LeGarrette Blount will likely be a deciding factor in Super Bowl 49
After a week and a half of non-stop, mind-numbing discussion of air pressure, let’s take a moment to reflect on what we’ve learned during this incredible postseason. We witnessed Cam Newton take a step forward in his progression as an NFL QB, while Jim Caldwell and the Lions self-destructed once again on the big stage. We all left our living rooms emotionally drained after the incomprehensible Dez Bryant incompletion yet awestruck after Seattle miraculously overcame five turnovers to battle back and defeat Green Bay. During the 2014 season, the NFL has been marred by its share of controversy, but in the end we the fans got what we all wanted, the best two teams (Patriots and Seahawks) in the Super Bowl. With that in mind, let’s see what the numbers have to say about how we got here.
4.62 – LeGarrette Blount’s yards per carry (YPC) since joining the Pats in Week 12
Since reuniting with the Pats in Week 12 (after being cut by the Steelers), Blount has rushed 93 times for 430 yards and six TDs. The newfound Patriots’ running game (sponsored in part by Mike Tomlin) has become a viable a la carte offensive weapon that Belichick employs in favorable matchups and game flow situations. Blount, a noted bruiser, appears more agile in 2014 than in previous years. His familiarity with the team provides a reliable and efficient option for the Pats rushing attack.
38 – The largest postseason margin of victory in Patriots history
The Patriots have been a staple of the NFL playoffs during Belichick’s 15-year tenure, including five Super Bowl appearances and three World Championships. The Pats have also won 10 or more regular season games in 12 consecutive seasons. However, one of their most dominating performances came against the outmanned Colts in the AFC Championship. The Pats 45-7 drubbing over the Colts displayed their superior talent and cohesiveness on both sides of the ball.
4.42 – Seattle Seahawks defensive rushing YPC allowed in the playoffs
After boasting the league’s second-stingiest rushing defense during the regular season (3.4 YPC), the Seattle D has been leaky against the run in January. In the Seahawks two home playoff games, Carolina rattled off 130 yards on 30 carries, and Eddie Lacy & James Starks led the Pack to 135 yards of their own. Do these recent performances suggest that Seattle’s D is losing its edge in the run game? Probably not, but it does tip off opposing offenses that they can successfully operate a balanced attack and stick with running the ball well into the fourth quarter. I’m sure Belichick has noticed, and Blount will likely be an overlooked, yet valuable cog in the Pat’s Super Bowl game plan.
33.4: Patriots points per game since Week 5
After being dismantled by the Dolphins and Chiefs in the first quarter of the season, the Patriots regrouped and went on an offensive tear throughout the rest of the season. They have averaged 33 PPG since Week 5 and have amassed 40+ points in six of those games. Rob Gronkowski has re-emerged as the most physical mismatch in football, and Julian Edelman has emerged as the ultimate Swiss-Army knife in Belichick’s bag of tricks. The blueprint for beating Seattle is known; methodically move the ball down the field by taking what they give and do not, under any circumstance, turn the ball over. San Diego perfected the plan and Green Bay engineered six scoring drives against Seattle two weeks ago. The Patriots know what to do, but the question remains, will they be able to execute it?
9.9 – Seahawks points allowed during their eight-game winning streak
Similarly to New England, the Seahawks got off to a slow start before rebounding in the second half of the season. Since Week 12, Seattle has won eight straight games and has yielded only 9.9 points per game. It is common knowledge that Seattle boasts one of the best defensive units in the league, but allowing less than 10 points per game is exceptional. Or is it? The asterisk beside Seattle’s extraordinary defensive stats is their tragic strength of schedule. From Weeks 12 through 17, the Seahawks faced four backup QBs (Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill) and Colin Kaepernick twice. Sure, the Seahawks can only play who’s on their schedule, but those extreme matchups lead to statistical outliers, not norms. More recently in their past two outings against Carolina and Green Bay, Seattle gave up 19 PPG and only thrived defensively off of turnovers (five total in those two matchups). Additionally, Richard Sherman (hyperextended elbow) and Earl Thomas (dislocated shoulder) are still recovering from injuries and will be well below 100% this week. In spite their notoriety and flair, even the best defensive unit in football has holes that can be exploited.
10-0: Russell Wilson’s record against Super Bowl winning QBs
In his short, three-year career, Russell Wilson has dominated the best QBs in the game. He’s 1-0 vs. Tom Brady, 2-0 vs. Drew Brees, 2-0 vs. Peyton Manning, 2-0 vs. Eli Manning, and 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers. Although eight of those ten games were played in the friendly confines of Seattle’s Century Link field and one at a neutral site, Seattle has consistently shown up on the biggest stage. Wilson looks to improve his record to 11-0 against the QB elites Sunday versus Tom Brady.
5: The number of consecutive games in which Tom Brady has thrown an interception.
Dating back to Week 14 against the Chargers, Tom Brady has thrown a pick in each of the last five games (excluding a meaningless Week 17 game when Brady and the starters only played sparingly). In the most recent games against the Ravens and Colts, Brady threw INTs on identical, intermediate post routes intended for Gronk. On both attempts, Brady severely underthrew his TE and hit the opposing linebacker in the hands. Brady, typically known for his precision and efficiency, has struggled lately on these longer, touch throws. Protecting the football will be of utmost importance if Brady and the Patriots hope to unseat the defending champs.
6: The number of Marshawn Lynch’s 1,000 yard rushing seasons
Lynch’s sixth 1,000 yard rushing has in large part carried the Seahawks offense this year. He ripped off 157 yards against the Packers in the NFC Championship en route to an epic come-from-behind victory. At age 28, Lynch averaged 4.7 YPC and scored a league-high 17 TDs. Though New England was inconsistent against opposing rushers this season, they only allowed 3.6 YPC over the last five regular season games. Justin Forsett dropped 129 rushing yards on the Pats in the Divisional Round, and the Seahawks will need a similar performance from Lynch to repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
Patrick Johnson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Patrick, check out his archive and follow him @PattyJ38.
