Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes hasn't been a top-six fantasy quarterback in fantasy points per game since 2022. Over the past two seasons, his passing prowess has suffered with 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt and back-to-back finishes with less than 30 passing touchdowns and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. His rushing production is a nice added value bump at this point that we should expect. Mahomes has finished inside the top 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards in each of the past five seasons (12th, 7th, 9th, 6th, 10th). We know that Kansas City will pass a ton. That is a given at this point, as they have ranked in the top three in neutral passing rate in each of the last four seasons. The worry for Mahomes has been that he has quietly struggled as a passer over the last two seasons. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in CPOE. His shortcomings as a deep passer have plagued him for the last two seasons, as he has been in the bottom ten in CPOE and in the top ten in off-target rate with deep passes (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes will have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1 again this year, but unless his passing skills return to a top-shelf level, it's tough to consider him as anything more than a low-end QB1.

Fantasy gamers have to recalibrate expectations for Patrick Mahomes following another season in which he failed to deliver top-tier production. After averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in each of his first five seasons as Kansas City's starting quarterback, Mahomes has averaged fewer than 19 fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in that category among QBs. He finished with 3,928 passing yards and 26 TD passes in 2024, with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt. Subpar protection from his offensive line and a season-ending injury to WR Rashee Rice early on didn't help, but it's now difficult to envision Mahomes leading all QBs in fantasy scoring, as he did in 2018 and 2022. Still, Mahomes is an every-week fantasy starter who won't leave you adrift at the position. With Xavier Worthy coming off a strong late-season run, Rice back from injury, Travis Kelce returning for at least one more season, and Marquise Brown and rookie Jaylen Royals, Mahomes should have no shortage of pass-catching weaponry.

The Chiefs finished 2nd in pass rate over expectation in 2024. Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in expected fantasy points per game.
But alas, for the second straight season, he did not deliver. Mahomes was under 20 points per game (19.1) as the QB10. It was his second straight year he failed to finish top 7 overall, and his first finish outside the top 10 since he became a starter.
However, not all his fault. Rashee Rice got hurt, Travis Kelce showed his age and Xavier Worthy took time to get going. Once the rookie got ramped up, the production followed. Week 8 onward, the Chiefs QB averaged 21 points per game.
There are enough positives from last year to buy the dip on the Chiefs QB in your 2025 drafts.