Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes saw his season end in Week 15 last year with a torn ACL. Prior to that horrible injury, he was the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, he averaged a career-high 6.6 rushing attempts per game and 30.1 rushing yards per game. He was first in scrambles per game and 14th in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. I don't expect those numbers to repeat this season coming off the ACL injury. Mahomes will work from the pocket more in 2026, especially to open the season. Last year, outside of the immense passing volume he saw, it was an uninspiring year for Mahomes as an accurate passer. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 18th in yards per attempt, 24th in adjusted completion rate, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes should return strong QB1 numbers again in 2026 based upon volume alone, but I won't be surprised if he regresses back into the low-end QB1 territory that he lived in 2023-2024 (QB11, QB10).

Patrick Mahomes' fantasy appeal has diminished in recent years, and now the nine-year veteran is trying to recover from a major knee injury. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in the Chiefs' Week 15 loss to the Chargers in mid-December. Reports say he has been rehabbing aggressively in hopes of starting the Chiefs' Monday-night season opener against the Broncos on Sept. 14, which comes three days before his 31st birthday. Even if Mahomes is able to return for Week 1, his mobility could be compromised. Mahomes' rushing production helped him get off to a fast fantasy start in 2025. Through eight weeks, he was QB1 in fantasy scoring at 25 points per game, fueled in part by 280 rushing yards and four TD runs. Mahomes finished the year tied for QB2 in fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen, after finishing QB11 in FPPG (six games minimum) in both 2023 and 2024. Kansas City didn't make any significant additions to Mahomes' pass-catching arsenal in the offseason, but the Chiefs added RB Kenneth Walker III, who could make Mahomes' life easier by providing the Chiefs with a credible running threat.

Our first report on Patrick Mahomes' return from injury came on January 15th, when he claimed that he is aiming to return for Week 1 with no restrictions. Given his mid-December surgery, Week 1 seems aggressively optimistic (less than 9 months).
That's really the main question mark regarding Mahomes - when will he return and how effective will he be? Especially with his mobility. Mahomes ran a lot more in 2025 than he has in years past, hitting career-highs across the board (QB2 in PPG). But his passing has dipped in four consecutive seasons. And the injury makes it seem very much less likely we get Mahomes running nearly as much, especially to keep him out of harm's way. Low-end QB1 territory feels right for the Chiefs QB, weighing his early-season performance with a high return in the latter portion of the 2026 season.