Devonta Freeman could be the Falcons primary RB in 2015
It is never too early to gear up for the NFL fantasy season, particularly for those of us in competitive dynasty leagues. The below players are current dynasty league risers and fallers, based upon pending free agent moves, rumored team personnel decisions and beat writer reports following the NFL Scouting Combine. Now would be a good time to target those risers in trades before the NFL Draft and free agency begins, and sell high on players who may see a decline in fantasy stock value.
Rising
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
It is almost certain that the Falcons will be releasing Steven Jackson as a salary-cap casualty prior to the 2015 season. That would leave second-year running back Devonta Freeman as the only Falcons running back under contract. In his rookie season, Freeman had 65 carries for 248 yards and 1 TD. Now that he’s had a year to adjust to the NFL, his value is on the rise. Additionally, last week Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff met with media at the NFL Scouting Combine and said that Freeman could be a full-time running back in new OC Kyle Shanahan’s offensive zone blocking scheme, bolstering the possibility he will be the 2015 Falcons’ feature back. New head coach Dan Quinn also stated that he has “high hopes” for Freeman in 2015. Of course, rumors that the Falcons are interesting in signing Justin Forsett this offseason could impact Freeman’s fantasy value. However, even if Forsett is signed, some Atlanta media outlets have speculated that Freeman would likely remain the favorite to be the Falcons’ 2015 starting running back. Dynasty owners can expect a good increase in Freeman’s value, especially if the Falcons don’t sign Forsett.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Eli Manning’s name has not been synonymous with the phrase “fantasy elite QB” but that may very well change in 2015, when he could finish as a top-5 fantasy QB. This past year, Manning shook off a disastrous 2013 season and finished with a very solid QB rating of 92.1 with 379 completion, 4,410 yards (275.6 yards/game), 30 TDs, and 14 INTs. In 2015, Odell Beckham Jr. will serve as Manning’s primary WR option for all 16 games and Victor Cruz will return following a horrible patellar tendon tear suffered early in the 2014 season. While Cruz may never return to his former self, he remains a viable weapon for Manning. Additionally, Reuben Randle will return as WR3, and GM Jerry Reese has mentioned that if an offense playmaker is available at pick number 9 in the 2015 NFL Draft the Giants will take him, despite their pressing needs on OL and defense. Additionally, if the Giants do not use the 9th overall pick to draft an offensive lineman, it’s a certainty that the Giants’ needs at OL will be addressed in latter draft rounds or free agency. Putting that together with a relatively easy schedule might allow Eli to exceed his best season (2011: 92.9 Rating, 308.3 Yards/Game, 29 TDs and 16 INTs). Even at 34 years old, Manning’s dynasty value is on the rise.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Taliaferro’s rising dynasty value is primarily based on the possibility that Justin Forsett will end up elsewhere (as mentioned above, Atlanta is a possibility). If Forsett leaves, Taliaferro would likely take over lead back duties in front of Bernard Pierce. Even if Forsett stays in Baltimore, Taliaferro’s dynasty league value is still on the rise, particularly in PPR dynasty leagues, because new OC Marc Trestman requires his backs to be effective and consistent receivers. Last season, Taliaferro showed great promise as a receiving back when he caught 8 receptions (10 targets) for 114 yards (14.3 yard/reception). Assuming Taliaferro can continue to adjust to the NFL in his second season and grow as a pass blocker, he should see more playing time and become a larger contributor on offense in both rushing and passing schemes. Taliaferro dynasty league owners have a reason to be excited as the 2015 season begins.
Cody Latimer, WR, Denver Broncos
Latimer is another WR whose dynasty stock is on the rise based upon pending personnel moves. With Wes Welker likely leaving Denver, Latimer may be the favorite to play outside opposite Demaryius Thomas in three-WR sets, along with slot WR Emmanuel Sanders. Also, it appears likely that Julius Thomas will not be a Bronco in 2015. Both factors could greatly enhance Latimer’s playing time and fantasy value. Although Gary Kubiak will use fewer three-WR sets in 2015 than John Fox used in 2014, Latimer should still flourish when they do. Kubiak has reportedly said he “really really liked” Latimer when he spent time with him before the 2014 NFL Draft, and it is clear Latimer is in the Broncos’ immediate plans, meaning more fantasy value for 2015 and beyond.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
In 2014 the Colts averaged the most passing yards per game in the NFL (306 yards) and led the league with 42 TD receptions. Given the fact that Hakeem Nicks and/or Reggie Wayne may not both return to the Colts in 2015, Moncrief’s playing time will likely be increased in this pass heavy offense which immediately enhances his fantasy value going forward. While he may not be a top tier fantasy WR at this point in his career, and he was more of a boom/bust option in 2014, Moncrief certainly projects as a WR3 with a very high ceiling as a potential 2015 breakout WR. He is a great dynasty option for 2015 and beyond; and a good target for those dynasty league owners who are in need of bolstering their WR depth through a trade for a decent price right now.
Falling
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
Wait, what? Most experts presently have C.J. Anderson (who finished 2014 with 849 rushing yards, 324 receiving yards and 10 TDs) as a sure-fire top tier RB heading into 2015, which makes the decision to characterize him as a dynasty league faller questionable, if not insane. The reason he is a faller, however, has nothing to do with his capabilities, and more to do with the fact that both Montee Ball (appendectomy/groin) and Ronnie Hillman (foot) will be returning in 2015 fully recovered from the injuries which undercut their 2014 seasons. Ball, the Broncos starting RB heading into 2014, has recently vowed to return and be “ready to win the job” back from Anderson. Although likely, it is no guarantee that Anderson will fend off Ball and/or Hillman and retain the starting job he held for the last 8 games in 2014. As such, Anderson’s presently high dynasty value is tenuous, even with Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking, rushing-friendly offense looming in 2015. Whoever wins the starting job in Denver should be expected to finish as a top-10, if not a top-5 fantasy RB. The question is: which RB will it be, and does it make sense for Anderson owners in dynasty leagues to hedge and trade for (and use 1 or 2 more roster spots on) Ball and/or Hillman – or deal Anderson now at his peak value?
Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Those of us who picked up Randle in dynasty leagues after DeMarco Murray suffered an injury very late in 2014 were looking at a potential fantasy gold mine. Rumors circulated that Murray may not re-sign and Randle would become feature back in Dallas in front of Lance Dunbar. While Dunbar, a restricted free agent, may not return, many variables exist which have already negatively impacted and may further impact Randle’s dynasty value. He’s surrounded by off-field issues- namely, an arrest in connection with a Kansas domestic violence incident and current NFL investigation which could result in a six-game suspension in 2015. Additionally, Jerry Jones has recently stated he wants DeMarco Murray to be a Cowboy for life. Murray may very well be re-signd, guaranteeing Randle remains the handcuff/RB2 in Dallas. However, rumors out of Dallas state if Murray does not re-sign, the Cowboys may take Georgia RB Todd Gurley as their first round pick at 27 (if he is available). And then, there is the Adrian Peterson situation which needs to play out, since other rumors have AP headed to Dallas if Murray does leave. All of these factors hurt Randle’s dynasty league value, as it appears increasingly likely that he will not be the lead back in Dallas.
Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
