Woody Marks is dealing with an ankle injury. He didn't practice until Friday this week and only logged a limited session. I worry that Marks could suit up this week, but he could see Nick Chubb and Jawhar Jordan eat into his workload some. Since Week 10, Marks has averaged 18 touches and 63.7 total yards. His main appeal for fantasy has been his volume, but that is a concern this week as Chubb practiced in full on Thursday and Friday (ribs), and Jordan played well in relief last week. If Marks gets his usual workload, he's an easy RB2 this week, but I don't know if that will happen. Since Week 11, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, and the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt.

With Rashee Rice out, I expect Xavier Worthy to step back into the "Rashee Rice role" this week, which had fantasy gamers so excited to draft him this summer. Last year, in Weeks 13-17, Worthy was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with a 21.3% target share, 57 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, a 24.8% first-read share, and a 25.6% designed target rate. If Worthy gets this role back this week, he should have a strong showing. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Audric Estime is an interesting flex play this week with Alvin Kamara out. Estime will likely split the backfield work with Evan Hull this week. Last week, in the second half, Estime played 52.8% of the snaps with a 46.4% route share, finishing with six touches and 50 total yards. Evan Hull had both of the red zone carries last week, but that could have been circumstantial with who was rotating in on that drive. I'll lean on Estime's snap and route share last week as the possible lead back for this offense in Week 16, but is there volatility and risk playing him this week? Absolutely. Estime could pay off nicely this week, though. Since Week 11, New York has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.