Derek Brown

In his two starts this season, Deshaun Watson has finished as the QB21 and QB12 in weekly fantasy scoring. Watson has been a low aDOT point guard for the offense. Among 29 qualifying passers, he has the third-lowest aDOT, the fourth-highest rate of passing yards that have been from YAC (59.6%), the 11th-highest off-target rate, and the seventh-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Watson will likely have a Week 3 performance closer to Week 1 against the Panthers' pass defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest passing success rate, and the tenth-lowest EPA per dropback.

JK Dobbins left last week's game with what was reported as a hamstring issue, but then it was changed to cramps. Well, now he has been listed on the practice report with a hip issue, so who knows what is actually going on with him. Dobbins had a limited practice on Wednesday and full sessions for the rest of the week. Dobbins will be Denver's early down grinder this week. He left last week's game, so his usage is kinda muddied. In Week 1, he finished with eight rushing attempts and 36 rushing yards (zero targets). In Week 1, he played 40.4% of the snaps, had 53.3% of the team's rushing attempts, and a 15.2% route share. In his limited duty, he has posted a solid 13.3% explosive run rate and 2.39 yards after contact per attempt. Dobbins has a nice matchup on the ground this week. The Rams have allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate, the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt, and have the lowest rate of contacting a back at or behind the line of scrimmage. If Dobbins doesn't score a touchdown, you'll likely be disappointed that you started him, though. He's a touchdown-dependent flex.

RJ Harvey missed last week's game with a hamstring injury. Harvey had a limited practice to open the week and followed it up with full sessions. He doesn't carry any injury designation into this week's game. I expect him to reprise the passing-down role he held in Week 1, especially with Jonah Coleman out. In Week 1, Harvey finished with seven touches and 41 total yards. He had a 53.2% snap rate, 20% of the rushing attempts, a 42.4% route share, and a 14.3% target share. Sit Harvey this week. The Rams have held backs to the sixth-fewest yards per target despite facing the fourth-most running back targets.

Last week, Terrance Ferguson exploded as the TE8 for the week. Yes, Puka Nacua was out, but that's the exact scenario for this week as well. Through three quarters of last week's game, Ferguson was a full-time player (before the score got out of hand). In the first three quarters against the Giants, Ferguson had a 66.7% snap rate, a 71.4% route share, a 26.9% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Ferguson is a strong TE1 again this week. Denver has allowed the fourth-most yards per target and the 13th-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.

Last week, Aaron Jones sustained a knee injury. He finished the game wearing a brace. This week, Jones sat out of practice on Wednesday, was limited on Thursday, and had a full session on Friday. Jones doesn't carry an injury designation into this week's game, but he's clearly not 100%. Last week, he had an 80.4% snap rate, an 82.1% rushing share, a 41.7% route share, and zero targets. He finished with 23 touches and 105 rushing yards. I doubt he gets anywhere close to that type of workload this week. In Week 1, Jones had a 42.6% snap rate, a 35.3% rushing share, and a 23.3% route share (4.2% target share) as he finished with 13 touches and 40 total yards. I'd expect a workload close to Week 1 against the Bucs or somewhere in the middle ground of these two games. The Vikes don't have another healthy back that they trust like Jones. DeeJay Dallas could assist some on early downs while taking on pass-pro snaps to lessen Jones' workload. Jones has acted his age in the efficiency department with only 1.80 yards after contact per attempt and a 9% missed tackle rate. With all of these concerns, Jones is only a middling flex play this week with a bad matchup. Tampa Bay has limited backs to the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, and the seventh-lowest EPA per rush.

The backfield for New Orleans has been a mess through two games. Last week, with Alvin Kamara back, Travis Etienne led the backfield with a 53.1% snap rate, but he had only 29.6% of the rushing attempts (Kamara 33.3%) and a 33.3% route share (Kamara 23.1%). Kamara had a 17.6% target share while Etienne lagged behind with only a 5.9% share. Etienne finished with ten touches and 31 total yards. This isn't the type of usage that anyone (including myself) projected for Etienne entering this season. Kamara also got the team's only running back red zone rushing attempt. Etienne has posted a respectable 11.8% explosive run rate and 18% missed tackle rate. Etienne could be an RB2 with a bad matchup this week, but he's best viewed as a risky flex at this point until his usage improves. The Raiders have allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-lowest rushing success rate, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate. Etienne popped up on the injury report this week with a hamstring issue. He had limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday, but he upgraded to a full session on Friday. He doesn't carry an injury designation into this game.

Rashod Bateman assumed a larger role in the Baltimore passing attack in Week 2 without Zay Flowers. Bateman finished as the WR8 for the week. Bateman had a 29% target share, 88 receiving yards (2.84 YPRR), one red zone target, two deep targets, and a 38.1% first-read share. It was wonderful usage for the talented Bateman. I'm approaching this week as if Zay Flowers will be out again. This will vault Bateman back into last week's workload in a wonderful matchup. Last week, Washington's offense fell apart in the second half with Marcus Mariota under center. Dallas's pass defense in Week 1 is probably a better litmus test for their perimeter corners when evaluating this matchup. In Week 1, Dallas was 17th in yards per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers while giving up the tenth-most receiving fantasy points.

I'm approaching this week as if Brock Bowers will be out. He had only limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday before missing Friday's practice. The coaching staff stated that his absence on Friday was planned. I'm attempting to read the tea leaves here, but if he hasn't practiced in full yet and was held out for the walkthrough on Friday, I'm looking at that situation as he's more likely to return next week. Our Are They Playing Tool gives Bowers a 47% of playing this week.