Tom Brady will start 2015 watching his teammates from the sidelines

The sports universe was a buzz yesterday as the NFL handed down punishment on Tom Brady and the Patriots. Naturally, as fantasy players, the questions of how this affects both Tom Brady and his teammates arise.

Regardless of whether you agree with the punishment, it has an immediate impact and we’ve asked the experts two questions about the news. Simply put, where should Brady be drafted now and what kind of hit do his teammates take. Keep reading for the pundits’ responses.

Q1. Brady was valued as a 4th-5th round pick prior to the suspension. When should fantasy owners target him now?

“Brady will still be a viable fantasy starter once he returns from suspension, but he’s off my draft board completely for 2015. While his suspension will likely be knocked down to two or three games after appeal, drafting Brady forces owners to carry two quarterbacks early in the season when roster spots are better used on depth at other positions. If you’re set on drafting Brady, try to grab him no earlier than the 7th or 8th round and pair him with someone like Ryan Tannehill or Joe Flacco, who both have favorable schedules over the first few weeks. ”
– Justin Boone (The Score)

“Generally I’m more concerned with what a player can offer me late in the season than he does at the outset, but four of 15 fantasy relevant games is a steep suspension. I had Brady ranked as my 6th QB, so somewhere around the latter end of that 5th round value according to current ADP trends, but it is going to be tough to pass on upside QBs like Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning to take Brady. That said, for me, he’s warranted a 7th or 8th round selection if you miss out on the earlier QBs or other later round picks with upside. Brady should offer plenty of value in Weeks 6-16, so if you’re the type who likes to wait at the position, treading water and aiming for a 3-2/2-3 record through five weeks (much like the Pats will through their first four games), you’ll be happy to own him. Of course, this all assumes that Brady doesn’t see his ban reduced on appeal – if he winds up in the two game range I may be just as happy taking a discount of a couple of rounds and gutting out the first two weeks.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

“Owners shouldn’t value him as their QB1, that’s for sure. Brady narrowly finished as a QB1 last year and drops two spots when you rank on a FPPG basis. Adding in a replacement level QB for four missed games leaves you with an overall QB16 or so in FPPG, which means Brady is suited to be your QB2. I’ll certainly jump if Brady falls far enough to be my QB2, but I won’t draft as a QB1 because then you’re forcing yourself into another draft move (getting your replacement QB) which could cause you to miss on other draft values at RB or WR.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

“A 4 game suspension is practically 1/3 of your regular season so that’s a big hurdle to clear. In that case, I would target Brady at the end of the QB1 run in your league & try to get by with, say, an Andy Dalton for the 1st 4 weeks. If reduced to 2 games, I’d target Brady in the middle of the QB1 run in your league. (Keep in mind that when Gronk was totally healthy, Brady was the #2 fantasy QB from Week 5 ’til season’s end.)”
– Tom Poisal (Top Tier Football)

“Where to target any quarterback, not only Brady, is subject to plenty of debate among fantasy owners and analysts, but it’s safe to say that Brady is unlikely to land on any of my re-draft rosters in leagues that start only one QB. Instead of adding a second (backup) QB in those leagues, I prefer to use that roster spot for a high-upside RB or WR and the suspension, even if reduced, would require rostering a second QB if I owned Brady as well. For fantasy owners comfortable with using multiple roster spots on QBs, I’d draft Brady after all of my top-seven QBs (Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Peyton, Cam, Brees and Big Ben) were off the board and look to pair him with someone like Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

“The 4th-5th round range is a bit early for my taste even if Tom Brady was projected to see the field for all 16 games. I generally like waiting to draft a quarterback and with New England’s handsome signal caller expected to miss some time, I wouldn’t snag him before the 8th or 9th round.”
– Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)

Q2. How much of a hit does the news have on his Patriots’ teammates?

“Gronk’s ability to put up huge numbers will be slightly diminished with Brady out of the lineup, but he’s still the Patriots’ top receiving option and the best tight end in the game. Hopefully the Brady suspension will scare people away, allowing savvy fantasy owners to get Gronk at discounted rate. With or without Brady early in the season, Gronkowski should be a first-round pick in all leagues. Edelman will suffer most from Brady’s absence, making him more of a mid-round pick. ”
– Justin Boone (The Score)

“Despite Brady’s suspension, I am still comfortable drafting Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman near their current ADP’s. With Jimmy Graham’s departure from New Orleans, Gronk should remain the top fantasy tight end and Edelman still has a solid chance to approach the 90 catch mark even with Brady missing a few games. Hopefully Jimmy Garoppolo can keep the wheels on the wagon while Brady is out.”
– Jeff Brubach (The Fake Football)

“To start with, Gronk is gonna Gronk. It’s all he knows how to do. He’s the unquestioned #1 TE for reasons related to his own talent. With the sudden wide gap between he and his peers given the new landing spots of Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas, and I wouldn’t change my draft day strategy as it relates to #87. Jimmy Garoppolo is an unknown commodity, but his game plan will continue to focus on Gronkowski and he should be able to get his big TE the ball. Again, you’re playing to win in weeks 14-16… even if you’re anxious about a couple of down weeks from Gronkowski to start the year, the floor is pretty high here. As for the others in the passing game, the story remains the same. I’d expect more production out of Julian Edelman than Brandon LaFell in the first month of the season, but I’m not letting Tom’s suspension taint their season long outlook.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

“Personally, I expect Brady’s suspension to be reduced (probably to two games), which could minimize the impact for both Brady owners and the Patriots skill-position players. During Brady’s absence, I expect LeGarrette Blount and the running game in general to get a boost, but note that Blount is also suspended for Week 1 as well. Among the pass-catchers, If Jimmy Garoppolo relies on Rob Gronkowski as his safety valve, Gronk could possibly see a spike in terms of his percentage of targets, which would appear logical. On the other hand, I’d expect the production of the team’s wide receivers (Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, etc.) to dip during the suspension. That said, the changes in my rankings for Blount (up), Edelman (down) and LaFell (down) will be relatively modest.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

“His teammates don’t take much of a hit at all. LeGarrette Blount sees a small boost, as the Patriots will likely run more, but you have to account for potential lower-value rushes (less effective without defenses afraid of Brady) and/or less red zone opportunities. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell see a small decrease, barely any for Edelman in PPR leagues. As for Gronk, his value shouldn’t decrease at all. Garoppolo knows Gronk is his best weapon, and I’d be thrilled to see Gronkowski slip into the second round. Gronk could easily be the steal of 2015 drafts if people overreact too much.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

“Gronkowski remains the #1 TE in fantasy whether Brady is out 4 games or 2 games. A Brady-less Pats offense would probably result in more rushing attempts, so LeGarrette Blount moves up a bit on draft boards. I’d drop Edelman to the bottom of the WR2 range if 4 games holds up, and just a spot or two if the suspension drops to 2 games.”
– Tom Poisal (Top Tier Football)

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Thanks to the experts for shooting off their rapid reactions to the Tom Brady news. For more from the experts, be sure to follow them on Twitter.