Derek Brown

Luther Burden opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He could easily miss this week. I'll update his status on Friday once we know more about his outlook for Week 16.

Aaron Rodgers is the QB24 in fantasy points per game as he continues to play low aDOT point guard for Pittsburgh. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he still has the lowest aDOT (6.0) and the highest percentage of his passing yards from yards after the catch (67.3%) while ranking 21st in yards per attempt, tenth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 25th in passing yards per game. Since Week 11, Detroit's pass defense has been horrible, giving up the most passing yards per game, the third-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback. They might surprise this week, though. Overall, this defense has allowed the fourth-lowest yards after the catch and the third-fewest missed tackles, which strikes at the core of the Pittsburgh passing offensive design. Rodgers is a QB2 again this week.

Matthew Stafford is the QB4 in fantasy points per game with QB1 weekly finishes in eight of his last 11 games. The last time that he played Seattle, he was the QB16 for the week, though. Stafford will have an uphill climb this week to be a top 12 quarterback, but it's possible. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks seventh in yards per attempt, 13th in catchable target rate, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 11, Seattle's pass defense has remained nasty, giving up the lowest passing yards per game, the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Stafford could be a QB1 this week, but losing Davante Adams this week doesn't help his outlook.

Before we get into last week's numbers, I want to say Philip Rivers surprised me. Considering that he hadn't played in the NFL in five years and suited up on short notice, he looked good. Did he look like a 45-year-old quarterback at times, moving around in the pocket? Yep. Would I like him to have more zip on some passes? Yep. Does that mean he can't play point guard for this offense right now? Nope. Last week, Rivers played point effectively with a 4.8 aDOT, a 66.7% highly accurate throw rate, and a 77.8% catchable target rate. Sadly, that amounted to only 120 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 4.4 yards per attempt, and a QB28 finish for fantasy. Rivers is a low-end QB2 again this week, but he should be able to manage the game effectively again. Since Week 11, the 49ers have allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest CPOE, and ranked 16th in yards per attempt. It should also help Rivers that during that span, this defense has had the third-lowest pressure rate.

Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins can't play the Buccaneers weekly. In his last three meetings with Tampa Bay, he has finished as the QB1, QB3, and QB3 in weekly scoring, so I guess last week's performance shouldn't be a surprise. It was, though, because last week was just the second time this season he has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns, and the first game that he surpassed 240 yards through the air. Overall, among 48 qualifying passers, Cousins is 30th in yards per attempt, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, 40th in fantasy points per dropback, and 33rd in hero throw rate. Cousins likely doesn't equal last week's output, but he could surprise and flirt with QB1 production. Arizona's pass defense has fallen apart. Since Week 11, Arizona has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the second-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE.

Travis Kelce is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 56.9 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. Kelce has 11 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Even with Gardner Minshew tossing him passes, Kelce is a strong TE1 this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Keenan Allen is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn't finished inside the top-36 in weekly scoring among wide receivers since Week 7. That was also the last time that Allen surpassed 55 receiving yards in a game. Since Week 8, Allen has had an 18% target share with 35 receiving yards per game, 1.58 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had only two red zone targets and four deep targets. Maybe the plus matchup this week against Dallas helps to elevate Allen's stat line, but this Chargers offense has also skewed run-heavy to protect Justin Herbert, and I don't see that changing this week. Allen is just another middling flex play this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Pete Carroll has stated that the Raiders' offense could have Geno Smith back under center for Week 16. I don't care if Smith is starting or Kenny Pickett this week. I don't want to play the Raiders starting quarterback in fantasy lineups this week. Whoever it is will be in for a long day. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.