The tight end position has changed this offseason with two top scorers having changed teams. If there was a question about who the top player at the position is, it has now been completely cleared up. Jimmy Graham moves to a pass offense that threw it 205 times less than the one he enjoyed playing in. Tight end seems like the most congested position of all the groups as all the players from 4-16 could be similar fantasy producers, and score within 1 or 2 points of one another in any given week. This position is a prime candidate as the position to wait on come draft day, unless you somehow have Gronk fall into your lap below what should be a top 15 ADP.
1. Rob Gronkowski (NE)
At this point in his career, it is probably easier to tell you the reasons why Gronk shouldn’t be #1 among tight ends than list why he should. The only reason Gronk wouldn’t be the top tight end in scoring in 2015 would be due to injury. The guy has 54 touchdowns in 65 career games. Gronk was one of just two tight ends to surpass 1,000 yards last season and Brady threw to the tight end 28% of the time in 2014 (the second highest number in the league).
2. Jimmy Graham (SEA)
Even with one of the biggest changes in the offseason, Graham retains his spot as a top two tight end, but now looks firmly behind Rob Gronkowski on the totem pole. Even being hampered by injury last season, Graham finished top five among tight ends in these categories: third in total fantasy point, third in fantasy points per game, third in targets, fifth in yards, and 4th in touchdowns. He will now be adding his presence in the red zone to the Seattle Seahawks where no player caught more touchdowns than RUNNING BACK Marshawn Lynch (4). The move seems to limit Graham’s upside, but he still seems locked in as the second option among tight ends.
3. Greg Olsen (CAR)
Olsen is coming off the finest season of his career. He was rewarded with a three-year contract extension that keeps him in town through 2018. The Gregulator put up his first 1,000-yard season and was just one of two tight ends to do so last season. He seems like a lock for 100 targets as he has seen at least that volume in each of the last three years. Besides setting new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points, Olsen tied his second his second highest yards per catch and touchdown numbers. With a lackluster receiving corps outside of Kelvin Benjamin, Olsen seems primed for another solid season, with some potential for growth in the touchdown department.
4. Travis Kelce (KC)
Despite playing less snaps than former teammate Anthony Fasano, 671 to 668 respectively, Kelce made the bigger fantasy impact and finished ninth among tight ends in standard scoring. Considering the fact that the guy is called things like “Mini-Gronk” and “Zeus”, it gives you an idea of how highly he is thought of by his team and teammates; the background numbers also back it up. Kelce finished with the second highest catch percentage (catches/targets) among tight ends with 80 or more targets hauling in 77% of balls thrown his way. Kelce also led all tight ends with more than 15 targets in yards per target at 9.91. With an increase in snaps, Jeremy Maclin on the outside to take the top off the defense, and a QB who threw it to the tight end position 26.7% of the time last season, the sky is the limit for Kelce.
5. Martellus Bennett (CHI)
The “Black Unicorn” is another player coming off a career year last season when he set career highs in all the counting categories. Among tight ends, Bennett was second in targets, first in receptions and third in yards. The only area Bennett lacks is touchdowns, as he has scored just 16 in the last three seasons as a starter (1 with New York Giants). New offensive coordinator Adam Gase loves using his tight ends in the red zone (29 touchdowns to the tight ends over his last 2 seasons in Denver) so this is a number that could see an increase next season. Bennett also has a chance to move up in the Bears hierarchy in the receiving game without Brandon Marshall and Marc Trestman’s affinity for Matt Forte in town. Bennett played in over 90% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last season and seems like a player who won’t leave the field next season in Chicago.
6. Julius Thomas (JAC)
Orange Julius chased the money in a similar fashion to ex-teammate Eric Decker last season and was rewarded as the highest paid tight end in the league. Thomas was affected by an injury in the final 7 games of the season last year, where he either sat or was rarely used. He still finished with 12 touchdown receptions, with 9 of those coming in the first five weeks of the season. Other than the touchdowns, Thomas’ numbers were down across the board and he will now be leaving the joy of Peyton Manning for an unproven quarterback in Blake Bortles. The Jaguars targeted tight ends at the third lowest rate last season, but that should change with Julius in town. Thomas could be a player targeted 120+ times next season, and while he will not score touchdowns at the same rate without Manning, his receptions and receiving yards seem primed for a boost.
7. Coby Fleener (IND)
Fleener might be the most boom or bust of all tight ends in the top 10, but when he booms, he booms big. Fleener had a yard per target number of 8.41 last season, just behind a guy named Rob Gronkowski, for fifth among tight ends with 40 or more targets. Fleener is a vertical seam stretcher who has showed inconsistent hands in his career, having some awful drops that have caused owners heart attacks as Luck put it on the money. What will really help Fleener next season is the presence of Frank Gore, and a play action game that teams will have to respect, allowing the lanky tight end to use his 4.5 speed to get open down the seam. Fleener and Dwayne Allen form one of the best, if not the best, tight end tandems in the league, but Fleener is the preferred target in the open field.
8. Zach Ertz (PHI)
Ertz is a prototypical receiving tight end in a high-powered passing offense with the Eagles. He finished 14th among tight ends in standard scoring last season despite scoring just three touchdowns. He finished 1 yard outside the top ten in receiving among tight ends. Ertz set a franchise receiving record in Week 16 with 15 catches and Chip Kelly has raved about him this offseason in the midst of all the other transactions. Ertz will now have to help fill the void left by the departure of Jeremy Maclin and should be more involved in the red zone than he was last season. Look for Ertz to take a big step forward in his third year, when tight ends really start to assert themselves into the NFL.
9. Jordan Cameron (MIA)
Cameron took his talents to South Beach this past offseason and allowed the Dolphins to let Charles Clay walk. The Dolphins have one of the easiest strength of schedules for tight ends in the upcoming season, and should he stay healthy, Cameron should be the main beneficiary of that. He will also move from quarterback purgatory to what must look like one of the best situations in the league in his eyes. Cameron posted an insane 17.7 yard per catch number last season showing off his athleticism and yet, did so on just 24 catches. With two six foot receivers on the outside, Cameron will be the teams primary receiver in the end zone, so there will be an increase on the two scores he had last season. Look for a nice rebound from Cameron should he stay concussion free.
10. Antonio Gates (SD)
Gates proved to be the ageless wonder last season as he finished second at the position among tight ends. Gates’ 12 touchdowns in 2014 tied for the lead among tight ends and more often than not, when he was scoring, he was doing so more than once a game (9 of his TDs came in just 4 games). With Rivers all healed up and a few more weapons on the outside, the now not so nimble footed Gates should still be featured in the red zone and as an outlet to move the chains. He seems unlikely to finish as high as number two again though, as he has really trailed off at the end of the last two seasons. He’ll play this season as a 35-year-old, and did not post a 100 yard game for the second time in three seasons.
Next 5 Up: Dwayne Allen (IND), Charles Clay (BUF), Jason Witten (DAL), Kyle Rudolph (MIN), and Jordan Reed (WAS)
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You can follow Stagg Party on Twitter @pyroman1ac.
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