Derek Brown

Since Week 5, Alvin Kamara has had a 36.9% snap rate, 22.2% of the rushing work, and a 32.3% route share (14% target share). Since Week 5, he has averaged nine touches and 45.7 total yards. In those three games, he has had a 12.5% explosive run rate, 2.19 yards after contact per attempt, and a 31% missed tackle rate. Those numbers imply Kamara is getting healthier because he hasn't posted numbers like that until this point in the season. Kamara could surprise with a strong showing this week. The Browns have been bleeding out production to backs. Over their last five games, they have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and missed tackle rate. With Kendre Miller released, I expect Kamara's role to grow this week.

Last week, Adonai Mitchell was still just a part-time player with a 60.7% snap rate and 71.4% route share. He made the most of his routes with a 28.1% target share (24.6 aDOT), seven receptions, 142 receiving yards, one red zone target, five deep targets, and a 31% first-read share. Mitchell might log back-to-back strong weeks if Geno Smith is willing to test Kansas City's pass defense downfield. With Garrett Wilson out, he could also see a bump in his playing time and usage. The Chiefs have allowed the second-highest passer rating and the third-highest success rate to deep passing this season. Over their last five games, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in yards per target. Mansoor Delane out this week does make this pass defense a tad less fearsome. Also, another wrinkle working in Mitchell's favor is the Chiefs' love of two-high. Against two-high, Mitchell has excelled with a 25% TPRR and 2.45 YPRR. If Mitchell sees a bump in his usage and connects on some deep targets, he could pop off with another huge game.

Over the last two games, Dylan Sampson has had a 50.1% snap rate, a 15.9% rushing share, a 47.7% route share, and an 11.7% target share. Sampson has averaged eight touches and 73 total yards. In those two games, Sampson has had a 21% TPRR with an eye-popping 2.24 YPRR and a red zone target. With his minuscule rushing work, he has also had 2.43 yards after contact per attempt and a 14.3 explosive run rate. Sampson is a strong flex play this week, especially in PPR formats. He has been the RB28 and RB19 over the last two weeks. Over their last five games, New Orleans has allowed the third-highest yards per target, the tenth-most receiving fantasy points per game, and the tenth-most receiving yards to running backs. Sampson should also be able to make the most of his carries this week. Over their last five games, the Saints have allowed the seventh-highest rushing success rate, the fifth-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt, the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate.

It looks like Mack Hollins will be back this week. Hollins (calf) returned to practice this week with limited sessions all week. He doesn't have an injury designation this week. In three full games played this season, Hollins has one top-36 weekly finish (WR25). Hollins has a 23% TPRR with 2.49 YPRR this season. Drake Maye could lean on Hollins this week. Green Bay has the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (67.8%). Hollins has been a go-to option against two-high over the last two seasons with a 21% TPRR and 2.03 YPRR. Over their last five games, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most receiving fantasy points per game, but they have also yielded the tenth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity. Hollins is a decent flex play this week.

Last week, Antonio Williams' role grew. He tied for the team lead with a 20.7% target share and 27.8% first-read share while finishing with five receptions and 54 receiving yards. Williams had zero red zone targets and one deep target. The Commanders kept Stefon Diggs in the slot and had Williams run 60.7% of his routes from the perimeter. This week, he faces a Rams secondary that has the fifth-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Over the last two games, against two-high, Williams has had an 18% TPRR with 1.68 YPRR. Overall this season, against two high, Williams has a 17% TPRR with 1.33 YPRR. Williams could be a difference-making player down the stretch for fantasy squads, but I worry about his stat line for Week 9. Over the last five games, the Rams have held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest yards per target and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity.

Cam Skattebo didn't practice until Friday of this week (hamstring). He only managed a limited session on Friday and has been listed as doubtful. I expect Skattebo to miss this week, which means Devin Singletary should operate as the Giants' workhorse this week.

Kyle Monangai could be back this week. Monangai didn't practice until Friday this week (thumb/toe). He has been listed as questionable. Monangai is the RB16 in fantasy points per game this season, averaging 16.3 touches and 90.8 total yards. Among 42 qualifying rushers, Monangai is ninth in explosive run rate, second in yards after contact per attempt, and sixth in missed tackle rate. I don't expect Chicago to load him up with volume this week, but he could still be a solid flex this week. Over their last five games, Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-most yards after contact per attempt, the eighth-highest zone yards per carry, and the 13th-highest zone rushing success rate (Monangai: 70% zone).

It looks like Emeka Egbuka will be back this week. After opening the week with a DNP, he followed it up with full practices on Thursday and Friday. The Bucs have not wanted to throw the ball the last two games due to weather concerns and Baker Mayfield's ailing thumb. Maybe that changes this week, as they will likely be playing catch-up with the Bears leading. Egbuka is the WR32 in fantasy points per game with a 25.3% target share, 1.19 YPRR, six red zone targets, six deep targets, and a 31.7% first-read share. Egbuka could turn in a nice stat line this week if Mayfield can deliver catchable targets. Over their last five games, the Bears have allowed the fourth-most yards per target and the most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.