Should Alex Rodriguez owners buy, sell or hold?
Following his year away from the game, Yankees DH/3B Alex Rodriguez has returned with a vengeance, surprising everyone. While we all know that A-Rod was once one heck of a ball player, he is nearly 40 years old and has admittedly used PEDs to increase his productivity. But for fantasy owners, all that stuff doesn’t matter. All we care about is pure statistics and his value to our, as my wife puts it, ‘pretend’ baseball teams. They’re real by the way, they are just in a fantasy league!
Alex Rodriguez had so many question marks entering the season that he was not a hot commodity at draft time. He was owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues on Opening Day and just last Wednesday, he was owned in just 57% of leagues. That number has skyrocketed and he is now owned in over 99% of leagues. Owners saw that the old man was putting up numbers. Love him or hate him, the numbers are all that matters.
If you are an owner, the question is what do you do? Play it safe and try to sell high now? Hold onto him and hope he continues to perform at a high level while risk him losing value? Do you go shop for him now if you are in need of help? All these questions are reasonable and each carries their own pros and cons.
The conservative thing to do would probably be try and sell high right now. Targeting the Yankees fan in your league would be a good idea! Although most intelligent owners aren’t going to give up a top-tier player, you may be able to swing a trade for him that gives you a up-and-coming guy. Perhaps Shane Greene or Mookie Betts? A young, relatively unproven guy with high upside would be a great candidate, especially for dynasty and keeper league owners. If someone is willing to buy, especially in those kind of leagues, it may work out in your favor.
He is hitting .286 though with four home runs, 11 RBI and 10 runs scored so far on the season and is ranked fifth (in my ESPN league) out of all third baseman. Holding onto him could pay huge dividends if he continues to produce at a high level. If he stays on his current pace, he would hit over 40 home runs and produce well over 100 RBI. While that is likely not realistic, the numbers he is posting to start the year are impressive. You could hold onto him and hope he produces 20-25 home runs and 75-80 RBI and easily have him exceed value considering his ADP was 215, if you didn’t pick him up off waivers. But if he cools off and his value decreases, your chance to sell high will have come and gone.
If you love you some A-Rod or are in need of offensive help, see if you can get him on the cheap. Talk his owner into giving him up, and convince them he is not going to continue producing at this level all year. He very well may not. He even said he will have to wait until he gets to the 100 at-bat mark before he can give himself a true evaluation. But he does seem to be locked in pretty well and able to hit the fastball which was most analyst’s biggest concern. If his owner is in need of help at a different position, say starting pitcher, and he is willing to take a middle-of-the-road starter, you may find yourself on the winning end of that deal.
Every A-Rod scenario provides upside and risk. He is a guy that is loved and extremely hated, and you may be able to use that to your advantage as well. It’s definitely worth shooting out an email or talking to your counterparts, asking if there is interest or if they are willing to sell. Sell your side of the argument enthusiastically and come out on top! He has skyrocketed up the Fantasy Pros Depth Chart and is, at least for the time being, a premier player not only in fantasy, but in MLB.
Dan Lucia is a correspondent at Fantasy Pros. To read more from Dan, check out his archive and follow him @DmanLucia.
