Spring is an exciting time of year for dynasty fantasy football managers. While the flora and fauna are abloom and the air is filled with clouds of pollen and attention-seeking shrieks, roster rejuvenation is at the forefront of our minds. The NFL Draft has all of us atwitter with a colorful plumage and rosterbatory screenshots on social platforms, but beware, dynasty rookie draft busts are lurking.
The cautionary tales are right there in the roster cuts used to clear space for the new fledglings of tomorrow. That 2021 dynasty rookie draft pick 3.09 you strutted for on Periscope (if you know, you know) is now 9% rostered and has a scythe-shaped shadow looming above. Those players belong to the grasp of winter now. We must forge ahead and do our best to avoid a repeat of our failures.
The stage is mostly set for us. We know for whom the 2024 rookies will play and for how much they are valued through draft capital. Hypothesizing about situations, such as positional camp battles and defining roles, is another necessary distraction until autumn descends. The results will ultimately iron out the wrinkles, but this column aims to neatly fold that fitted sheet for later use.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Dynasty Rookie Draft Busts
We are not necessarily doomed to repeat history, especially when a newly shuffled shoe of cards is introduced to the table. The bust cards are there. It’s high time we ensure our opponent is left holding them. These are the rookie skill players I expect to fall short of the expectations levied by their average draft position (ADP) in dynasty formats.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)
The fastest man in the history of the NFL has a nice ring to it. Xavier Worthy is very exciting and landed what nearly everyone is heralding as the “Tyreek Hill” role in Kansas City. Not only do 40 times not have any correlation to NFL success for receivers, but the Chiefs are notorious for doling out snaps to their receivers like soup in a Charles Dickens novel. More? Worthy’s size is a real concern. He was utterly bullied by press coverage in college, with a success rate in the 28th percentile, according to Reception Perception. Worthy is a better route runner than other combine burners, but could require every ounce of Andy Reid’s genius to pay off as a rookie first-round pick.
Drake Maye (QB – NE)
The Patriots think they have their QB of the future. They very well could be right about that, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee any correlating success in fantasy football. Drake Maye is a project. He is Josh Allen without the golden retriever joie de vivre and zest for risking life and limb to move the chains. Maye also will take the reins of an offense still lacking in playmaking weapons.
The North Carolina gunslinger has the physical tools to be a boom/bust passer like Allen, but is nowhere near the rushing weapon we yearn for in the stat sheet. Caleb Williams is a more polished version of the same aggressive ilk, while Jayden Daniels is the Konami Code personified. Maye just seems out of place in the first half of the first round of Superflex rookie drafts.
Spencer Rattler (QB – NO)
I have no earthly idea why Spencer Rattler is being selected in rookie drafts at all. I suppose it has to do with my aversion to quarterbacks who consistently make poor decisions. Rattler is a gifted athlete, but find me a professional QB who isn’t. His tangible traits as a passer are a mess. He is Jameis Winston without the college success and that should petrify dynasty managers.
He doesn’t even measure up to New Orleans’ investment in Jake Haener last year in draft capital. I don’t like to put a red x over prospects as a rule. Spencer Rattler is an exception to that. He would need an unprecedented turnaround from prospect to professional to earn a tip of my cap.
Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF)
Big running back go fast. The race on the way to the track meet among Kyle Shanahan and his disciples is bordering on a fetish. Their brand of offense thrives on the RB stressing the defense horizontally, before breaking downfield with angle-erasing foot speed. Isaac Guerendo has long speed, evidenced by his blistering sub-4.40 in the 40-yard dash. His tape is littered with examples that negate his raw athleticism. His contact balance and vision are below average, while also lacking lateral agility in traffic which makes Shanahan’s offense so explosive and difficult to defend.
Guerendo is simply the latest example of the 49ers burning a third-round selection on RB depth. Believe me when I tell you their hit rate is abysmal (think Trey Sermon and Tyrion Davis-Price). There isn’t much evidence Guerendo is any different, other than having more helium from a great combine and a landing spot that has hardly born any fruit to warrant the excitement at the RB position.
Any TE Not Named Brock Bowers
Take it from me. I’m the guy who rosters (and hoards) elite TE prospects like cherished gems. I don’t dabble in the periphery. Center cut or nothing at all. Tight ends rarely pay off in fantasy before their careers have matured like a fine wine. Nearly all of the exceptions were bona fide can’t-miss prospects. Brock Bowers might be the best TE prospect of all time. He is just as skilled as he is athletic and will have a real chance to earn a 20% target share for the Raiders in his rookie season.
There are some nice prospects in this class, but you need not use any rookie draft capital on them. You will find them on waivers next year around this time when the time comes to move them from the taxi squad, in which case most dynasty managers lose faith and cut bait for something new and shiny. Bowers is so good that he makes the rest of this crop look insignificant by comparison. That isn’t necessarily the case in real-life football; for the sake of your dynasty roster, wait for the fruit to weigh the branch instead of plucking the pretty flower.
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
Expert Must-Have Rookies (Premium)
DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
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