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NFL Mock Draft Analysis: First Round

Jameis Winston is likely to be the first player off the board in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Jameis Winston is likely to be the first player off the board in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Before I wrote for FantasyPros, it was my go-to site for all things fantasy. As shown in this BBC video, the wisdom of crowds can be shockingly accurate at simplifying complex problems such as predicting the weather, guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar, and figuring out who you’re going to start at WR3 this week.

With early rookie drafts in full-swing, I wanted to use the wisdom of crowds that has been so helpful in aiding my fantasy football decision making to predict the likely landing spot of some high-profile rookies. Due to the fact that most mock drafts only cover the first round, I was only able to get enough data on possible first-round destinations. Overall, 19 players playing fantasy positions (QB/RB/WR/TE) were selected within the first 32 picks. We’ll take a look at where the 73 mock-strong crowd (thanks to walterfootball.com for compiling such a thorough database)  sees some of 2015’s top rookies ending up in the NFL draft, and some of the possible fantasy implications.

GUARANTEED 1st ROUND PICK (1st round in 100% of mocks)

Jameis Winston QB, Florida St
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Buccaneers, 90% of all mocks.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Jets 4%, Titans 3%, Rams 3%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Winston could fall into a dream scenario with emerging targets Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins in Tampa.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A rookie head coach who was a former defensive coordinator, a relative lack of targets, and the New York media make the Jets a less than perfect landing spot for the talented pocket passer from Florida State.

Marcus Mariota QB, Oregon
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Jets, 46% of all mocks.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Titans 23%, Rams 11%, Buccaneers 8%, Eagles 7%, Browns 4%, Giants 1%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: A few mock drafts had the Eagles trading up for Mariota if he began to slip. You would think that being familiar with Chip Kelly’s system should help him produce at a QB1 level from day one.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: With a dearth of WR talent, an unstable coaching/ownership situation, and what would be a vocal malcontent of a backup in Johnny Manziel, it would be less than advantageous (to put it kindly) for Mariota to start his career as a Cleveland Brown.

Amari Cooper WR, Alabama
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Raiders, 29% of all mocks.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Rams 21%, Jets 16%, Vikings 14%, Chiefs 6%, Browns 4%, 49ers 3%, Giants 3%, Bears, 2%, Washington 2%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: With enough speed to get deep and impeccable route running ability, Michael Crabtree’s 2012 is Cooper’s floor in San Fran.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Unless they cut Pierre Garcon, I don’t know how Cooper is going to fit in Washington at all. He would have a ton of competition for targets from a less than reliable QB, and a volatile ownership/coaching situation as well.

Kevin White WR, West Virginia
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Raiders, 48% of all mocks. Safe to say, if Oakland doesn’t take a lineman, defensive player, or trade down, they’re going with either Cooper or White.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Rams 13%, Vikings 11%, Jets 8%, 49ers 8%, Browns 7%, Washington 1%, Jacksonville 1%, Giants 1%, Dolphins 1%, Texans 1%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: If White can play with the speed he showed at the combine, he could be a rare player who transcends his team situation.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: If drafted as a Viking, a relatively crowded WR room may delay his ascension.

PROBABLE 1st ROUND PICK (1st round in 75%+ of all mock drafts)

DeVante Parker WR, Louisville, 1st round 96%
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Browns, 33% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Vikings 27%, 49ers 13% Chiefs 12%, Texans 6%, Dolphins 5%, Rams 1%, Eagles 1%, Panthers 1%, Ravens 1%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The competition for targets in Cleveland is nearly nonexistent. Parker would start from day one and likely be a Kelvin Benjamin grade target-hog.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Much like White, none of the options for Parker is particularly disastrous. If I had to choose one it would be the Texans due to their unstable QB situation, and DeAndre Hopkins‘ likely role as the team’s No. 1 target.

Melvin Gordon RB, Wisconsin, 1st round 83%
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Chargers or Colts, 19% of all mocks selected in for each team.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Lions 15%, Ravens 13%, Patriots 7%, Browns 5%, Dolphins 3%, 49ers 3%, Cowboys 3%, Seahawks 3%, Falcons 2%, Giants 2%, Vikings 2%, Cardinals 2%, Panthers 2%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: If the Colts decide to take the plunge on the talented Badger in the 1st round, Gordon would be a borderline 1st round fantasy pick as the lead-back on an explosive offense.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Fantasy owners would throw a fit if the 49ers decided to place Gordon in committee with the highly regarded Carlos Hyde for the near future.

POSSIBLE 1st ROUND PICK(1st round in 50%+ of all mock drafts)

Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia, 73% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Ravens, 19% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Chargers 13%, Cowboys 13%, Colts 13%, Patriots 9%, Cardinals 8%, Seahawks 8%, Texans 4%, Lions 4%, Jets 2%, Saints 2%, Broncos 2%, Packers 2%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: If the Ravens are patient with Gurley’s return from injury, they could have a back with comparable talent to the great Jamal Lewis.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: With his handling of the Tony Romo injury situation, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones proved that he doesn’t value his players’ welfare. Coming off a major injury, this is not a great organization for Gurley to be a part of.

Jaelen Strong WR, Arizona State, 69% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Chiefs, 34% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Seahawks 18%, Browns 12%, Ravens 8%, Patriots 6%, Dolphins 4%, 49ers 4%, Colts 4%, Broncos 4%, Texans 2%, Steelers 2%, Packers 2%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: With the possible release of Mike Wallace, Strong could step in right away and post impressive numbers on an emerging Dolphins offense.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong’s ability to get vertical might be wasted on Alex Smith in the Chiefs offense.

Dorial Green-Beckham WR, Oklahoma, 63% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Seahawks, 22% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Chiefs 20%, 49ers 17%, Ravens 11%, Browns 7%, Patriots 7%, Cowboys 4%, Rams 2%, Texans 2%, Bengals 2%, Panthers 2%, Lions 2%, Colts 2%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: While I’m tempted to say the Seahawks after seeing Chris Matthews‘ tremendous Super Bowl performance (Green-Beckham is a similar, but more athletic receiver), it would be extremely interesting to see him snatching deep passes from Joe Flacco in Baltimore.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: While it makes some sense for the Bengals to add another play-maker, playing alongside A.J. Green in Cincinnati would cap Green-Beckham’s upside.

ABOVE THE MENDOZA LINE (1st round in 20%+ of all mock drafts)

Maxx Williams TE, Minnesota, 44% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Broncos, 42% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Seahawks 16%, Ravens 10%, Packers 10%, Browns 7%, Dolphins 3%, Bengals 3%, Steelers 3%, Cardinals 3%, Cowboys 3%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Peyton Manning has a long track record of turning whatever TE given him into a fantasy TE1, it would be interesting to see how he would connect with the rookie Golden Gopher. After Manning inevitably retires, the Broncos have a strong backup plan in place with Brock Oesweiler, ensuring a high fantasy floor for all Denver targets.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: While Seattle makes use of its tight ends in the passing game, the amount of targets are simply not enough to catapult a Seahawk into the TE1 discussion anytime soon.

Devin Funchess WR/TE, Michigan, 27% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Seahawks, 25% of all mocks selected in.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Browns 20%, Ravens 15%, Broncos 15%, Eagles 5%, Chiefs 5%, Panthers 5%, Lions 5%, Patriots 5%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Funchess has the size to be a red zone dominator in Seattle. The team tried an experiment with a WR/TE tweener in Chris Harper, and might use an athlete like Funchess creatively.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: I don’t see exactly how Funchess would make sense in Carolina, given his extremely similar skill set to Kelvin Benjamin.

Sammie Coates WR, Auburn, 22% 1st round
MOST LIKELY DESTINATION: Seahawks or Ravens, 31% of all mocks selected for both teams.

OTHER POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Patriots 13%, 49ers 6%, Browns 6%, Chiefs 6%, Packers 6%

BEST CASE SCENARIO: While unlikely, it would be very interesting to see a receiving corps consisting of of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, and the hyper-athletic Coates.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: A prospect this raw would be best served by a team with an established QB (not Cleveland), or one who can get him the ball down-field (not Kansas City).

ON THE RADAR (1st round in 10%+ of all mock drafts)

Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA, 18% 1st round
Hundley’s most mocked team is the Eagles (4 times), who may view him as a consolation prize if they miss out on Marcus Mariota. Teams also selecting Hundley in multiple mocks are the Rams and Texans (3 mocks each). The Browns, Cardinals, and Broncos all selected him in one mock each.

Philadelphia and Houston seem like the best possible situations should Hundley be taken in the first round. The Eagles seem to be seeking a mobile QB to orchestrate their high-powered offense, while the Texans boast QB guru Bill O’Brien as their coach and DeAndre Hopkins on the outside. If he is somehow over-drafted by the Rams, it creates an awkward situation in which a former, fairly young franchise savior (Sam Bradford) must co-exist with another 1st round QB.

Devin Smith WR, Ohio State, 12% 1st round
It seems that the most popular place for Smith to land is in New England as five of his nine 1st round mocks have him coming off the board at pick 32 to the Patriots. Smith was also mocked to the Dolphins, 49ers, Browns, and Chiefs.

It would be a crime against fantasy football to take a player whose main skill is getting open deep, and drafting him to the Chiefs, who throw the fewest number of deep passes in the NFL.

Breshad Perriman WR, UCF, 10% 1st round
A Mel Kiper favorite, Perriman was only mocked in the first round seven times – twice to the Chiefs and Ravens, once to the Dolphins, Browns, and Seahawks. Due to a minor injury, Perriman had to sit out the NFL combine, but his stock is projected to rise.

Also, Phillip Dorsett was mocked twice to the Seahawks and once to the 49ers, giving him a 4% 1st round selection percentage. There were a few outliers as one mock each had T.J. Yeldon going to the Patriots, Jay Ajayi to the Colts, Rashad Greene to the Seahawks, and Garrett Grayson to the Browns. While they may turn out to be fine players in time, you do not want to make a bet on any of those players going in round one.

Keep in mind, these projections are going to change quite drastically as the draft draws nearer. Stay tuned for a macro-analysis of how mock drafters see the 2015 NFL draft playing out on a monthly basis.

Brian Tesch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.

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