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Prospect Report: Carlos Correa

DFC-LogoJosh Shepardson gushes about uber-talented shortstop prospect Carlos Correa.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Josh head to Daily Fantasy Cafe

The June 2012 MLB Amateur Draft produced two of the best players in the minors. Those two players, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, went one and two, respectively, to the Astros and Twins. Both players will likely be compared to one another for the duration of their careers given their draft spots, and the future looks exceptionally bright for each. Injuries shortened the 2014 campaigns for the two burgeoning stars, but both are playing very well at the Double-A level. Today, I’m going to shine the spotlight on Correa specifically.

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The shortstop prospect ranked near the top of all major prospect lists entering the year ranking fifth at FanGraphs, fourth at Baseball America, third at Baseball Prospectus and third at MLB.com. The 20-year-old received an invite to spring training for the Astros and impressed onlookers. Yes, spring training stats don’t mean much, but he did more than hold his own. Correa totaled 43 at-bats and hit .326/.370/.488 with a pair of homers. More importantly, he earned rave reviews for his work ethic. Every meaningful scouting report on Correa I’ve ever read highlights his drive for success. That’s a scary combination when factoring in his tools.

Correa projects to hit for a very high average and plus power, and the cries for moving him off shortstop are quieter than they once were. FanGraphs has pegged Correa with a future hit tool of 60 and a game power tool of 55 (on a 20-to-80 scale). The grades are even more favorable at MLB.com, where he has a 70 hit tool and 65 power tool. If Correa hits either future projection, his bat would play anywhere on the diamond, and that makes him insanely valuable at shortstop. Putting it bluntly, shortstops stink offensively. That’s not exactly breaking news in the fantasy community, but it warrants mentioning.

For those not paying attention, he’s tearing the cover off the ball for Double-A Corpus Christi. Through 23 games and 107 plate appearances, Correa is hitting .383/.458/.702 with five homers, 11 stolen bases (with zero caught stealing), an 11.2% walk rate and a solid 18.7% strikeout rate. He’s showing patience that belies his youth and keeping his strikeout rate south of 20% while hitting for massive power (.319 ISO). It’s important to note that Corpus Christi plays in the Texas League, which according to a study at MiLB.com, was the most hitter-friendly Double-A League from 2008-2013. Having said that, the gap in offensive production between Double-A leagues is far smaller than those between Triple-A leagues. Furthermore, according to StatCorner, while Corpus Christi’s home ballpark has a right-handed batter park factor of 120 for homers, it actually reduces doubles/triples (88 park factor) and is basically neutral for run scoring (99 park factor). Interestingly, only one of his five homers has been hit at home this year.

Scouting box scores can be dangerous, but Correa’s production lines up well with his lofty prospect standing. What is the industry saying after his hot start, though? Correa cracked Baseball Prospectus’ Monday Morning Ten Pack (May 4). Prospect evaluator Kate Morrison lauded his first step and arm, which bodes well for him sticking at shortstop. From an offensive perspective, she mentioned that he showed good plate coverage and punished mistakes in the middle of the plate.

Correa topped the May 1 Prospect Hot Sheet at Baseball America. The Correa chatter at Baseball America didn’t end there. Matt Eddy published an All-Prospect Team for April, and –shocker — Correa was named the shortstop. Eddy noted that Correa led the minors with 17 extra-base hits in the month of April and produced more runs created than any other player that month too. Finally, J.J. Cooper addressed the question of who the best prospect in the minors is with Kris Bryant and Addison Russell now in the majors. Cooper polled as he put it, a cross-section of upper level front office officials to help answer this question. Seven officials casted votes for a specific player. One vote was cast for Corey Seager, one was cast for Buxton and five votes were for Correa. Cooper pointed out there could be some recency bias at play, but he also noted Correa answered some important questions, namely whether he’d lose a step after breaking his leg last year. He also points out that Correa is about 10 pounds heavier, stronger and faster.

Coming into the year, it would have been very ambitious to project Correa seeing time in the majors this year. Now, it might not be that crazy. Jed Lowrie was the Opening Day starting shortstop for the Astros, but he’ll be on the shelf until after the All-Star break after undergoing surgery for a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Astros have temporarily plugged the hole with Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar. Neither are starting-caliber players on a playoff contender. Wait a second, did I say playoff contender? The Astros lead the American League West as of May 5, and their seven game lead over the next closest club is the biggest division lead of any team. The Astros are unlikely to rush Correa just to appease the fan base in a quest to reach the postseason, but if Correa keeps raking, it’s not out of the question he’ll get a look. The club took a lot of grief for keeping George Springer in the minors for the entire 2013 season, but the club was a laughingstock and had little incentive to start his service time clock. The more the Astros win while getting little to no production from shortstop, the louder the cries will be for Correa to get a look. He’s not worth stashing in standard leagues yet, but deep leaguers with some bench flexibility wouldn’t be crazy to stash Correa now.

Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.


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