Derek Brown

Since Week 7, New England has utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (46.4%). Since Week 4 against man, Johnston has had a 10.5% target share, a 14.7% air-yard share, 1.21 YPRR, and a 15.1% first-read share. Johnston is droppable at this point. Week 13 Positional Value: Droppable

Sutton is the WR25 in fantasy, ranking sixth in red zone targets and third in total touchdowns among wide receivers. Sutton has scored in eight of 11 games this season, including five games in a row. That streak was snapped last week. Sutton has a 21.3% target share, a 39.0% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Since Week 7, Houston has utilized two-high at the fourth-highest rate (58.2%). Against two-high, Sutton has seen his target share decrease to 19.4% with a 39.8% air-yard share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 24.1% first read share. Sutton will run about 76% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (70.6% catch rate and 112.6 passer rating) and Steven Nelson (62.5% catch rate and 71.9 passer rating). Sutton should have a productive day against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3

St. Brown is the WR4 in fantasy with a 28.1% target share, a 33.0% air-yard share, 2.79 YPRR, and a 35.6% first-read share. St. Brown ranks tenth in red zone targets and has six looks inside the 20-yard line over his last three games. He has been the model of consistency, with at least 95 receiving yards in 70% of his games this season. St. Brown will run about 55% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). Since Week 7, the Saints have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1

Ballgame is the TE4 in fantasy, ranking 14th in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. After a small dry spell, he has rebounded with top-nine finishes in three of his last five games (TE4, TE9, TE3). Ballgame has five red zone targets over his last four games. Among 49 qualifying tight ends, he is eighth in target share (19.0%), ninth in YPRR (1.72), and ninth in first-read share (20.2%). The days of the Saints being a lockdown defense against tight ends are over. They have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to the position. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Tagovailoa is the QB12 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 weeks on his 2023 ledger. He ranks second in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in hero throw rate. Tagovailoa will carve up the Washington secondary in Week 13. The Commanders’ pass defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the most passing touchdowns by a wide margin. Since Week 7, they have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, and the next closest teams are Philly, Arizona, and Buffalo, with 12 passing scores each. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

McBride popped up with a groin issue this week, which is new. He missed practice on Wednesday. I’ll update his outlook on Friday. Even if McBride plays, this is a terrible matchup for him. Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and yards per reception to tight ends.

Despite the up-and-down nature of the Chiefs offense recently, Mahomes is the QB6 in fantasy points per game. There have been no issues with his level of play this season, as he ranks fourth in passing touchdowns, tenth in passer rating, and seventh in CPOE. Jared Goff made the Packers pass defense and pass rush look amazing on Thanksgiving, but if we’re being honest, they have been an average unit. Since Week 7, Green Bay has ranked 17th in CPOE and adjusted completion rate while allowing the 13th-highest passer rating. Over the same timeframe, they ranked 14th in pressure rate with the tenth-lowest time to pressure. Mahomes shouldn’t have many issues against this defense in Week 13. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Pollard is BACK BABY! Since Week 8, he has been among the league’s best tackle breakers, averaging 15.6 touches and 71.2 total yards. Since Week 8, among 32 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could post his best stat line of the season this week against a downtrodden Seattle run defense. Since Week 7, this run defense has been in shambles, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Dallas should lean on their ground game this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1