QB - DEN
Russell Wilson's weapons/supporting cast overall are pretty even going from Seattle to Denver, but Nathaniel Hackett calling the shots is an upgrade over Pete Carroll.
Hackett's obviously had success with Aaron Rodgers that has translated into fantasy, so a top-five fantasy quarterback outcome is firmly in play with Wilson in 2022. After all, Wilson's long track record of efficient fantasy play is undeniable - he has finished among the top-six fantasy QBs five times since 2014.
I like his chances of making it seven in 2022. Because Wilson is still among the league's elite passers when healthy. Before the finger derailed his season, Russ led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before Week 5. Wilson also finished the season on a high note, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game in his last three contests.
All in all, 2021 was a typical season for Wilson: peaks and valleys. He averaged 23 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 16-18. In his six games post-injury, Wilson averaged an abysmal 13 fantasy points per game. Buy the inevitable 2022 dip on the future Hall of Fame quarterback in a new situation.
That combined with a plethora of weapons in Denver, makes it very plausible he sees similar immediate success that other quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have had since changing teams late into their careers.
However a QB10 ADP might be too rich, as I think he belongs in the same tier as Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford.
Currently, he's the only QB drafted inside the top-12 that failed to hit the fantasy QB1 mark at least 50% of the time in 2021.
He also has the lowest top-6 hit rate (15%), lowest top-12 rate (46%), and second-highest bust rate among the top-12 ADP.
Considering the only "upgrade" Wilson has moved from Denver to Seattle is more favorable coaching (not necessarily receiver personnel, especially with the underrated loss of Tim Patrick), he's likely going to be inconsistent and overvalued due to a lack of rushing juice.
Under new HC, Nathaniel Hackett, Russell will finally be in a system that wants to throw the ball... not a ton like Lombardi in LAC or Reid/Bieniemy in KC, certainly not the dead-last expected pass attempts per game Russ was a part of in Seattle. Russ will cook!
Perennially one of the most dependable fantasy QBs, Wilson finished QB13 in fantasy points per game last season and struggled after coming back from a grisly finger injury that cost him three midseason games. But now Wilson has a shiny new outlook with the Broncos, who seem willing to open their pantry and let Russ cook. There's reason to be cautiously optimistic about a rebound season.
Wilson struggled with injuries and poor play on a Seattle team that missed the postseason for the first time since 2017. He has a new lease on his professional career in Denver with a ton of young talent on offense and a more aggressive offensive system. Wilson should be a very strong QB1 in 2022.
Win to get out of Pete Carroll's awful run-obsessed O, even if weapons are a downgrade
Joe Burrow QB-CIN
recommended by 78% of experts
Tom Brady QB-TB
recommended by 63% of experts
Dak Prescott QB-DAL
recommended by 48% of experts
Matthew Stafford QB-LAR
recommended by 19% of experts
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