Chris Davis disappointed most owners, but he could be a value in 2015

Fantasy baseball drafts are underway, Spring Training is alive and well, and questions are abound regarding some names that sorely disappointed in 2014. The great thing about baseball is, the upfront stat line doesn’t necessarily tell the full story and that can be taken advantage of.

To sort through the numbers and find the truth about some of the poor play last season, the experts have named their bounce-back hitters and pitchers for 2015. Again, it’s hard to disregard what a player might have done to your team last season, but there’s reasons the names below shouldn’t instill fear when considering them for your team this year. Here are the pundits’ bounce-back candidates.

Q1. Name a hitter you expect to bounce-back after disappointing fantasy owners in 2014

Chris Davis (1B/3B, BAL)
“If you’ve been playing fantasy sports as long as I have, then you know that there is always one owner who faces an uphill battle from day one due to his first-round pick not panning out. It’s unfortunate, but it’s just the nature of the beast, and last year the early bust award easily went to Chris Davis. His 2013 campaign saw him post a .286/53/138 line with 103 runs and an insane .348 ISO, which vaulted his ADP into the first round for 2014 drafts. His encore? His batting average dropped a full 90 points, his K% was a career-high 33.0%, and his WAR dropped from an elite 6.8 to a barely roster-worthy 0.5. He did still manage 26 home runs, but his 72 RBI and 65 runs represented counting stats that you could get several rounds later. So why is he high on my draft list this year? First of all, his ADP is hovering in the 68-72 range for 2015 thus far, which is somewhere in the sixth round for 12-team leagues. For that draft position, you are getting someone who has hit 112 homers over the last three years. In our post-steroid era, that kind of power should be considered a premium. Yes, I know the batting average is a legitimate concern, and his career 31.0% K% is not going to help matters any. Chasing his .286 mark from 2013 is a fool’s errand, but last year’s .199 is not right either, especially considering his BB% actually went up to a career-high 11.4% and his .242 BABIP suggests he had some bad luck. I expect to see the batting average stabilize this year to approximately his career .253 mark, and you can easily make up for that with some high-BA middle infielders. Remember, this pick is all about value, and if you play it right you are getting a guy with a floor of about 28 HR with a ceiling into the 40s. Oh yeah, and you’re getting it five rounds later than last year.”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)

Jay Bruce (RF, CIN)
“Bruce should have a nice bounce-back season in 2015. After hitting 30+ HR the previous 3 seasons, Bruce managed only 18 HR in 2014. He also had his career worst batting average at .217. With a career batting average of .251 he’s not a contributor in that category, but he should be able to provide something in the .240-260 range, making him far less of a drag on your fake team’s average. Hitting in the middle of what is again a healthy and potent Reds lineup, he should see a plethora of opportunities to pad his counting stats. With Joey Votto hitting in front of him, he could hit .217 again and still notch 80 RBI. Even if Bruce only manages 20-25 HR this year, he should also chip in 10+ SB. Last year Bruce showed us his absolute floor and there is a good deal of upside, as he’s only 1 season removed from a .262/89/30/109/7 line of production. With an ADP of 96, there is little risk involved in selecting Bruce and a ton of room for value.”
– Justin Klein (The Fake Baseball)

Jean Segura (SS, MIL)
“Segura is coming off of a miserable sophomore/junior slump filled with a brutal OBP and personal tragedy. There’s reason for hope, though. He put together a respectable second half of 2014, most of which is due to an impressive September. Plus, there’s really nowhere to go for him, but up. He’s not going to be a superstar, but I’d expect him to drive the ball better this year, and a higher OBP will come with a return of his massive SB numbers.”
– Tim Young (MLB Soup)

Q2. Name a pitcher you expect to bounce-back after disappointing fantasy owners in 2014

Mike Minor (SP, ATL)
“Minor is a pitcher that I expect to have a bounce-back season in 2015. While he did suffer injuries before the season in 2014, he also dealt with a dip in performance and some bad luck. He saw an increase in his walk rate and a dip in his strikeout rate which lead to the worst ERA he has posted since his rookie season. That said, his FIP was nearly half a run lower than his ERA, and his BABIP allowed was well over the major league average. An average that he had been under the previous 3 seasons. For the 2015 season I expect Minor to again post a BABIP at or below the league average and thus an ERA in the mid-to-high threes. I also expect a K/9 of at least 8. Those aren’t great fantasy numbers, but they are solid and can be had quite cheaply on draft day. With an ADP of 249 there is zero risk involved in selecting Minor and a ton of room for value. ”
– Justin Klein (The Fake Baseball)

Justin Verlander (SP, DET)
“OK, if you follow my advice and take a flier on Verlander, make sure you do so with the understanding that he is no longer the pitcher that warranted ace-status. Last year, Verlander’s peripherals were horrid (4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), and we also saw his K/9 dip to 6.95 and his average velocity drop to 92.3 MPH (both career lows). So why take the plunge on stats that would seem to do nothing but hurt you? The most important factor is his ADP of 190 (mid-15th round for 12-team leagues), so Verlander should be nothing more than a SP5/6 at that point, carrying very little downside. Verlander’s 3.74 FIP suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, and his 3.29 FIP in the second half stabilized that point even more. Additionally, Verlander has reported to camp with 27 more pounds of muscle, and he has publicly stated that his shoulder feels 100% healthy after bothering him for most of last year. He still pitches in a pitcher-friendly park and the stacked lineup behind him gives him additional win upside. Take the plunge!”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)

Shelby Miller (SP, ATL)
“Miller struggled mightily last season to put lefties away. His walk rates skyrocketed while his strikeout rates plummeted. That said, he seemed to fix his problems by the end of the season. In September, he produced a 2.77 FIP, and his BB/9 was cut in half from the first half of the season to the second. There are few places that are better for a pitcher than St. Louis, but luckily for Miller, Atlanta might just be one of them.”
– Tim Young (MLB Soup)

We’d like to thank the experts for their contributions. You can see where these players are ranked and drafted via our ECR and Composite ADP.