Kyle Soppe names 6 players he views differently than the Expert Consensus.
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Ranks are a funny thing. Reasonable minds can differ, statistics can tell a variety of stories, yadda yadda yadda. You’re not here to hear me beat around the bush … I’m going to make sure I join leagues with these experts in an effort to prove my point. This is what I think of the names below compared to the ECR.
Yoenis Cespedes (Soppe Rank: 31, Expert Consensus Rank: 49)
The 29-year-old has two new homes this season: Detroit is where he will play his home games and my fantasyfantasy team is a place he will routinely be producing high-end fantasyfantasy numbers for the first time in his career. Over the last three seasons, his raw hitting ability is statistically similar to that of fantasyfantasy first-rounder Carlos Gomez, but with an edge in Contact percentage. I’m not claiming to be a genius, but it takes hits to produce counting stats and a strong contact rate makes that possible. Cespedes has displayed consistent power the second he put on an MLB jersey and when you consider that he was able to produce reasonable numbers last season (89 runs, 22 homers, 64 extra base hits, 100 RBI, and a .260 batting average) despite uncharacteristically struggling against the fastball, his ceiling should be viewed as considerably higher than what we saw in 2014. He’s got a pair of talented Martinez’s hitting around him and a machine in Miguel Cabrera that improves the fantasyfantasy potential of all those in this potent Detroit offense. Last season, we saw 16 of the top-25 ranked hitters (via Yahoo!) hit at least 25 homers and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Cespedes join the group this season.
Jason Kipnis (Soppe Rank: 33, Expert Consensus Rank: 75)
JKip was an elite option worthy of second round consideration less than 12 months ago … did I miss the baseball version of Space Jam where a player suddenly losses all of his talent? Assuming I didn’t miss a bunch of little aliens in a trench coat, this soon-to-be 28-year-old is still a versatile option at a shallow position that is now a part of a very good Indians lineup: what’s not to like? The oblique injury limited his production last year, and while the dip in statistics is less than ideal, are we really feeling good about drafting 74 players ahead of a player with 20-homer 30-steal upside in the middle infield? He will open the year batting in the bottom half of the order, not a bad thing for his RBI ceiling, and a move to the two-spot for the aging Nick Swisher is a very real possibility. Robinson Cano and Anthony Rendon are the unquestioned top tier players at second base, but I fully expect Kipnis to challenge for the top spot of tier two, a season that would result in him being an absolute steal for his current price tag among other analysts.
Kendrys Morales (Soppe Rank: 137, Expert Consensus Rank: 303)
I’m not going to say that drafting Morales is going to ensure you a glorious fantasy season, but given his industry wide price tag, he comes with no risk. Zip, nadda, none. Any professional athlete is a creature of habit to some extent (even Johnny Football loves routine, though his habits tend to work against him), something Morales simply didn’t have last season after missing Spring Training and changing jerseys midway through the season. In the four seasons prior to that, his average stat line was essentially that of Anthony Rizzo in 2014. Now, I’m not suggesting that he is going to outshine the Cubbies star, but the fact that those type of numbers are even within the realm of possibility makes him a bargain selection at his current ECR. Morales should get a bump up in your rankings given his spot in the middle of an ultra-aggressive Royals batting order, as they put pressure on opposing defenses and take the extra base. Look for his RBI total to net his fantasy owners a profit, not to mention a plus-home run total and potentially a reasonable run count.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Cashner (82, 152) and Zack Wheeler (109, 185)
Adrian Gonzalez (Soppe Rank: 55, Expert Consensus Rank: 38)
Let me start by saying that this one hurts. I’ve been heavily invested in Gonzalez for the better part of a decade, a streak that is likely to end this year. His league-leading 111 runs batted in a season ago jump off the page at you, but can you bank on him even approaching that total this season? No. No you can’t. Even if the roster around him had improved, counting on 49.1 percent of his at-bats coming with runners on base and him slashing .310/.372/.531 in such situations would have been a long shot. That’s not the case though, the lineup around him is considerably less explosive than it was in 2014. Sure, Jimmy Rollins is a nice professional hitter and I actually think Howie Kendrick can have a career-year from a fantasy standpoint, but there is no comparison between those two and a question mark in Joc Pederson to Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon, and Matt Kemp. The argument here is simple: don’t chase last season’s production as there are a handful of corner infielders currently ranked behind Gonzalez in the ECR that will offer better production this season.
Jon Lester (Soppe Rank: 73, Expert Consensus Rank: 54)
The move to the National League parlayed with a career year in 2014 have fantasy owners labeling this southpaw as a bonafide fantasy ace. Is he though? I’ll apply a similar train of thought as I did for Kipnis: how much can possibly change in less than a year? A little more than nine months ago, Lester was a nice pitcher with a 3.74 career ERA, essentially making him a glorified Matt Garza. That’s not to say that you should completely overlook the summer of elite production from the 31-year-old, but is that the sort of resume you really want in a SP2 (or an SP1 if you elect to wait on pitching)? As a fantasy community, we love the thought of a spike in fantasy value, and while the trip to the Senior Circuit is a statistically advantageous move, let’s not put Lester in the same class as a Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmerman, or an Adam Wainwright. Heck, give me the rock solid James Shields or the massive upside of Matt Harvey. Lester’s skill set would have made him a fringe SP1 five years ago … but not in this golden age of starting pitching.
George Springer (Soppe Rank: 80, Expert Consensus Rank: 44)
Before you dismiss me as crazy for not loving this big-time prospect that appears destined for greatness … take a deep breath, because I do love him. I’m on board with the 30/30 upside of a kid who is six months shy of his 26th birthday, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. He is going to be great, but I’m not so sure that we see enough of it in 2015 to justify building a fantasy team around him. Even the best up-and-coming talents go through their fair share of struggles (even the mighty Mike Trout), so there is inherit risk involved in drafting a player with little experience. His insanely high HR/FB rate last season in his 78 professional games is going to be awfully difficult to repeat, and a drop there would make his flaws (strikeout percentage and GB/FB rate) more impactful in terms of his fantasy counting numbers. I also worry that his inconsistencies (even if you’re a believer, it is hard to forecast any youngster for consistency) are more magnified by the inconsistent nature of his teammates. Chris Carter, Jonathan Singleton, and Evan Gattis can all hit the ball a country mile, but they are far from well-rounded hitters that offer protection. I’m also of the train of thought that Jose Altuve is unlikely to repeat as a batting champion and considering he doesn’t draw many walks, that would result in fewer RBI opportunities for Springer. Again, I don’t hate Springer, but consider this: Starling Marte finished last season as Yahoo’s 62nd ranked player (the exact middle ground of my rank and the ECR for Springer this season) while contributing 73 runs, 13 homers, 56 RBI, 30 steals, and a .291 batting average. Springer probably hits for more power than that, but the 30 steals may be his ceiling and I’d bet against him hitting .275, let alone .290. I may be a tad low on him due to my belief that veteran players are the way to go in redraft leagues, but this promising Astro is more likely to finish with worse overall numbers than Marte in 2014.
Honorable Mention: Dustin Pedroia (144, 93) and Jeff Samardzija (108, 79)
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Kyle is a staff writer for RotoExperts. You can follow him on Twitter @unSOPable23.
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